Look at it this way, with every soft market sell you get a face ripper rally. It’s not like you are getting a fast market sell after weak rallies.
What does this tell you about where the pressure lies?
Price action is all just a reflection of emotion and behavior. I don’t use prior analogues to get right on world issues, policy or market head/tail winds. I look for points in the game where the score was similar in terms of fear, greed and positioning. Where the crowd slowly moved out of stocks the year prior, where mood was already bad and rapidly getting worse, and all at once decided they wanted to get back in.
Update:
jesus. that chart is unreal. i’ll be regretting selling my SPY calls this morning
PYPL just got real quiet. Looking for it to finally definitively break over 35
My target 38.65
I had a target of 36 – 36.4, but my calls expire tomorrow….and it just broke that tight range….to the downside
Ah, sorry, I have Nov 35s
No worries, they are green, just how green they will end up is the question
“The Securities and Exchange Commission released a rulemaking agenda placing the equity crowdfunding rules on their October 2015 agenda,” Almerico says. “Even after they are finally released, it takes 60 days to published them in the federal register before they become law. Looks like the earliest we will have JOBS Act equity crowdfunding will be in 2016.”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kevinharrington/2015/02/03/will-jobs-act-equity-crowdfunding-ever-happen/
What do you think of crowdfunding as the potential catalyst for the final risk enthusiasm and oversaturation of business opportunities and over allocation of capital into “risk” that eventually coincides with the final top?
The top will be in 2017. If crowd funding is what gets the public interested, that’s fine with me.
Amazing chart.
Works out almost to the day.
The three day drop, then start counting. It’s pretty spot on.
So awesome.
Bonds and oil are not buying it. I am up on my additional add to my short. I am long Wynn & KMI. KMI was hedged with puts into earnings. Wynn was added after was earnings.
And I am long IWM
MCD is leading this market , who would have thought lol.
OA’s clairvoyance is scaring the children.
bet he weighs the same as a duck
or a small pebble
He turned me into a newt….I got better.
Witchcraft. Clearly the best entry point has past. Are you advocating taking new positions now in anticipation of a face-ripper? If not, when?
Just picking ripe fruit along the way.
You looking to get back into bio at some point or are you over that at this point?
Why Bio?
as a catch-up trade? hasn’t really followed in the rally of over all market. Just figured it would need to catch up if we do get a sustained ripper?
Any concern that HYG isn’t participating today?
$HYG and $SPY don’t have to be equally enthusiastic every day.
tngo about to lift off ?
Was just browsing software stocks. They still look pretty good here.
OA – any thoughts on healthcare stocks now, i.e. the XLV? Biotech, insurers, hospitals all under a lot of pressure…
Insurers look like shit. I like CNCR.
heard about that new etf recently. interesting
Love it, OA. Happy to see the setups materialize, along with cheapening premium. Looking like I’m gonna be spending some time in the lab this weekend…