Author Archives: CRONKITE
“The 5+ year stocks bull market continues to tighten its noose around the bears throats, though despite reddening faces and bulging eyes this has not halted the increasingly exasperated calls for the stocks bull markets always imminent end to definitely end this time.
The stocks bull market has confounded, ALL and I mean ALL, that following each economic data release, that following so called ‘expert’ stocks trend analysis, that following escalating wars in Ukraine and the Khazar Empires rampage on the defenseless population of Palestine such as on the Gaza concentration camp now killing over 400 of the closest descendants of the original Jews of the region of 2000 years ago, that following even the Russian Mafia blasting a large passenger plane out of the sky killing near 300 which is the primary focus of U.S. Media as it looks at past air liners shot down whilst convientely forgetting the Iranian Passenger plane that the U.S. Shot down in 1988 killing all 290 on board.
All of which must, mean with near religious End Times fervour that this time the stocks bull market MUST have ended, only to find that the few percentages drop in the stock indices once more reversed towards a trend to NEW ALL TIME HIGHs as illustrated by indices such as the Dow.
The Dow reversed Thursdays price drop on the back of the Putin’s terror henchmen blasting Flight MH17 out of east Ukrainian sky that the perma fanatically stock armageddonists had convinced themselves had heralded an end to the stocks bull market that as usual was regurgitated at length by the mainstream financial media.
Dow Summer Correction Fails to Materialise
My last in-depth look at the stock market concluded in the following trend expectation for a significant correction into the end of June before the Dow marched to new all time highs by early August.
05 Jun 2014 - Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast Summer 2014
Stock Market Forecast Conclusion
The final conclusion for the Stock Market is for the Dow’s rally to shortly terminate just before reaching 17k, probably at around Dow 16,950, then for the Dow to target a swift downtrend in to the range of 16,200 to 16,000 that may even bottom before the end of June. Which would set the scene for the stock market’s next assault on Dow 17k into early August as illustrated by the below forecast graph, a failure of which I imagine would subsequently prompt many perma bears to start screaming DOUBLE TOP at the top of their lungs on the likes of CNBC and regurgitated at length by the blogosfear.
The Dangers of Stock Market Rallying Without Correcting
The stock market trend since my last analysis whilst volatile has nevertheless been bullish and thus failed to unwind bullish sentiment despite the occasional sharp 1 day drops that failed to trigger a meaningful correction which to me implies -
a. A stronger correction is now more probable
b. The probability for an ACTUAL ‘THE TOP’ materialising in the stock market has increased to what percent ? Best guess 25%.
Is the Stocks Bull Market Over?
To reiterate what I have periodically and unequivocally stated for the PAST FIVE YEARS and once more excerpted below, taken from an article when the Dow was significantly LOWER.
The bottom line is this the US government shutdown is GREAT NEWS! because for bull markets to persist and continue they NEED BAD NEWS every few months, THEY NEED MOST PEOPLE TO BE SKEPTICAL, TOO AFRAID TO INVEST! And so it continues to be the case for the DURATION OF THIS BULL MARKET, where over 90%, NINTEY PERCENT OF Market commentators have been WRONG and continue to be WRONG, Everyone who has just proclaimed its END IS WRONG and Will BE CRUCIFIED, just as they have been crucified at every market turn for the past FIVE YEARS !…..”
“………Greenspan, 88, who was chairman of the U.S. central bank for more than 18 years, from 1987 to 2006, managed to steer the economy through multiple crises, mainly by slashing rates and remaining upbeat. He suffered a remarkable fall from grace after leaving office and has apologized for trusting big banks too much. He has since gone back and re-examined his views on the economy.
Greenspan, now the president of Greenspan Associates LLC, an economic consulting firm, spoke to MarketWatch about the current stance of Fed policy, the economy and what to do about asset bubbles. The economy will do all right in the near term, he said, buoyed by a strong equity market, but he added that he remains worried that we could be facing another false dawn.
The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
MarketWatch: What is the biggest challenge facing the Fed?
Greenspan: How to unwind the huge increase in the size of its balance sheet with minimal impact. It is not going to be easy, and it is not obvious exactly how to do it….”
“Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell sharply in June and the prior month’s data was revised to show less robust growth, suggesting the housing market would struggle to regain momentum.
The Commerce Department said on Thursday that sales dropped 8.1 percent, the largest decline since July 2013, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 406,000 units.
May’s sales pace was revised to 442,000 units from the previously reported 504,000 units.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales at a 479,000-unit pace last month. Compared to June of last year, sales were down 11.5 percent.
A run-up in mortgage rates, as well as a shortage of properties for sale, pressured home sales late last year….”
“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) just cut its forecast for global GDP growth in 2014 to 3.4% from 3.6%.
“Global growth could be weaker for longer, given the lack of robust momentum in advanced economies,” they said via Bloomberg. “Monetary policy should thus remain accomodative in all major advanced economies.”
Among the biggest revisions was U.S. 2014 GDP growth, which was cut to 1.7% from an earlier forecast of 2.8%.
The organization expects the Euro area to expand 1.1%, and Japan to gain 1.5%.
They do, however, expect global growth to accelerate to 4.0% in 2015….”
“Apple could be “obsolete” in three years, due to increasing competition and “make-believe” valuations in the technology sector, one analyst told CNBC on Thursday.
The comments came after Apple reported second-quarter net profit of $7.75 billion on Tuesday, up 12 percent from $6.90 billion in the same period last year….”
” “What the government is good at is collecting taxes, taking away your freedoms and killing people. It’s not good at much else.” —Author Tom Clancy
Call it what you will—taxes, penalties, fees, fines, regulations, tariffs, tickets, permits, surcharges, tolls, asset forfeitures, foreclosures, etc.—but the only word that truly describes the constant bilking of the American taxpayer by the government and its corporate partners is theft.
We’re operating in a topsy-turvy Sherwood Forest where instead of Robin Hood and his merry band of thieves stealing from the rich to feed the poor, you’ve got the government and its merry band of corporate thieves stealing from the poor to fatten the wallets of the rich. In this way, the poor get poorer and the rich get richer. All the while, the American Dream of peace, prosperity, and liberty has turned into a nightmare of endless wars, debilitating debt, and outright tyranny.
What Americans don’t seem to comprehend is that if the government can arbitrarily take away your property, without your having much say about it, you have no true rights. You’re nothing more than a serf or a slave.
In this way, the police state with all of its trappings—from surveillance cameras, militarized police, SWAT team raids, truancy and zero tolerance policies, asset forfeiture laws, privatized prisons and red light cameras to Sting Ray guns, fusion centers, drones, black boxes, hollow-point bullets, detention centers, speed traps and abundance of laws criminalizing otherwise legitimate conduct—is little more than a front for a high-dollar covert operation aimed at laundering as much money as possible through government agencies and into the bank accounts of corporations.
The rationalizations for the American police state are many. There’s the so-called threat of terrorism, the ongoing Drug War, the influx of illegal immigrants, the threat of civil unrest in the face of economic collapse, etc. However, these rationalizations are merely excuses for the growth of a government behemoth, one which works hand in hand with corporations to profit from a society kept under lockdown and in fear at all times.
Indeed, as I point out in my book A Government of Wolves: The Emerging American Police State, the real motivating factor behind erecting a police state is not to protect the people, but to further enrich the powerful. Consider the following costly line items, all part of the government’s so-called quest to keep us safe and fight terrorism while entrenching the police state, enriching the elite, and further shredding our constitutional rights:
$4.2 billion for militarized police. Almost 13,000 agencies in all 50 states and four U.S. territories participate in a military “recycling” program which allows the Defense Department to transfer surplus military hardware to local and state police. In 2012 alone, $546 million worth of military equipment was distributed to law enforcement agencies throughout the country.
$34 billion for police departments to add to their arsenals of weapons and equipment. Since President Obama took office, police departments across the country “have received tens of thousands of machine guns; nearly 200,000 ammunition magazines; thousands of pieces of camouflage and night-vision equipment; and hundreds of silencers, armored cars and aircraft.” While police departments like to frame the acquisition of military surplus as a money-saving method, in a twisted sort of double jeopardy, the taxpayer ends up footing a bigger bill. First, taxpayers are forced to pay millions of dollars for equipment which the Defense Department purchases from megacorporations only to abandon after a few years. Then taxpayers find themselves footing the bill to maintain the costly equipment once it has been acquired by the local police.
