Just about everything out there is wound up for the break. Stocks, metals, volatility, and the yen. Again, in a week or so, this will spark a violent move. Until then, be quick to book gains, go easy on fighting trends, and keep overall time frames short.
I think next week will be the opposite of this week. Strength in stocks early and sell off into the end of the week. At that point, We should start getting closer to leaving these ranges.
Stay tuned.
OA
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yikes!
Near the gates and within two cities there will be scourges the like of which was never seen; famine within plague, people put out by steel; crying to the great immortal God for relief.
In other words, the market will rip another 20% up.
LOL at the web address on that first chart… http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/files/2015/01/fuckstocks.png
/GC peaking its head above that tough 1220 resistance. could get going
the next few weeks will change you
men will be made in 2015.
haha.
I have a long YEN (futures) and TLT position as a way to be short and I have a few long option positions but to be honest this market is almost impossible to trade. For every sector that looks good there’s one that looks bad. My bias is short but there’s no way I’m comfortable going in heavy as there are more divergences in this market than I’ve ever seen. Someone is going to get screwed just make sure it’s not you.
well said, advice taken.
Yeah, like when was the last time builders lead a rally? 2005?
yeah weird market for sure.
smart money usually gets in first…..are they thinking the next real estate phase is about to begin?
7+ years has passed since that bubble popped. Bankruptcy’s are now off the credit reports and interest rates are still extremely low. Squatters had time to build up savings via not paying a mortgage. Gas prices are putting $100 a month in everyone’s pockets. The general itch to move and change of scenario is natural human behavior every 5-7 years.
but that’s none of my business.
Matt Bear,
As always no argument with a trader’s thesis. Here on the ground in the DC-Baltimore area, at the lower end price range I see properties that were previously the most distresses “renovated” and on the market priced to perfection.
here, a 30 year 375 K fixed 5 percent down loan looks like about $2,100 a month, and 29 K is needed to close.
For that 375 K you get a distressed property with a “Home Depot” renovation or a new home built to the same quality as Ikea furniture.
An older house nearby sold for 300 K. It has visible maintenance issues and so far no sign of the new owners working on it.
A few years ago an unfinished house sat for two years, exposed particle board decaying. A builder slapped vinyl siding on the rot and sold it for 450 K.
banks needed to get rid of all the excess inventory before they would new build debt. That process began a year and a half ago around this joint witnessing it with awe . I talked about it ad nauseam over on Chess’ blog back in the spring/summer of 2013. At that time homebulders had gotten way ahead of themselves.May of 2013 many of those share prices were already up 350~400% off the 2009 lows and again the 3rd week in Sept 2011 correction lows.(where I purchased last ins and where I still maintain a core position at $5.17..yes, I do)
Fly was all over KBH (me too) he should have held on to those shares(woulda~shoulda~coulda)
Location..Location…Location
With all due respect, I posted all entries/exits via stock pickr and here on the pages of iBC once they closed up shop over there at the street.
Truth..
and this past spring/summer there was an added Explosion of new homes being built on tiny little postage size lots and in places you would never consider.
Burbs of Motown..’aka..Richville’
Lets just say this is certainly turning into a more exciting year than last year. I will be more flexible this year than last year. I will profit both ways. Long and short but I will have a short bias.
bought Nat gas Futures. 2.965
If you’re a bull the biggest concern is the strength in the TLT.
Let there be ‘No’ doubt about that..
@ Chiefton I didn’t take any trades today at all. Nothing but cash i was fortunate enough to catch KITE and BITA (Sold early on both). That VIX setup is scary; looks to be getting ready to breakout to the North zone.
100% Cash and confused as hell
The ONLY thing I have a short bias on is GPRO as it eventually will trade down to 2x sales
fok! don’t say this. this has been the biggest thorn in my portfolio this year so far
iBC seems to be enamored with the oil trade. All I can say is, if you don’t understand it, don’t trade it.
What’s not to understand about it?
Human society was built on it, and the world that exists today run off of the stuff.
I thought sending depreciating, increasingly worthless dollars to other countries in exchange for them destroying their own environment making oil was a brilliant Machiavellian long term strategy for the USA.
Really, it was one of our best global plays.
Pay someone else melting dollars for oil and save our own natural resources for another day. I guess that excellent strategy ran up against the short term thinking of today’s American psyche.
