THE FIFTY DOLLA HOLLA

Quite pleased to see $TWTR gap and go this morning. The price action very much resembles what $FB did back in 2012, which started the trend in social media. The rest of the stocks started following several months after that $FB announcement, closer to the end of 2012.

$TWTR ought to see $50 pretty quickly from here, and the sky above only gets thinner in terms of price/volume.

Equities are up, the USD/JPY has broke out, crude is stable, bond prices are imploding and volatility is about ready to flush. Feels like we’re there.

OA

If we close here, this will be the highest closing price for the Russell this year. I’m trying not to overlook the fact that this is still a range, but breadth has made some intense improvements. Still, the higher we go, the more jittery the market might get. Will be considering the use of a hedge pretty soon.

Yesterday, I picked up calls in $OAS and shares of $EXXI. This morning I picked up some $PCLN and $DDD calls, as well as $NADL stock. I’m looking at $BTE from our list yesterday and thinking about buying it up a little here. Those profile charts are getting filled fast.

I’m excited to see the outcome of $TWTR earnings tonight. Anyone got a position going into earnings?

I’m hoping for a couple weeks of ping-pong action in oil. I think we’ve got two good anchors here at $50 and $55.

Last night in After Hours with Option Addict, we did a top down analysis of oil stocks, focusing specifically on locating the stocks with the best structure. Out of more than a dozen names, I am watching OAS, ROSE, BTE and EXXI.

Over the last few years, I’ve spent a lot of time writing about and analyzing stocks as a metric of public participation and sentiment. I don’t think I’ll ever forget the Facebook IPO and the sentiment leading up to it, as well as the sentiment thereafter. It proves the point that stocks and companies that the public can relate to become a direct pulse of how investors are feeling at any given time.

The Twitter IPO really proved that point, and I helped people make a shit load of money off that. I help folks understand the average investors perception prior to the IPO and directly thereafter. Both of these stocks were a vehicle to take advantage of crowd sentiment. In one instance, everyone wanted to be a part of the Facebook IPO and were sold into for months to come, and in the other, everyone feared the Twitter IPO but were forced to participate and chase after it debuted once they realized they were wrong.

After roughly a year and a half had passed on both IPO’s, they reached a critical point in investor psychology. Take a look at the monthly charts.

Facebook at 14 months post IPO:

Twitter at 16 months post IPO:

This was my top idea at the iBC Las Vegas Investor Conference. It will be interesting to see how Twitter reacts to its upcoming earnings announcement.

OA

AAPL holding up at the highs here may provide another spark for the NASDAQ, which has been weighing down the market this morning. While the TF_F was rapidly approaching another 2% gain, the NQ_F  hasn’t wanted to get green. This heavy action stalled the early morning ramp and the probe lower over the last couple hours.

Take a look at AAPL though.

It’s sitting up here, pegged at the highs. It’s also developing some decent balance to work with on the lower time frame.

There might be a trade here in AAPL mid-week. Would love to see it hold $117.50, but I’ve started a small weekly position as a trade here, in case recent AAPL buyers continue to defend lows. I’m still holding calls from several weeks back, but I reduced the size into earnings. A little strength here might help this NQ_F find a buyer as well.

OA

Epic game last night. First time I have found myself rooting for the Patriots.

The bears had another great opportunity to rock the boat this morning and passed. Off the open, I took an NQ_F long at 4092 as well as shares in KEG and ADXS over in 12631. I’m stalking a long in oil here for the day, and possibly calls in CRM.

This should be an interesting week in terms of opportunity. This rejection at the lows might have legs for a couple days.

I’ll update you later today with anymore trades or ideas.

OA