A few failed rallies, and a failed gap up. In this context, this move here you are seeing today usually gets bought.
I picked up $DIS calls and am moving into $V right now.
More later,
OA
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Unfortunately, oil and copper are telling a very different story. He trend has changed and the,script has flipped on the failed rally/gap higher dip buyers. Something is very broken under the surface. 99.9% certain this morning’s highs are the top. Acted accordingly with a stop just above.
Wow. Nothing is 99.9% certain.
Death and taxes
hope so, OA. Godspeed
I agree I think this gets bought but if it doesn’t there will be blood.
There will be blood…lots of it.
Let’s see if monster bidder in Crude futures can stabilize things…
I didn’t think we would see a 2 in front of the price of oil – still haven’t yet, but geez
I didn’t see the negativity the last two days that I’m seeing today, I like your buys.
It was the morning negativity that interested me the most, and how quiet it was (no buys) at the lows yesterday.
so today’s rally fade felt different to you?
No, it felt the same as each and every low/bottom the market puts in. Same behavior patterns.
ok. thanks
In certain parts of my day job, how something feels is a completely acceptable metric. Not joking, When you are at 40,000+ career hours at a task, these are valid.
What do you mean? The sentiment is valid? Are we saying the same thing?
Yes, the same thing. I clicked post at the wrong instant after editing. I meant to say it is valid to make calls based on feeling and sentiment in parts of my day job, and it must be so in trading as well.
The combination of experience and the gift of a talent is quite powerful. If someone is blessed with it, the challenge is arranging their life to make a living and be happy doing it.
So yes, keep making those intuitive calls.
Added to SUNE 2.77 –
GPRO long 14.71….loving the solars down here but over committed in SUNE. SCTY and SEDG look best.
Do you have a trading target for SUNE or is this a long term investment? TIA
Looking for low single digits in SUNE
wtf — low DOUBLE digits in SUNE.
haha. yeah right!
i think this goes up to $5 at best before the shorts come back
Upped my offer on SCO to 197.1. One day I’ll tell my children how I sold my very last of it at 225.
Added to TBT at 41.88
Oil below 30Bbl = RECESSION
See you all on the other side…
+1
Markets set up for crash here imo
gay
Just my two cents…
No need to break the price of crude any lower. Mission accomplished – sub $2 gasoline has reignited consumer spending.
Anecdotal evidence:
1) Our bar business has been solid ever since September and experienced the best winter in three years.
2) I live in the snow belt of Upstate NY and we have not had to shovel once this season. Last year, work did not begin until after May 15th in many areas. This year contractors have not stopped working and their backlog of projects is the best since 2007.
3) Commercial lending – Congress passed bonus depreciation for the next four years and will significantly impact capital spending thru 2019.
My gameplan since Nov has been to do my best to avoid land mines until earnings season which has finally begun. Mild winter will result in favorable comps when compared to Q1/14 and Q1/15 when economic activity slowed to a crawl so my sense is that earnings beats will be rewarded handsomely and outlooks will be much more favorable than current estimates.
CHOMP! My offer of 197.1 taken as oil went under 30. My last bit will not be let go until 25/barrel.
That’s not a target or prediction. It’s just a small amount left. I will be buying dips in SCO.
No chest pounding as I am down 2.25%. Biggest daily drawdown since I restarted trading in 2011.
I had sidestepped most landmines until today. Not enuff tza, dgaz, dust, and sco on the books going into today.
the bottoms in
Exceeding SPX 1947 will confirm 5 waves up and impulsive rather than corrective action … almost time to get “all in.”
Thanks
OA, would you be so kind as to you review the XBI chart in AH tonight? Or IBB if you wish. I won’t be able to attend form the office but will watch the video.
Would love to.
Thanks. My own take on XBI, 60% yesterday was the tradeable bottom but could see it as low as 53. Immediate upside 62.
anyone dare to hold longs overnight?
You have to. I’m surprised you haven’t picked any of this up by now.
yeah he said he’s been trading 15 years?
Commenting for 15 years. Fluffing for two of them.
lol…he does like to give out a good fluffing.
lol! good one.
MS overnight, no problem. Want 29 and change for a 2 day pop. Today was day one.
