Here we are. Things are starting to slip. As it pertains to equities, the Russell and Nasdaq are at the gates. If the selling starts, it will get fast. Should you choose not to react, you wake up to a 2% gap down in addition to late day selling.
In terms of fear, naturally it is going first. The VIX has broken its range.
Despite buying off the open, it wasn’t met with the same conviction that last weeks rallies were. I thought we’d prolong this move until next week, but here’s the bulls last test to toe the line.
Financials look like absolute shit, which has the Dow and S&P leading lower. Start a plan now if things are to get fast. Don’t freeze.
I’ve booked positions in CDK and IG for gains and JRJC and VIP for losses. I’ll use the proceeds to get TZA if we slip, to provide a little relief while making adjustments.
More later,
OA
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Time for the Fed to announce their plans to unwind their massive bond portfolio…
No signs of a reversal yet. I’m all cash after taking a 1.6% overall loss today. Just a wait and see moment today.
My $TZA hedge is becoming one of my larger positions. And looking to add.
Keep building it while reducing long exposure as prices fall. Not a bad plan.
That’s what I’ve been thinking. Sold my $SCTY calls for about 60% profit. Added to $TZA with proceeds.
@gasman, hope you’re in $UGAZ as we’re finally gaining traction. Last week at this time it sold off to new lows after running up. Seems to be more volume this week and a better draw down report tomorrow. Are you bullish short term for natty or would you sell the news tomorrow? thanks
Hey ffun, I booked my natty futures into this strength. Bought GASL this morning and just bought a starter in RRC. not interested in playing the storage numbers after a double digit move.
Bear flags and pennants into volume pockets below. It’s the same trade principle as getting into consolidation patterns with volume pockets above. Gasman and others have nailed that PEIX trade, as an example.
wow i sold that stock at 21
cant believe its that low again, already.
Fed still has the beige book card left to play today. I expect nothing short of a rally off of it. The nature of the rally will tell the tale.
I propose we look for the 2pm beige book to put some direction to the afternoon
If the QQQs break the low, I’m eyeballing GOOGL puts. Epic pocket below.
i%20thought%20i%20was%20the%20only%20one%20who%20noticed%20that.%20lots%20of%20room%20for%20this%20to%20drop%20to%20440%20if%20it%20gets%20fast.%20i%20got%20puts%20and%20will%20hold%20through%20earnings%2C%20if%20anything%20it%20is%20a%20hedge.%20
Market down 300 and GPRO is up. That pretty much sums things up for this market.
It was down huge yesterday
And the day before. It will end in the red today.
Have you reconsidered GOOGL?
Short Googl, sbux, aa, ual and still holding SPY puts purchased on yesterday’s morning bounce. Life is good! All the warnings signs were there folks. Some simply refused to accept it.
Declaring victory already?
you still feelin good you lil bitch?
Jeff how does a LULU short look to you?
One of my largest positions. Been holding from the high 30’s.
but your price target was $60. you gonna let it ride?
Would you sell?
in this market? i’m desperate for profits
Are you even in this?
yup. in it per your advice way back. all praise to you on this one
I like that play, if only for a short scalp.Running into HUGE volume overhead and the stock needs a bit of rest, IMHO.
That volume is at $66.
You’re right. It would be a better spot to initiate a short. Patience generally pays.
There is a gap @ 67.5 on the daily charts. It may get as high as that.
Going to all cash this Friday when XOMA 4s expire worthless. CRTO 40s likely the same. Still holding CYTK Feb 5s from way back, holding those as it’s house money now. Looking for some quick scalps on 1-2 day rallies. I should have held F Jan 15.5 puts another day, would have been an easy 3 bagger. Hmmm. Staying careful.
All cash. This doesn’t look good guys.
USO showing a change in character. A close above 18.00 today would engulf monday and sunday overnight. I have been making my weekly short decisions on thursday closes.
Here comes oil!
Final hour rug pull forthcoming. If not, then huge gap down. FED didn’t say anything to stop this.
Are you betting on that here?
I’ve been short for a few days and haven’t covered a single contract. I’m convinced. The data is all shit. This beige book bounce was so predictable, but the beige book didn’t really say anything we didn’t already know. There may be some short covering going on here. It’s now or never for bears.
