Yes, this chart right here illustrates the ongoing monthly conversation we have here. Easy to look at that chart and think… “Man, these internet trolls are right. I’ve been on the wrong damned side of this trend for the last several years. Why do I continue to fight this move that wants to go lower. Why don’t I listen to these anonymous experts that are so kind as to freely share and express their superior opinions on this matter?”
We’ve got an important week setting up, which will either confirm that volatility is here to stay, or whether the market releases last years pent up fear and anxiety. Recent headlines have me uneasy about the outcomes, but the charts still suggest this isn’t broken yet.
A “shout-out” to The PPT for signaling this move today. I’m still following this conviction day pattern in the Russell, which when tested, provides direction and clarity. Since October, conviction in the Russell, when tested, provides more conviction. When this pattern gives way, we’ll re-evaluate.
Wear a helmet next week. Bodies will be falling from buildings.
OA
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OA AND FLY ARE GOD
I don’t know bra. This market is giving me the heeby geebies.
Yes, the heeby geebies have been here since 2008. It’s apparent that they won’t go away.
With all due respect the Bears were fighting the fed that whole time and yeah they were stupid to do so. It’s a different market without federal reserve cocaine.
Prices are actually higher from then. Most argued we’d be lower on that announcement, yet it propelled us to another new all time high.
You’re certainly right about prices being higher, so far. I just feel like you can only throw a rock so high before it must propel back to Earth. I’m not even saying its going to be a full on bear, just a decent correction at least. Either way I’m ready to adjust to changes in environment. Good looking out OA.
I am sad for the benign file names for the charts – I guess you have set the bar too high
As always, thanks for the guidance in the market
I’ll get back to work on that. I am slipping this week.
When i look at that chart i think F&*k me we’ve come along way. Air is thin up here.
On the other hand it looks like a nice diagonal line thats going to eternity.
You haven’t been on the wrong side of the trend for the past few years…just the past few months as you keep getting long high beta “growth” as the market is in an ending diagonal pattern near 2000 highs sporting a massive divergence at a time when froth is extremely high.
Sure, you’ll get some bounces here and there, but the market is headed lower. DEFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENTS ARE NOT GOOD FOR STOCKS. Oil crashing, interest rates plummeting, yada yada yada.
Let’s do lunch some day. On me.
Get your own blog.
Let me cook you lunch. I have a good sandwich recipe I call the “Cleveland Steamer.”
That’s nasty, Jeff. Maybe I can show you how the “David Copperfield” works on your wife afterward..hehehe
Would be hard for a guy with a prosthetic penis, but good luck.
LOL…touche’!
Listen here you craven fuck. Leave Jeff’s wife out of your inane ramblings. It passes the line of insult and disrespect that your usual drivel toes. I won’t have it.
GOOGL needs to take the lid off.
Thar she blows!
Too bad most following here don’t play the SPY. So that chart is meaningless to this group most likely. Stocks mentioned most here are best yearly lows. Twtr, yelp, gpro, etc etc…even baba is down big
Yeah, dude…didn’t you click “submit” on some of those stocks? Sucks dude.
yup. stuck in baba, twtr and gpro. sux but miners and some puts (gotta give credit to JPMorgain on these) saved my ass. can’t always be right i guess
haha this dolt is stuck in $GPRO …i’ll buy your shares at $23
i’m sure theres many victims here
Exhibit #1 GOGO
http://scharts.co/1IQUP9a
Dat iz a vury purty chairt mayn.
Thanks Jeff. It’s a very basic chart even conditioned dip buyers should be able to understand 🙂
bulls should be LOVING it even more now. maybe they can add here and lower cost basis ???? :/
sometimes you have to just buck up and go to work
Are stocks gonna go to infinity or zero?
Those are the only two options at present, says everyone.
OA,
How do GOGO look to you at this point? Still holding May calls in this.
Given that Bchu has a chubby over the idea of this going lower, I could play the lower end of this range.
When you emailed, you said you wanted to risk the premium, yes? Or do you have a stop on this?
correct, however if it completely broke down I wouldnt be opposed to salvaging 50% of the premium
Good plan. Remember that in this environment, stocks will fake a move to make a move. Give your exit plan a little wiggle room.
ughh…sure. i think i have some head room before my huge gain turns into a large. good luck
?
huge gains as in profit. it’s been a while? Went in on puts as per JPMorgain. been sweet.
I’m not playing long until we eclipse last week’s swing high on the RUT that was put in on the 8th and 9th. Until then, all we have is lower highs, lower lows. Why is that thinking wrong?
New highs are quick to fade.
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/files/2015/01/clipimg59.jpg
If you are a bull, you have to get bloody. No “coast is clear mentality”, IMO.
JDST anyone?
yuuup.
1280 was my Gold short reference point. First attempt rejected.
BTW, it’s very clear that Winston still reads these blog comments.
1221 and 1250 were also your reference points. 3rd times a charm!
Finally exited the remaining half of my $JNUG trade. woo hoo!
Bought some SCTY 50 calls for next week and GLD puts
Impressive move here in oil to Fridays close. Have 20% of my original short back on. Will take it off close is above last Fridays close
OA
what are your thoughts on $LVS
I invested in BYD.
Thank you. FDX was a good pick from you, at the start of the week
Besides playing individual airlines to the down side, what’s a better way to play them. Transport etfs that I’ve seen really don’t have much exposure to airlines as say rail and truck.
$XAL have options?
No, and I guess no more airline etf’s.
I will be going to the casino tonight to play poker and blackjack like a decent person.
+1
” We’ve got an important week setting up tomorrow..”
Dear OA: do you mean next Tuesday?
Tomorrow sounds like next trading day.
