In light of the recent market context, these morning probes lower are very interesting. There’s no real substance behind the selling, and no speed. I often refer to it as “smoke screen.” Such criteria were things we watched very carefully during the same market action in September leading into October.
I favor the long here until 1940 is reached.
Still like all things materials here, and am watching $N very carefully today for a quick long.
What’s on your radar?
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Got in some $KMI at the open today as a long term hold. Stalking $GS and some (gulp) Chinese Burritos.
Been a while since I’ve read the blog on a regular basis. I remember you focusing mainly on the RUT as your indicator. What drove the switch to the S&P?
I only use the Russell in a certain context. In about two weeks, you’ll see me talking about it predominantly, and hopefully you’ll see why that is, and when I switch.
Not to spoil or jinx (crossing fingers), is it because in weaker markets, the larger caps tend to be first in a rally?
Yes. At first we talk about $SPX, $NQ, $INDU, etc…then after a week or two start looking for Small Caps to catch up. That catch up move means that risk appetite is getting stronger.
Learning how to fish, as opposed to just eating. Thanks OA for knowledge; it’s much appreciated.
If you read back a few posts, you will see an amazing analogue happening with the S&P with the lows back in Aug./Sept. S&P fitting perfect with the tape.
TWTR has been looking strong lately.
$CNX has a good looking volume profile
looks like denial phase….
Or is it a gay phase?
$COH, $KORS, $UA
Gold short here anyone?
Jesus. Just went parabolic. Guess no short
With a small sale of UWTI and a just now purchase of SCO at 169.80, I am effectively neutral oil. The EIA inventory numbers have confused Algos at the moment. I prefer to watch the resolution from a neutral position.
/NG holding the187 level so far. Next two weeks are cold here in Central Pa. with the exception of this Sat, Sun, Mon. Also, a minnie snowmaggedan is forecast for Tues/Wed with colder temps afterward.
Stock are still good for more squeezies…..
We are on same page with another stock squeeze higher. It’s setting up now. SPY cup and handle. Let’s roll
I keep staring at natty and waiting for a move. I’m justifying my losses with how nice it’s been (relatively!) here in Western NY this year. Easily worth being down 60% in $UGAZ.
Crystal clear cup and handle on SPY gents. Handle being built today with sideways action. Prepare for liftoff
i like ANF for earnings play. Huge pop last quarterly earnings, and has done nothing but base pretty much. Good volume pocket potential to 30-32ish
Purchased 195 strike SPY calls for next week (72 contracts)
$KMI, looking at $X for another possible entry. $TWTR burn has healed nicely now so maybe looking to put my hand in the pain hole again.
Very slow
Bullish action today as handle gets built…looking mighty pretty
SPY getting ready to launch higher
well, now that everyone thinks that…
No..just me
Why are you so chatty?
Just letting ppl know about the c&h developing on the SPY 30min. Can you say textbook setup?
Yeah, I think we get it. Thanks.
Here we go!! Up up and away
Rather the market suck in some bears for today
It already did. Bears all think top is in
Looks like LC is climbing into a volume pocket. I own shares from 7.50 for the long term. Any way to play with options?
Pls rope in more bears with this end of the day move
Think it’s just a grind day for SPX after these last 3 days. All I want to see today to keep my outlook on the bullish side is today’s doji stay in the top half of yesterday’s candle.
So going with the Sept/Oct analog I assume this is just like 10/6? A gap up the day before then a small backtest on lighter volume? I guess we find out tomorrow.
Looks pretty similar.The slow speed and lack of sell extremes are a nice tell to that analysis.
Bullish sentiment increased to 27.56% from 19.24% a week earlier, while bearish sentiment fell to 37.80% from 48.70%.
thats NOT how bottoms are made…
They are made on 17% bullish votes though, which happened 3 weeks ago.
OA,
You ever track the activity in SPY on Stocktwits? Seems like the majority are super confident that we are going lower tomorrow. This would seem to feed in well into the pain trade ala Oct 22, 2014 and Oct 6, 2015 where we got just a 1 day pullback off the bottom
Yep, that’s all I use StockTwits for.
Good to know. I just started looking at it to track the herd. Thx
Only problem with that approach is the herd you are observing is a very small sample. How many of those posting comments trade more than a couple hundred shares or have a clue about the market? Not many.
$NKE
I am wrong on my /NG and short /GC & miners recent trades. Luckily I’ve been MOAR right on the stock squeeze.
I believe /NG is a timing issue. This today I will begin trading in/out of DGAZ until I can determine if Algos wanna test or violate the previous low.
A bit more clouded on the timing of gold miners short. I bot /GC & extra GDX to offset the losses. May abandon the idea of a 10 – 15% pullback in the miners.
Huge volume pocket below support on RH..
Still seeing the basic denial pattern playing out. Long spy / short gold miners until we break 1890 down or hit 1940 up.
Bought this weeks NFLX 92 calls near the open – grinding out until we break one way or the other.
Oil for the win?
KMI looking about to break out of a wedge, may be a good yolo for some weekly 17/17.5s if you have high risk tolerence.