Several weeks ago, I was asked to pick out a chart that looked like ass. Something that would plummet should the market head lower. My pick was Wayfair $W.
Not long after, the stock shit the bed to the tune of about -36%. On this recent rally, I think it looks good for another quick attack on the short side, should the market start to roll over.
The retest of a range break like this is always a great spot to initiate.
Played it on that first shitting and looking to get back in. What puts would you recommend?
Probably March 40’s.
Looked at puts last week, spreads were brutal and volume light so passed
API showing 3 mil draw, Cushing draw, distillates draw, gasoline up.
If you are overweight SCO, DWTI, etc begin to sell into bounces.
$33.80 would be a 30% move from the low and penetrate the front month 50D moving average. That is my target with a potential parabolic move to $39.00.
I am long 1/2 position and looking to go full 1%.
Well now, see my comment in the last thread about blowing through 31.50. April contract trading at 33.69, about a % above its 50d.
Gap and go a reality. This will likely cause other risk assets to stay flat or pullback.
What if we break 2000?
My guess (based on Tony’s Weekend Update) would be revisiting this initial rally as P5 … here’s what he said;
“Normally uptrends during bear markets last from two to four weeks, and retrace from 50% to 61.8% of the preceding downtrend. This would project a rally to between SPX 1963 and SPX 1999 within the next month. Since Int. iv topped at SPX 1947, and Int. i bottomed at SPX 1993 this would create another potential range. Within both of these ranges there are the 1956 and 1973 pivots. With this market having a fondness for the pivots we should start looking for an uptrend high once the 1956 pivot range has been reached.”
So you can see that his highest expectation is 1999 yet he believes the pivots are key thus cautioning to look for 1956/1973 pivots as uptrend highs.
Today he’s noted that we’ve gapped over pivot points the last few days for a brisk move up to 1929 where he’s now expecting a pullback to 1880’s …
“The market has now had gap up openings over three consecutive pivots: 1841, 1869 and 1901. The SPX then rallied to the 1929 pivot in the afternoon and ended the day below it. This has been quite an interesting three trading days, since the SPX 1810 low late last Thursday. We continue to count five Minor waves up from that low: 1836-1822-1888-1875-1931. At today’s high short term momentum was displaying a very slight negative divergence, and the daily RSI has just hit overbought. This suggests a more substantial pullback, possibly back to the SPX 1880’s, could be next. Short term support is at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots.”
My guess is after this anticipated consolidation (1880’s) he’d be looking for a final rally to 1973 pivot (but no higher than 1990ish) to end Major B and for the decline to reassert itself to new lows in Major C.
SUNE going to zero….sellers leaning on it hard this morning. It appears there will be more casualties before it’s all said and done. The good news is that these blowups are no longer moving the market.
Appears my portfolio is correcting my prior comment. All my risk assets levitating w/this morning’s oil move.
A move as high as 35.72 on the table today based on OVX. I have an offer of UWTI at 2.11 from my 1.41 entry if you are interested.
I expect the momentum of this move to slow down …… towards Monday’s close. MOAR put premium needs destroyed.
Above statement can be negated by such over the weekend headlines of the Japanese Tsunami, European bank failure, or Middled East WW2 variety.
You wouldn’t short oil here with $31.50 looking like resistance for Light Crude?
No. That answer would have been before inventory. See next comments below.
This looks like a good spot for KMI if you are bullish and want a re-entry. Taking out the faded spike from this morning, there is a two-day consolidation taking place…maybe wait to enter this afternoon if it stays coiled…
OA,
Thought there was a live webinar today for day trading?
There is. I’m long NQ and short GC.
Where? I get told it’s not happening until AHWOA.
There is a link posted in the chat. A new link
RH short working with more room to fall.
This does not work.
RECORDING AND LINK FOR TOMORROW
Wed Feb 17, 2016 5:42pm
As discussed in our day trading session last week, here is the link and password to login and trade with me tomorrow.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8486435735040701442 Password: sentiment
Go look in the char on the OA page – there is an updated link
On the AHWOA page? What’s chat?
You’ve never used the chat in AHWOA? The big button/link that says “chat?”
I am letting this trade out today (oil). Shows me that API is full of shit. Obviously they have a biased towards upside.
Only good thing about the report is Lower 48 production decreased.
I’ll try to exit some UWTI at 1.71. If not, I’ll stay 1/2 position long oil.