Alright so maybe I covered all January expirations. Looking to roll puts here though. This rally isn’t enough to scare me off just yet.
go oil and XOM calls blazing. SLB reports tomorrow fyi
At first blush I saw XON and I was about to high-five you. Well, a gain is a gain.
1/2 of the remaining Monday and all of last Friday vanquished in 30 minutes. Still gotta see how it closes
During opex for December uso dropped Monday. We did not take out the previous Friday drop. This is shaping up to be a change in character.
FOMC meeting was the week off opex in December
OA,
Just got some BYD. How far to the top of the volume pocket?
$BZH seems to have responded well to testing the $17’s. One hopes it visits again so I can give it a swing.
Wake me up in few days after we breach the December lows….zzzzzz…zzzz.
Do you wait that long to take action? Or do you nibble in anticipation?
It seems the wait for confirmation trade is dead, as October suggests.
I have been short since close to December highs. I have not made a trade yet this year. I will let you all know when I do something. Confirmation only died because it took three central banks to stop it in october. ECN BOJ and PBOC.
bulls vs bear. the battle never gets old
I ask because I have been shopping. Thanks for the response.
I am coming up with a short list once this market does officially break. I will share. I am eyeing MU
SWKS for the cliff dive
this last 30 mins is crucial .To be honest if we hang out here I’ll more nervous going into tomorrow short than I was today. I want to see a flush.
You set to hold overnight either way?
sold the VXX and lightened up on some shorts. I don’t like the close may bounce for a couple of days before going lower. Will look to add again though as I think lower prices are coming.
Added back 10% of the oil short that I took off yesterday. Couldnt find a reason for 2pm ramp.
Wasn’t today the close of the oil futures contract? I could be wrong on that. Seems like they ramped it into the close there for that very purpose.
I hope the flush comes… on Monday when I’m changing brokerages.
i lol’d
Alright let’s out a couple of weeks on NFLX, LNKD, YHOO and BABA. Oh and AMZN. It gets fast below 285.
Up 80% GOGO Feb puts as my #1 short play keeps GOGOing down. Buckle up. Those 200 dma’s in the indices are magnets now.
Stupid asshole, at least stick to one alias.
Hollow candles into opex is bullish! setup for the flush after 1/22 ECB.
OA,
What about my earlier question on BYD? Did I ask it wrong? I usually jus listen to the recordings, so trying to ask here.
Sorry, the volume thins north of $13. The price highs are all at $14.
Quality,
“reply” link doesn’t work on my android. Jan 20th is the final trading day for the Feb (current contract)
Jeff – Are you looking at a major top? I know you said you were holding off on making that call, kind of like a reservation I guess while everyone else made theirs.
No, but correction in the cards tho.
this is a rare pattern forming in the indices, I played for the flush and didn’t get it so what it looks like now is we get a couple of mini bounces before the move lower. You usually see this set up in individual stocks but not the indices and a crash scenario is very uncommon but I thought it was coming today. reduced my YEN and TLT to 1/2 positions at the close but am definitely looking to add back in the next few days.
It is kind of scary how things are lining up.
Oil 52 wk Range: 44.20 – 107.50
as of this moment the Feb contracts sits at 48.81.
There is so much room in this trade for even a hint of mean reversion its goofy. $UWTI is set… It traded around 15 from 11/13 to 11/25, which during the same time oil was around 75.
WHAT IF WE HELD ON TO THIS FOR OUR GRANDKIDS. 1share : $10000. (I bought a lot of shares) Not If on this one, but When?.
I don’t think you understand how 3x works.
it was a joke
Bluestar – RICE still attractive and a name you’re looking at down the road? Post-apocalypse…
Last year the market dropped 6% in Jan. Then up 10%.
Beware the Fed. They hate Day Traders.
They hate eveyone except bankers
Got a decent NQ long on tonight. Anyone trade futures in the evenings?
Yen interesting too.
Wish I did…seems like that is where all the buy side moves are coming from lately. Hope we don’t get sold into again. Thinking OIH might be a play tomorrow.
this market isn’t for the faint of heart.
triple bottoms/tops almost always give way. 4280 NQ.
chief, did you mean 4080 NQ should give way?
thanks Shane yeah 4080. Maybe not today but I think soon.
Quality,
Options on feb crude contract did expire 1/14. Futures contract last trade date is 1/20. Appreciate your response to me.
the thing that’s surprising me the most is that VXX isn’t up 10% or more. Not sure what to make of it?
