Regardless of directional bias, we should see no less than a 10% market move from these prices here. Not to mention, everything is still very coiled up for a big move later this week.
I’d take a moment to make some adjustments to free up some capital, and then start building your lists in terms of bullish, bearish, or breakout plays. If you’d prefer not to get lost in the stock selection process, simply start with a TNA/TZA position and build others after. Even if you have to chase a little, the next move out of the market will last weeks, if not months from here.
I don’t see myself anticipating too many movements in advance of ECB, but we did build out a pretty solid watchlist on Friday afternoon. To add anything else to that list, I’ll have to sit back and observe what the markets appetite for risk is this week, and which stocks respond the most to this weeks news flow.
Would love to hear what’s on your radar this week, post at will.
OA
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Been building a short EUR/USD position for few weeks, looking to continue to add after ECB decision, barring some unforseen policy I haven’t considered. Honestly – my only conviction trade, even my short yen position is losing its allure, maybe japan rolls back over and dies.
Still holding FCAU and GOOGL. Bought PCLN on Friday and amd looking at AFL. All boring stuff but it’s been holding up ok
Euro short is getting way too crowded. Watch it rip if the ECB is in-line or worse with expectations.
Yep.
what day is the ECB announcement? Thursday?
Yes, Thurs
thx
I have had success trading RDWR since Nov.Earnings next week.Presently in Mar 23’s.Pullback to 22 and hold there might provide good entry.I know it’s not an OA stock setup but in this shit market stocks with good RS might work.Or not.
ba ba ba baba ran
“ALL IN” on the FAZ 50 ema backtest this morning. GS is your seeing eye dog for financials and it’s about to break the all important $175 level. This market is ’bout to fall off a cliff, kids.
whats the obvious reaction to the ECB? Market drop, Dollar rise, Precious Metal rise??
I’d be very careful on the long side. Even though the ECB QE will come through and set things up higher, the Greece election could pull the rug out. There will be lots of wailing and gnashing of teeth over a Grexit.
The reward far outweighs the risk here if bullish on the markets. Let financials be your guide. Down almost 12% this month so far on big volume. Smart money exiting. Another financial crisis on deck? We’ll see.
No concerns over the big gaps higher in $DB, $RBS, $BCS, $UBS?
re the big gaps – RBS, DB these stocks have gone no where since 11/2008. They had strong gaps this morning, but so what? within the bigger, more important (to me) picture, these are still very much dead money until proven otherwise.
You don’t find it interesting that they make that move this week? That’s all I asked.
Jeff,
I don’t care about all of those…GS is the seeing eye dog. Also, $BKX has broken its long term uptrend line (pointed out last week).
$BKX is in a range. Zoom out.
I’m just advising to wait until the market reaction after the Greek election before getting long. You have no idea what “smart” money is doing.
URI is very interesting at this level esp. as it is a market tell IMHO.
Still holding short healthy helping of GOGO as it continues GOGOing down 🙂
Thinking about playing any move out of balance/range here as a Fed day. First move may be the wrong one.
Most people are waiting for a break of the range before getting in, the problem is when it breaks one way or the other it will too fast for most people to play it. As difficult as it is you have place your bets before hand or stay in cash. This is one of the most anticipated moves in a long time and don;t forgot one that most think is inevitable.
Why bother trying to game it? Just focus on value. If you find something cheap just buy it and leave room to add. I continue to avoid high growth stuff because its not working and because it went on huge runs for a couple of years and is due for significant consolidation.
Granted I understand the reason for trying to game it…
This market will be a one way train when it decides to move and everything will move in the same direction for a while. If you have a long term time frame I understand your strategy.
@gasman, hope your trading is going well. Did you ever find a release date for DHT? Nasdaq and Zacks lists it as 1/28. Another site has it listed at 1/22. thx, trying to decide if I want to hold NNA.
I haven’t found anything definitive. Nothing posted on the company website yet, which is strange
Raising cash. As of lunch, the only things i’m holding are long term at this point and a growing $TZA position (oh, and a decrepit last piece of $UGAZ that is out-of-money-option-premium sized and i will take down with the ship).
BABA leap calls. 140’s baby.
see you at 150.
critical spot for oil, if it loses this level it’s going to test the lows. Needs to close above 47.30
Picked up some AFL today under $57.8. Very cheap insurer on multiple metrics. Has gotten hit due to perception of exposure to falling Yen when in reality the drop impacts them far less than market expectations: e.g the Yen dropped 7% last quarter and their Japanese business income only dropped 1% in that time frame. Also pays a healthy 2.7% dividend which has risen 10% per year since 2007 (and 14% per year for past 10 years). Trades near low end of range of p/e’s for past 10 years.
Bullard is such an Imbecil. One week we need more QE, the next we need rate hikes. What a bozo.
TWTR, FB and FEYE trying here. anyone thinking risk on?
