FRESH CANVAS

New week, new template. This isn’t a great look thus far either.

Unfortunately, all the price levels that we’ve discussed in the last two weeks….long above 1880, short near 1940… are no longer applicable today. We’ve gapped away from all these prices and into areas where the market has very little price structure.

Now that the opening hour is in the books, I’ve taken note of the trends off the open in tech names, the carnage in banks, and the relative strength in some materials stocks we’ve been eyeballing ($FCX, $RIO, $BHP, $TCK, etc).

Oil saw another rejection under $30 again this morning, which may be playable for a long here. Bonds have been a gap and go winner since the open, and Gold has rallied all the way to 1200, which is the key volume area over a 5 year time line. For those watching, it still has yet to register overbought on my indicator.

I’ve got nothing on my radar yet, but will update as the day develops. I took an ugly move in $PAH off the open, and am looking for a spot to sell and take the loss.

More later,

OA

Think you’re having a bad day? Could be worse…ask Matrix Capital Management.

You could have 19% of AUM in $NFLX, another 20% in $DATA and $WDAY, 7% in $LGF, and 6% in $NEWR.

RIP

The fork has been inserted into your beloved momentum darlings. According to growth names like $LNKD and $DATA today, if you’re not down 20% or more in a growth stock yet…just wait.

In late December in After Hours with Option Addict, we talked about those names being ripe for a rotation away from, and into beaten down materials stocks. Now each of these stocks has lost it’s momentum trend, as @Dyer440 called in $NFLX months back.

Each of them is now working it’s way towards primary support. $AMZN is by far the ugliest. $GOOGL hasn’t exactly cracked yet, but that weekly candle looks like shit.

Look out below.

Back to the week’s ‘line in the sand.’

Most interesting action today here is the lack of response in bonds. Stocks at session lows, and bonds are at post NFP lows here as well.

Breadth metrics here are much stronger than we should be, yet the market is wholly imploding.

Oil is firm here today, and $GS is fighting to stay green.

I got stopped out of my ES from earlier this week at +20, so I just reloaded here again at 1874.5, with a very tight stop.

For the last week or more, so many equities out of the materials sector are not following the market lower here. They flatten out into market weakness, and scream higher as the market turns up. Look at intraday charts of $X, $FCX, $POT, $CF, etc.

Speaking of which, I took another position in $CF here this morning.

I can’t recall the last time I saw the market pushing lower, and the NYSE $TICK in an uptrend off the open. Something has to give here this morning.

OA

I locked down shares of $PAH at $7.69, because the dips are getting bought in just about all things in the materials space.

Good day,

OA