Natural gas futures historic move higher we see . A move up dollar fast it can go to 7.95. We see a huge rally in oil now . Natural gas will lead oil it will be the commodity of 2015 up
$gld will be out if that range starting tomorrow
iBC is stuck in the oil trade, have been for months.
yeh, no kidding. wrong side of it tho
What a rookie mistake to hold a 3x oil related EFT over the weekend – what was I thinking??? $UWTI
correction – ETF – oil down almost 2%
worst advice ever. Condolences
Not done based on advice – I was sitting there looking at a breakeven point around 3:50PM on Friday and should have bailed. A costly mistake on my part.
Huge infinity move in natural gas futures it will help out oil. Monster short squeeze up
Goldman call at 12on oil blast off time huge short squeeze up oil can ignite to 60. Natural gas will ignite higher on its own fundamentals strong demand strong LNG fuel of world it can go to 9
Can anyone with a paid finviz account export a screener list for me?
Industry (Stocks only)
Option/Short (Optionable)
Average Volume (Over 1M)
Current Volume (Over 500k)
Should be 1123 stocks. Thanks in advance
send to
[email protected]
Something else to look at with regards to oil – there may be some turmoil in Saudi Arabia soon. Not sure if this will change anything with policy, but could cause some ripples.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/saudi-arabia-king-abdullah-hospital-lung-infection-article-1.2064595
stop hit on Natty overnight. -2.5% Sucks.
Surprising oil action this am. Looking at puts in EMES @ 50
Cue the strutting to the bank trader pose on this $LULU move
Crude needs to roll over to $39 and Getty this over with
Another EPIC FAIL for OA.
He went long calls on TSLA, GOGO last week and long UWTI Friday. Ouch. All of them getting annihilated.
Chess N Wine continues to knock it outta the park, folks. Just sayin’…
Fuck you, pal. We’ve watched you, under 3 dozen aliases lose your ass too. Especially when you left your pussy ass comments capitulating here and apologizing. Take your bitch-ass back to stocktwits.
to be fair, Chess N Wine has been killing it with his calls of late.
That’s not the fucking argument.
never said it was. Just giving CnW some props. Not everyone is always against you
52 week Low in jdst. Haha
FCAU strong like a bull here. Still holding a long position from $10 on this. I think it doubles within 12 months
Sold GOOGL at the open today and took 1% hit from opening at 506, thank god.
Anyone prick piling on someone for having a bad streak hasn’t been in the market long enough to know anything. And they have no class.
Sold FRO today for an 85% gain and booked calls in DHT. Still riding TNK. Think the shippers need to cool a bit here.
short Nq 4164
If we close weak this short will be a longer term hold. Very sketchy spot here for the market.
Keep your eye on the AG stocks. Good longs in this environment.
GOGO has been in a DOWNTREND since the September high, genius! Way to get long last week! LOL
http://scharts.co/1BcwiuL
TSLA…same thing!! Meanwhile, Chess has been getting short these names. Just sayin’..
http://scharts.co/1BcwZnR
What are your thoughts on oil?
right here right now
Then go follow him and stop following OA if you think Chess is that much of a God, but see you back here in a couple weeks looking for the right direction. Man you are annoying!
Short GMCR here; chasing a little but chart looks like poopy. Took the weekly 130 strike put. FWIW. Stop over 136.
Markets all look weak with bad technical setups. TZA is my largest holding here today. Just trying to make some pennies until we get some confirmation of direction.
Bias is down though
What a surprise the trolls are back. Wonder where they were when Jeff was printing money on 1000% X and BABA trades….lol
no one kicks a man when he is up
Loving that coiling up SWC chart. Am in Apr15’s.Sold my FL 55’s(knife catch) and rolled into 60’s at .75
Getting clubbed like a baby seal on the beach in GPRO…hopefully post this marks a bottom. Was doing a decent job of dancing between the elephants and shoulda listened to OA and not gotten involved below 63 – FML
FML for selling half my $JNUG @ $30!
I appreciate the good commentary provided out there to help with the learning on this subject – we are truly going through an interesting period and while I hate losing money, it tends to drive points home that you don’t easily forget.
That being said, EMES is coiling up this afternoon – I am short on this, but not sure – definitely looks like a directional move is coming
well – it did break to the upside. may have to close my put if this breeches 54
Grabbed some CELG $120 weeklie calls here. May break out to ATH. Stop under $115