TECHNICAL TAKE: NIKKEI

As mentioned in After Hours with Option Addict, I took a long in the /NKD (Nikkei futures) last night, in anticipation of this move tonight, just under 17000. Here are a couple important levels to be aware of.

The profile is extremely thin under 17000, which is where the fast reversals have all happened.

The profile is extremely thick at 17500, which prices have been unable to get above in the last few weeks.

Tonight’s spike above 17500 creates a likelihood that the upper end of this channel or flag (19000) will be reached in a few short weeks, if prices accept a move back above 17500 tonight.

Been meeting with doctors this morning, so I apologize for getting a late start here.

I was stopped out in $X, and my $XBI calls went splat.

I caught $2 in CL_F overnight, and 15 in the ES_F.

Structure is looking good enough here to get us out of this multi-day range.

What are ya’ll trading today?

I picked up another lot of $AAPL at $95.20 (LT), and $shares of $X for $6.72, for a trade, this morning.

More later,

OA

I picked up shares of $FCX at $3.90 here for a quick trade.

More later,

OA

Keep an eye on biotech here this morning. Quick chart of the $IBB:

This ought to make for a decent spot to take an $IBB, $XBI, or $LABU long.

Disclaimer: I picked up $XBI calls for this week on Friday.

More later,

OA

It’s at these stages of a market move that sentiment dictates price action. Think back to August through September. That was the most amazing stretch of my career in daily market analysis…and it was all based on crowd behavior and sentiment patterns.

Seems this is where sentiment will take over. For the next few weeks, think of ways in which the market will attempt to probe you, and try to avoid said probing.

As an example, the read yesterday I discussed in 12631 was that most of the fear yesterday was not being short coming into today. Not many people walked away bullish yesterday. I closed that second NQ long this morning for +110. That’s nearly 350 points in a week and a half. Long.

This is the quietest gap up I’ve seen, since this one. If we stick to the same principles we did after the last market lashing, we’ll likely be a few steps ahead here.

BTW, I entered another NQ at 4213 off most of the comments that the market couldn’t hold a rally, and the 1880 backtest. I am also long some $XBI weekly calls for next week.