I am ….. hold your breathe …. a full position long oil. 1%. Oil 2% off low of day. Gundlach calling for temp bottom, OVX at 65.
Can’t ask for a much better trade. Seeking an 18 – 30% move up.
Would be reshorting on a break of 29.93
The time-frame for this trade is the second or third week of Feb.
I wish I could block you
Are you short oil or do my posts annoy you?
you are annoying
I’d mostly blame the multiple posts more than the content. Write all your trades on twitter and give us a link or something.
ahaa: TY for the feedback.
That is just one person’s opinion. Personally I greatly appreciate your insight and transparency. Awesome job trading!
HOG PII and WGO long term bets on rebound in discretionary spending.
HES is begging to be bought at a 10 year low. They have piles of cash from $110 Bbl oil and the sale of their mid-stream businesses.
Also, John Hess wants to buy back into a majority position in the company. Maybe he takes it private like Dell.
Aren’t they all exploration now predominately in the Bakken?
where’s Torhund?
TurdLand has left the building
NYMO pegged -78 today and nothing except for the IWM took out lows which did get bought. I took the Fly approach and bought SPXL and LABU
OA – Can you please give your opinion on Under Armour? The chart looks broken but the company is solid. Would you back the truck up around here or wait for a better “sale” ? Thank you
My LABU buys yesterday around 10.90 are doing ok which isnt to say that I am green on that.
Obummer is speaking tonight and markets don’t rally on Obummer speak.They never do.Bull trap at the close.
small selling going on in after hours. lets see if bulls can reverse that overnight.
Average volume on FCX is 41 million shares. Today it traded 141 million shares and came back over 10%. A tradeable bottom may be in.
Doubled down on my position by picking up another 100 shares for retirement account. I know, big spender!
With the way the market has been for the past 2 weeks you either keep it small, stay super nimble, or get a grenade to the nuts. Ive taken a few recently. Good luck with the trade.
API reporting a draw in overall inventory with rather large increases in gas and distillates.
For my oil long trade to be successful, it’ll need to be a squeeze that makes no sense fundamentally.
futures already off almost 10 points in the /ES. rest up tonight bulls
Yes, and back up those 10, and raise them 5. Are we entering a bear? Who knows. All I know is, faces will be ripped many times over either way.
$STMP
This action got a lot of folks off sides. I’m all the way long stocks right now.
Will abandon my short Natgas with a daily close above /NG 2.32.
Only a 1/2% pullback in oil off the premarket high. Positive for longs.
Was looking for longs and found a few potential shorts instead, for those who may be shopping. $HRL, $HA, and $PSA. All look to have room for a decent sized leg down into weakness.
sold last 1/2 NQ 4331 +120.
TBH this rally doesn’t look good at all to me, my biggest position right now is the euro.
Agree. No time to impress one’s friends with big bets. Doesn’t seem to be much Fear of Missing Out.
Yup. And the Russell getting absolutely crushed relative to the other indices
LOL. Down 2 points.
Down .67% vs ‘.13% on the s&p
Smart man to get out. Only dumb money buying.
SUNE halted a few times already. I have an order to buy at $2.
Bought FCX 3.94
LOL that was fast! Up 1% at open to down .12% at 10:25.
Won’t bore u w/details. Nothing positive in oil report. Buying back SCO that was sold. Luckily my first buy is 192.00. Scaling in …
now i’m discouraged, lol. prob about buy time then. low 20’s es.
Don’t buy. Bear market. Sell every rally
Or just short sune to 0 or buy labd. Yikes
It’s simple folks. Short the bounces. Awesome action today thus far.
Right on cue. Here comes the plunge. Guess you didn’t have to hold longs overnight
If you can’t read a basic SPX chart, you should not be in trading. The bounce was bearish.
Picked up a couple TSLA 210 calls
LOL
To good to be true. Bull shredder upon us.. Once you realize it’s a bear market now, not that difficult to trade around it
You sound like you got your clock cleaned by going no long in a crashing market is not real wise.
Every high is getting sold. I wonder if it’s big boys unloading?
News flash. Big boys have been distributing for a couple of months. Markets headed much lower than most people expecting to see.
No love low 20’s ES. Iwm at 2bot here with ES 2014. See if they bounce them. Ugly so far.