The only good take away from where prices sit right now is that you are at the mid-point of this range we’ve been tracking. Wit a bullish bias, there’s a buy in here to take you back to the upper end of the range. If you are a bear, there’s a decent short back to the lows.
The volatility instruments are saying the same. Insurance is pricey now, but the coiling in the VIX says we pop soon. Gold is slowly leaving its range, and the Yen is slowly giving back last nights move.
The Russell, which has been stronger as of late, just gave back a monster move here intra-day. We haven’t seen this type of action in quite awhile, so how it closes today ought to tell a story.
Under the surface, we got some risk on stocks leading, and some set-ups developing on the lower time frame that should create good movement later in the week, or even early next week.
I picked up SPLK calls this morning and watching FDX here.
OA
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Gpro…. Don’t touch that shit. Ruining my year
Yup…
HAHAHAHAHAHAH
stay put, we will have the final laugh after the earnings! I may add to my position if it goes further down!
Ummm, yeah here’s your chance. Wow.
seriously. this is a POS market hype stock. Earnings will crush and stock will tank i bet. haha
I usually save the usernames of people like you in stocktwits and come back later to haunt them down! I won`t be able to do it here so make sure to come here after the earnings! Don`t hide!
you dolt. Of COURSE they will beat. That’s what happens when you overload your channels and deplete your stock of product.
Sold PSUN yesterday and TLYS today. Moved them into FCX and BAS. Wish me luck.
@gasman or OA, do you agree with the following?
There are some big expirations coming in the world of crude futures. In short, it means those aforementioned savvy investors will be getting into the oil market in the next week or so. With that buying and selling comes volatility. “We could see a rip as high at $50 in the near term,”
this could get ugly.
run for the hills!
How this action can make anyone feel bullish is beyond me. Sell rips, sell dips.
+1
Bullish on shorts, maybe. Speed kills though, premium is ramping. We may have put in a lower high here market-wise.
WHAT?!
I do not see the need to pursue depreciating assets here.
love the old Conan shot!
Go ITM then on puts to reduce the extrinsic value. That’s what I did on YHOO, FEYE and SPLK.
About to tag upper end of VIX range at 22. 2% market swing on literally no news except lower oil. Position trading options is dead until further notice.
Not to go all zero hedge on anyone but Bulls have been ignoring warning signs for weeks.
Oil. EU QE. Greece. In that order.
So this is fun…
hard to position on such an aggressive move….we are going lower but it’s hard to pull trigger after this move. would love to see a little bit of buying to add shorts but so would everyone else.
went all cash…let me know when someone has a viable idea..going to eat a sammich
Long vodka tonics and a hot tub right now.
Long HAL Calls
0 for last 10 trades. Stopped out 100%. Trendlines mean nothing. You can’t win playing the tight stop below support game. Everything is trading below support before it bounces. Waiting for volatility to go away…
That’s because all these “rules” don’t mean anything. It is no different than astrology. It’s a game set up to make wall street and uncle Sam rich. The sooner you stop playing it, the more comfortable your twilight years will be.
Rules change in different environments as well.
Not sure what “rules” you guys are referring to but I’m talking about taking positions at good locations and placing stops. Good risk management which is a must in all environments.
How would you know which rules to use in which environment, until after the fact?
There are environment changes in high volatility/low volatility environments. Once you’ve seen one, you know how to adjust. As simple as going from trend mode, to mean reverting movements. Using longer term time frames in low vol environments, to short term time frames in high vol environments. That stuff…
bought the VXX 35.12
feels crashy.
Punted $FCX and some other depressing items (still holding $SCCO). The gold exposure dragging FCX down before doesn’t seem to be doing much to hold it up now. Finally rebuilt my cash position to deploy, with some capital losses to make up.
funny how that works, huh?
Makes me wonder why I even get involved in this nonsense.
and crude goes green. its like market is mocking us…
crude has already done it’s damage, if it rally’s it won;t matter.
chiefton, much respect for you! I am exhausted just watching…
yeah this is hard work! Haven’t hit a big one yet but I’m holding the VXX overnight and want to short the NQ.
what do you want to see to decide whether to hold NQ short overnight or close?
During the oil sell off it has taken 2 -3 days to engulf a prior days’ loss. As of 3:27 pm the prior days’ losses may be engulfed in one trading day. Lightening my oil short. Not going long yet.
Then after the 2 – 3 days the selling resumed. Forgot to add that.
USD/JPY closing below the 50 DMA would not be a good thing for Bulls. Another one to watch tonight.
Well, look at that. Just another Dow 40 day. Lol.
One quick scalp on the F puts. Should have sold my Jan 40 CRTOs early in the day for a break even. It looks like they quite possibly will go to 0.
We’re in a bull until a Republican becomes pres, then expect two years of crash before a real recovery ensues. If it’s Hillary, then QE continues ad infinitum, or ad nauseum, however you look at it.
This is not a political statement so please don’t get worked up about it.
May the crash resume tomorrow morning
if 4140 cracks here it’s lights out.
this right here is the bears chance to change this market for the whole year…not to sound dramatic but today is big for either side.
I feel like it’s becoming the inevitable conclusion. Which is why I shall have to get long, because every instinct I have is wrong (still channeling my inner Costanza, it’s been working)
called it and positioned for it.
Yup – your yen trade is kicking today
OA was still looking at long setups last night…ouch
All the warning signs were there for a crash.
…got SPY puts? 🙂
Yep, and I bought here this morning too.
ballsy move. Today is huge, if the bulls hang on today I will reassess at the end of day. You go stocks or market?
Of the set-ups we looked at, just FEYE. My IWM calls I took at yesterdays lows not looking bad.
OA: Contrarian Investor. Who’d’ve thunk it? Still Holding this Friday’s $SCTY calls with some trepidation ($48’s). Hoping for an upward swing just to keep the idiots out of the comments. Glad I sold $FCX yesterday. Still holding $SCCO for a small position. Do you have any change in medium term view on copper OA?
I have a long term view, never had a short term view.
the sellers came in yesterday around 1030 -11 after an early ramp. Lets see how today plays out
Sellers right on que! holding SPY puts.
In regards to the WTI – Brent spread narrowing, can someone(s) please explain the relevance of this, and it’s impact on the refiners who are getting a$$ rammed the past two sessions. Thank you.
I have no desire to trade anything right now. I have no edge. VIX broke out…could retest or break down back into the range. Hard to believe the Jan OPEX puts and calls will pay off either way.
Conditioned dip buyers getting their heads handed to them today after the morning bounce. Change of character finally as the Bears come out of hibernation.
No they aren’t you stupid fuck. Your declaration of victory at the opening print illustrates how bears still manage to take it in the ass in the end. Nice work on the bottom tick.
it’s funny how you show up into the hole all confident, then are nowhere to be seen for three days. Fucking troll.
Most excellent call chieftain!
Props Chiefton. Puts paying well. I’m definitely going ITM on any new trades with VIX doing what it’s doing.
+1 great call
I think we rally in the afternoon. Iwm Google Nflx Tesla Gild I’m long
Gotta say, the bottom looks ready to fall out here. Maybe not today but soon.
I would like a little bounce…I am not nearly short enough