This week should be the tell.
i have march calls in TWTR and FEYE.
gold/miner short looks good here
ughh…. ok. i already regret selling my $jnug friday
don’t stand in front of a runaway train
Any thoughts on $VA here?
OA, didn’t we talk about shorting biotech after IBB breaks to new highs? Today is that day…
Someone asked about betting against. I mentioned a failed breakout might be the best play.
thanks for the clarification. IBB looks strong, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it pivot tomorrow given the week’s events.
$$$$$$$$
GOGO ’bout to break down through another support. $14.00. GOGOing down, kids 🙂
$ARWR looking to go here
Bot QQQ Feb 100 Puts
Bear?
yes — mutual fund account in cash, stalking bearish setups but playing indicies for now
Puts on GLD. Calls on YELP BIDU
what about $CRTO
$CRTO breaks out the day after my options expire.
2015 is going as planned. Oil taking it on the chin.
Rotation into miners is now confirmed, my EXK trade +13% and counting.
Awaiting the dip to take another monster trade.
God Bless America. We are all degenerate gamblers.
After seeing this post I sold my EXK +13.5%. Not going to be greedy.
indeed. NFLX 400 calls. fuck it.
Killing it Matt, NICE!
thank you. i’ll be smoking and drinking the finest this evening.
always nice to see someone hit on an earnings play….congrats.
Well good for you matt bear! Nice to see that hit for you.
No kidding.
when you find a trade that everyone says should go down but it keeps going up you’ve got a real winner…TLT
love the TLT.
I stayed away. Won’t the volatility crush from the 140% IV kill profits on the NFLX calls?? What kind of a percentage move price need to gap tomorrow in order to not lose on that position. Just curious.
OA, since oil/energy issue keeps going near future, will you ride down FSLR ? or sell and pick up later ? Thanks.
Not very far.
FCAU is by far my biggest position
20day by 5min chart
Tight long entry on FCX may present tomorrow AM.
HFC, WNR, XLE and others could bounce here too.
Pretty amazing how steady and strong this Goods really has been. Haven’t seen anything like it in years. 1300 in rear view.
NFLX 412 is premarket. i should have 600-700%’er at the open.
Hey OA – UWTI here?? really want to be in oil at these levels. Better idea?
OA – this chart came from the comments on the Fly’s post. It’s a chart of the Gold-Oil ratio. It’s currently at an extreme. Very interesting…. http://i.imgur.com/1qIJB2x.png
@UB- people here always looking for a reason to sell gold. Don’t get run over
Nobody has been short Gold since October dude. Let it go.
picked up a few WYNN 142 calls this am
and closed my 109 AAPL Calls @ 1.45 for a small gain
if that’s the reaction then watch out below.
extremely important highs and lows printed in the NQ…top to bottom of channel in one candle. Which gets taken out first today will be significant in my book.
GOGO continue GOGOing down…the gist that keeps giving despite market direction. If you folks identify weak stocks that have broken down out of patterns, you need not fret about market direction. Biggest “tell” on these weak growth stocks were in December when markets ramped higher now and then and these failed to get any bids. Best setups out there!
Stay short. Easy $$$$$$$$$$
Dude, can you please pick a stock that moves more than .15-.20 a day if you are going to write about your easy $$$$$$ every day. What are you up 8% on this thing? Just like SOCL back in December where it would fall .12 and we would have to hear about your giant victory. You must trade with a 4 figure portfolio.
Idiot…I’ve been short from $15.37/$15.33
Huge win in the Feb puts and short common.
15,300 shares short from over $15 🙂
Great work. Let us know when you cover.
You dolt, hubris is quite unbecoming.
Sold QQQ Puts — Bot TWTR Feb 40 calls.
the OA usual suspects are all taking off.
TWTR, YELP, FEYE, BABA, AMZN, FSLR.
Taking off? Errrr, ok.
AMZN and BABA are up over 3% today. FEYE is up 3%. FSLR is up over 4% today. is up 2.5% today.
i try to keep things in perspective. I have no problem giving OA a hard time on bad calls, but the facts are the facts today.
Guess you don’t read your comments, OA. Folks been trying to short it everyday since
Just do opposite of JP easy money $$$$$$
Do some research, genius. I’ve been short GOGO since $15.33 and $15.37. 15,300 common and 75 Feb put contracts.
Ps.
There’s no such thing as a “former geek”… Once a geek always a geek. Now move on and STFU nerd.
Ouch insulted by a troll lol
FXY looks really good here. Could be a nice hedge if you’re a bull. Inverse head and shoulder bottom in play.
so – did the premature announcement catch people off-guard and thus out of position for tomorrow, in-line with expectations so not a huge market mover, or something else? or is the actual stimulus more and will result in a “surprise” for more effect? While I believe the $600B is what was telegraphed, you never know
This minor bounce will be faded. It’s the first move on the news…it will ultimately be a head fake. Position accordingly.