OA – some long forgotten alert for GLD @ 120 texted me this morn. Does something like DGLD appeal to you at all?
I wish it were more liquid, but love the idea.
4100 on the NQ is weak support but the last there is IMO before the trap door opens.
4100 is your line in the sand, if we break and close below it it will get fast as 4080 won’t provide any support. Nice move up so far.
Ahhh… After a 6% run up, still bearish on gold? It’s been break one level after another. Isn’t it time to just admit it’s a good long?
Who are you talking to?
youve been bearish on gold for how long? I remember seeing a bearish stance on it as recently as Friday or Monday. Could have in in one of the AHWOA vids, can’t remember
lol. You thanked me a few weeks ago for helping you get long miners.
I’ve been bearish on Gold since 2011. It’s been down quite a lot since then. Funny of you to peacock after a little rally. Can’t I maintain my bearish posture here without a position? I’ve done well shorting Gold over the years. Can’t I follow the trend?
ok. acknowledge trend is broken?
Are you kidding? It would take a lot to break that trend. Zoom out a little.
Ah the one thing i can trade….always catches a bid jan feb….its a short in spring into the summer dulldrums
not looking good, hold on to your hats.
Bought GDX if anyone cares 😀
JEFF – That profile in NUGT is serious biz to the upside.. What do you think of our old BUY NUGT here this time?
This post is not a joke. 🙂
after like a 50% runup???
That’s what I said after the first 20% it ran up…
But you say Gold and miners are going higher…lol
i said that yesterday right? and today up 20% right? I’m not adding today.
back in the VXX at 35.25
Stop Loss at 20
Chief- that NQ starting to look real dicey. Fully leveraged and pressing shorts here.
Full tilt? Uh-oh!
certainly aggressive, you might get it though support can only hold so many times.
Bought a few ITM QQQ calls right here.. Only because it was the exact opposite of what I wanted to do, and lately everything I do is wrong.
Trading full Constanza.. love it.
this would have to be a monumental stock save at this point. The bulls are defending this area with everything they have
“stick save”
I LOL’d.
Sensing a massive amount of negative sentiment around here. Respect the opinions of all you guys…but wow. It seems worse than the October lows, let alone December.
The only issue I have with this statement is the # of annoying comments is down and the CNN fear and greed index isn’t nearly as low as the Oct lows. I suspect we have more downside.
place your bets! This is the spot…higher or lower?
Buckle up – we are going lower.
DING!
higher. KILL THE SHORTS!
Panic is in the air….my bet is the “Invisible Hand” steps up and keeps the bull alive (for now)
wow. $twtr just took a dump
Whoosh that was fast.
I want to puke. But my bias is still up into next week. crude will hit mid 50s.
Anyone else notice how GOOGL is trading today? Been super bearish since November while the market rallied, and now it’s sitting on the edge of a reversal pattern like it doesn’t have a care in the world.
Actually looks like a little bear flag to me. No stock will be safe.
I’m still holding this one. Valuation is reasonable. Will add if it goes to mid $400’s
a lot of people looking for the save to come but nobody’s stopping this today IMO I thought we were going to get this yesterday. Still have some decent short exposure….but not as much as I would like
What the hell is going on with $BZH? Can’t find a word of news for a 10% flush.
I took a tiny position in February calls when it was at about $17.80. My $16 in the money calls are about to be out of the freaking money.
All the homebuilders are down. KBH reported the other day and their numbers sucked. The others all followed. BZH actually led the move by a few minutes. Looks like one of the weaker stocks in the sector.
Going to be interesting later today to see what kind of margin carnage this SNB action has caused. When do they do margin calls for Forex?
I think this blog post needs to be update to “In the parlor of Hell” as I am pretty sure we have moved past the Gates.
Maybe Hell’s Kitchen? Hell’s Den?….Next week it can be “Hell Hot Tub”
risk stocks getting clobbered today. might have to add to BABA and TWTR
These stocks are still in the proverbial “fag box”. I’d focus on what’s working which isn’t a ton of stuff right now.
did you all notice number of biotechs making 4+% down moves vs up moves is at an extreme.
ah i see bchu’s comment above about risk stocks
Picked up some TNA here today. Playing the “stick save” trade