EU Banks are Expected to Draw $629 Billion in Three Year Notes Next Week

“Euro-area banks may tap the European Central Bank next week for almost as much three-year cash as they did in December in an operation that could prolong a rally in bond markets.

Financial institutions will ask the ECB for 470 billion euros ($629 billion) in three-year funds for allotment on Feb. 29, the median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey shows. While that’s less than the record 489 billion euro take-up at the first tender on Dec. 21, it may increase total cash in the system by more than 300 billion euros, saidLuca Cazzulani, a senior fixed-income strategist at UniCredit SpA (UCG) in Milan.

“Part of the increase will likely be parked, at least temporarily, in the sovereign-bond market and support mainly the performance of Italian and Spanish bonds,” said Cazzulani. Still, “expectations are at a pretty high level, which creates some room for disappointment,” he said. “Gross demand below 400 billion euros would likely put upward pressure on spreads in the short term.”

Italian and Spanish bonds have risen since the ECB’s first three-year loan, suggesting banks are investing at least some of the money in higher yielding assets. That’s helped ease concern about a credit crunch and won governments time to agree on measures to contain the sovereign debt crisis….”

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