I have important plans this Saturday.
Just kidding, thanks for correcting me on that.
HAL and MS earnings Tuesday morning yall. Gonna be a bloodbath.
Market providing a nice opportunity for “non-believers” today to get short before the big drop. Can you say “BACKTEST” today? Of course, conditioned dip buyers think the bottom is in.
Colts over Patriots for the win!
We have not had enough fear and panic yet. Prepared to be very afraid in the not so distant future. ECB QE will be a ginourmous sell the news event.
Did you see that NY Post tweet? Maybe Fed workers will be busy this weekend.
Yes I saw that, And they will be working hard. It would have been better for them if the market traded down hard today. As it is they have no cover. If they announce somehting in front of ECB then kattie bar the door. I cover and get long.
FXCM bailed out. That stock may actually be a screaming buy.
Do Atlantic City casinos take Swiss francs?
MAJOR BREAKDOWN in the $BKS. Think oil was rough on the markets? Wait until banks crater. Tic Toc 🙂
Check your chart.
Meant to type “$BKX”
Look at the weekly and you will see the long term uptrend line from 2012 has been broken.
Don’t you have to take out a low to break a range?
I think a break of the long term trendily is about as bearish as it gets. Banking sector down 10% for two week period. The BKX trendily was broke when it dropped below that $68.90 level on the weekly.
now things get interesting. The markets giving everyone a chance. Build your lists long or short?
Are you 100% in terms of conviction?
Yes, this doesn’t change anything for me. I do like AG stocks long though. I feel like the group is ready to move soon but I said that about the home builders and that didn’t go so well!
The monthly charts are still constructive, and these prices make more sense for a longer term thesis.
Today’s sucker rally = backtest of SPY breakdown. Easy Peazy JAPANEAZY.
why short miners? just short gold.
yolo on GOOGL 510’s for 22 cents!
wow. could this be the formation of the inverted middle-finger?
AAII today :
48% bulls
16% bears
Bulls need a much healthier dose of carnage soon to get that number down. They are still “dip buyers”! 🙂
@matt. GOOGL trade looks like a winner. Nice job
yeah booked for .60 cents. way early as it went to .90, but i’ll take the triple.
Bullard on the loose! that said, booked GILD and NFLX. Rolled into TWTR YELP BIDU calls.
haha. those last 3 tickers…just laughable
Since you have now put yourself in an authoritative position, please…please…please post an original thought or trade idea. Keep in mind that I will fucking nail you to a cross the first time you slip. And since you suck superior dick at this, criticizing everyone else’s investment stance when you have the shame shit in your own portfolio, I beg you to post one original idea here at least per week. Got the balls to do it? We’ll still let you give handjobs to the trolls, but please list some trades. It would be fun to see what you are capable of on your own, oh wise one.
+10
ummm…haven’t i been touting long miners for some time? as in last 3 weeks? And whjat you mean nail me to the cross? Please do. I FUCKING dare you. since all you do once you get pissed and is curse and make momma jokes, lets have it. haha
I put you on that idea, don’t forget.
Bought beCause i Hate U
Oh…and happy mlk weekend. Have a good one!!
I thought this article explains where all this volatility is coming from pretty well if anyone is interested. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-stocks-investors-mull-correction-001840967.html
OA, not sure I have the balls to stay short into the ECB. The one thing I’m going to be watching like a hawk though is the dollar. If the ECB exceeds expectations and we see people like into the dollar I’m getting long tech, risky stocks, etc. I would also pile on shorts of energy stocks, financials, brokers, etc. On a rising dollar we would see total capitulation in crude under $40 IMO.
I opened shorts in MS and HAL on Friday and covered a lot of other positions. Next week gonna be crazy.
Go Packers!
I would love to know if anyone has charted, or knows of a chart of the Fear & Greed Index over time. I’d love to see if certain levels trigger either upside or downside. I know OA has talked about a Fear & Greed Index below like 9 as being pretty bullish. We’re sitting at 30 currently.
Not sure you can use it to call tops/bottoms. It was sitting at 0 or 1 for over a week back in October.
There’s a chart floating around out there that shows how it flags bottoms…but I didn’t pay attention to the tops.
Thx for the insight, OA. This is one crazy market.
Goddamn. Gold won’t stop
Aren’t you long? meaning it’s good right?
Huge divergence between the Russell DIA SPY and Q’s. Not buying this futures ramp unless the IWM can catch up
Well played
what happens after a big gap up/down is always a great tell for overall health and future direction.
@chiefton… Have you had a look at $AVD? I know you were stalking ag of late and that one looked kind of interesting. A little thinner than I like (200k per day, not quite $300mm market cap)
that’s a nice find TJ but not quite ready yet for me. I like POT (which I own) and MON MOS.
I also like the look of $MOS.
Looking into CTRP puts, LOCO stock and FEYE calls.
bot AAPL weekly 109 calls @.85
OA – What do you think of the location of CAT? Noticed over the weekend that the oscillator gave it an official oversold…
The long term chart (monthly) makes this spot look pretty good.
This market would’ve already flushed if not did the hope of ECB cocaine. Fundamentals are shit.
I am playing the range until tomorrow then going cash and watching the show. Pretty sure there will be opportunities either way this goes down after the news
So moving forward, how would you play it?
If you are asking me, I just spent 15 minutes trying to think about how to play it going forward and I honestly don’t know. I don’t think there is going to be a huge reaction after Thursday, but I do think it will let the markets move more freely and hopefully drive down some of volatility we have been seeing.
@chiefton – per my earlier post, I sold the remaining half of my $jnug on Friday. OA called 1280 a resistance and I somewhat believed. Can’t always win
HAHA, pin that on me.