In light of a lot of weekend analysis I’ve read, I’ve opted to construct an in-depth write up today offering a detailed outline of every last reason of my bias toward the overall market here. Technical, breadth, cycle, sentiment and all time frames.
After Hours with Option Addict participants get to hear this daily, which is why I don’t regurgitate the same discussions here….but I feel its appropriate for those that don’t hear to get an overall write up as to my confidence and steadfastness to the long side of this market and why its working.
This will take me a good part of the day, so if there’s things you’d like to have mentioned in this write up, post them here. I’ll likely pin this to my twitter feed until we reach ATH’s.
OA
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how does mercury’s retrograde fit into your overall theory?
Same way 9/23 does. Like a suppository.
stock rotations – that is something that has helped me get a sense of what is going on in the markets – I never considered them before you discussed them in AHWOA
Market conditioned everyone to buy puts into strength last two weeks.
Uh oh.
and to fade the gap up
Jigga!!
+1
Everyone all bear’ed up. Here comes the pain.
Looking for metals to play catch up to oil here.
Please post it in manifesto-style format, complete with ludicrous Fed ramblings, conspiratorial ‘they’ usage, and randomly bolded all-cap statements.
Sold my NFLX calls from this morning for a quick 250% gain. After last week I want to lock in what I get – may cause me to miss some, gains, but I don’t trust the market still
Bot back UVXY 13.57
You think this action furthers the bearish thesis?
The day is young and the sellers will walk prices up as much as they can. I’m about to pull the trigger on AAPL May 92 puts @ .34.
I think AAPL can go to 95 before pulling back – do not underestimate the power of Buffett – I made bank on AAPL 92 puts last week. leaving them alone this week.
Yeah, seemed obvious the breakdown was a must, and you had to buy it.
With the gap up and ensuing rally, where is everyone? You think a majority of the people in OA’s blog turned bearish last week?
I’m glad I did not capitulate.
1. Which sources of sentiment you use (and/or which you find reliable / non-reliable). Your reply to me about so-called “smart money” sentiment from hedge funds a few weeks ago was very interesting to me and very different from what I read from other sources.
2. How you see international markets shaping up (in particular, the Nikkei, where I think most are missing out on a buying opportunity).
Bullish as F on Japan. They haven’t even summoned the helicopter yet. Caught 650 points in NKD last week.
AS for sentiment stats, several. I quoted AAII a lot, but its an observation of multiple inputs I suppose.
Thanks, OA. Appreciate it.
OA great analysis. You are one of the few bloggers i still actually read. Most have been so screwed by this market they just ramble shit. Keep it up.