I am positioned for lower prices, but am reconsidering now that I realize I’m on the side of the trolls. Chiefton, please say something coherent and thoughtful about the prospect of lower prices ASAP before I flip TZA to TNA.
Jeff looks like the options market isn’t pricing in a move for XLNX. I was thinking of doing a straddle on it both calls and puts. Last couple ER’s it has moved in excess of 10%. Just wanted your thoughts on it.
Earnings are today.
EBay reports tonight I think. Looking at options activity on the Jan5 52 puts somebody is betting Huge that they will miss
$WYNN is consolidating on the daily chart and has some room to bounce from here – if you are of the bullish sentiment
Or maybe it craps out with the market….
i love that company, but i can never make sense of the stock. i do agree that the position here looks pretty good if you’re inclined to give it a go.
Yeah – I learned to look at the stocks actions as opposed to the companies I “liked” – lately stocks have been bouncing in ranges and WYNN hit the bottom of theirs and the downgrade allowed a great entry point. 142 seems to be the support for this, so as long as it holds, so am I. Could run up to 150 by Friday, but I am expecting 145/146
I’m boarding a plane and will put up a post tonight.
Good luck everyone. Lots of movement up ahead.
JP, lets move on from this fucking GOGO trade and lets be honest you don’t own 15300 shares and 75 puts….oh and it’s Ragnar right? Post you next trade here time stamped and I’ll take you seriously.
Bought VSLR with a stop at 8 to play oil. Also, sold last part of GDX from a couple days ago.
Also picked up TBT.
Following Chess on this one.
yeh. he’s been money from the get go on the miners. good follow for that sector
Chief,
Indeed I am short 5,300 shares GOGO and hold 75 Feb puts. $$$$$$$$)
halfway up the page you said you shored 15,300 and you got called out and then lessened that number to 5,300. fucking lunkhead.
Covered 10k of those shares or what happened to the 15k?
I posted a “very purty” chart of GOGO for all to see here last week. Jeff even called it purty!
PS
GOGO is GOGOing down again today. Whowuddathunkit? Getting close to S2. For the win.
JP, I have a serious question for you. What do you do when the market is ripping? Is there some place you hide out or do you just not surf the internet at all? It is clear you like to be a nuisance to people and you only come around when the market is in a downtrend. I’m seriously wondering what you do the rest of the time though. Is there some bear hideout or something? Oh, also, what is the theory behind the multiple names? Why not just stick with one? Thanks in advance.
Closed out my TLT position. It’s kind of sad as I really enjoyed owning this but you have to take the win (monster win ) when you get them. I’m still keeping a bearish stance but going to try and time it intraday if possible.
I think that was a good call. Congratulations on the win. I had TLT at 101 but sold at 108 thinking I was a lucky man.
buy NQ 4180.75 for EOD of day run.
Woj,
I was posting plenty on market up days. My thesis was to short the growth stocks and that thesis proved to be a “fat pitch” if you will.i posted charts and gave clear reasons. Don’t be all sour grapes because Inhad the conviction to take opposite side of trade as the conditioned dip buyers. Learn to check your emotions at the door when it comes to trading. GL
Said like a total douchebag! GL
I don’t recall seeing you at all from December 15th to the end of the year while the s&p ripped 100 points. Let me guess, you were just riding your shorts out? Like chief said, post something when you actually get into it instead of just saying you’ve been short, you will get a little more credibility. Let us know when you cover your Gogo. What is your target for exit?
short term charts 30/60 saying tomorrow is up but the daily doesn’t look so hot to me. I’ve decided to lighten up and go mostly cash. I love to be in front of a move but this one is becoming to hard to call.
Sold NQ +5.25
holding Feb and March POT calls though. These stocks look ready to go.
Get your own handle you fucking hack. Oh and one more thing –> http://www.quickmeme.com/meme/3rtlwg
Covered 10k GOGO today. Still holding 5,300 and 75 February puts. All the haters can kiss my shaved black ass (extra Charles Barkley)!!!! Phenomenal trade to start the year off on the right foot.
Whatever Poser.
I am the Batman.
I shorted 20 million shares or $WHX yesterday at the close. Covered today at close. #RetroactiveTimestamp
snaps
it just can’t be this easy, more QE so buy everything and we’re all good. Happened to many times now.
Out WYNN 192s@ 4.5 – could have probably held longer, but I will take 320%
Bought back MACK @ 9.1
Bought JCP @ 7.32
Trying to decide if i should sell my $BBRY Mar 11’s (averaged in at .6) I think they have to make a deal to remain relevant.Anybody else in?
Seems like a perfect lotto trade to hold.
Thanks.There you is.Put up a column eh?(Extra Canada) Look at that VIX.I loved the big fade this AM.
Maybe i should ask the expert Jpmoregains