$6 billion in assets seized by the federal government in one year alone. Relying on the topsy-turvy legal theory that one’s property can not only be guilty of a crime but is also guilty until proven innocent, government agencies have eagerly cashed in on the civil asset forfeiture revenue scheme, which allows police to seize private property they “suspect” may be connected to criminal activity. Then whether or not any crime is actually proven to have taken place, the cops keeps the citizen’s property. Eighty percent of these asset forfeiture cases result in no charge against the property owner. Some states are actually considering expanding the use of asset forfeiture laws to include petty misdemeanors. This would mean that property could be seized in cases of minor crimes such as harassment, possession of small amounts of marijuana, and trespassing in a public park after dark.
$11,000 per hour for a SWAT team raid on a government dissident. The raid was carried out against Terry Porter, a Maryland resident who runs a welding business, is married with three kids, is outspoken about his views of the government, and has been labeled a prepper because he has an underground bunker and food supplies in case things turn apocalyptic. The raiding team included “150 Maryland State Police, FBI, State Fire Marshal’s bomb squad and County SWAT teams, complete with two police helicopters, two Bearcat ‘special response’ vehicles, mobile command posts, snipers, police dogs, bomb disposal truck, bomb sniffing robots and a huge excavator. They even brought in food trucks.”
$3.8 billion requested by the Obama administration to send more immigration judges to the southern border, build additional detention camps and add border patrol agents. Border Patrol agents are already allowed to search people’s homes, intimately probe their bodies, and rifle through their belongings, all without a warrant. As one journalist put it, “The surveillance apparatus is in your face. The high-powered cameras are pointed at you; the drones are above you; you’re stopped regularly at checkpoints and interrogated.” For example, an American citizen entering the U.S. from Mexico was subjected to a full-body cavity search in which she was subjected to a variety of invasive procedures, including an observed bowel movement and a CT scan, all because a drug dog jumped on her when she was going through border security. Physicians found no drugs hidden in her body……..”
“LONDON (MarketWatch) — A plane carrying close on 300 innocent people gets shot down along one of the most sensitive borders in the world. Israel invades Gaza, reigniting the deepest wounds in the Middle East, and potentially sparking another regional conflict. A few hundred miles away, a militant insurgency threatens to turn Iraq into a full-blown terrorist state.
The world has not been short of things to worry about in the last week, or the news bulletins short on drama and conflict.
But how did the financial markets react? A few stocks got marked down, and goldGCZ4 +0.08% made one of its reflex moves upwards. Yet on the whole, they barely registered any reaction. It was as if nothing of significance had happened.
Israeli soldiers take position along a fence near the border with Gaza.
There is a message in that, and an interesting one.
The markets are no longer interested in what happens in the rest of the world. The days when geopolitics could impact the prices of stocks, bonds, commodities or currencies in any significant way have been consigned to the past.
There are two possible explanations for that: firstly that there are not any wars or revolutions any more that can dramatically change the outlook for the global economy; and secondly, that the markets are so pumped up by quantitative easing, and easy money from the central banks, that anything else that happens pales into triviality by comparison.
The truth is probably somewhere in between. Either way, investors can safely ignore war and politics from now on when they are structuring their portfolio.
The declining interest of the financial markets in what is happening around the world has been evident for some time. The Arab Spring that saw governments fall across the Middle East was probably the last set of uprisings to make any real impact, but even that was largely restricted to frontier indexes such as Egypt XX:DWEG +0.99% , and they don’t count for a great deal in the greater scheme of things.
But it has been most noticeable this year. It is not as if the past few months have been short on drama….”
“Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signal she won’t raise interest rates to fight bubbles in financial markets, and that’s a mistake, asserts Jeremy Grantham, founder of money manager GMO.
“She will not use interest rates to head off or curtail any asset bubbles encouraged by the extremely low rates that might appear,” he writes in the firm’s quarterly commentary.
“History is clear: very low rates absolutely will encourage extreme speculation. But Yellen will, as Greenspan and Bernanke before her, attempt to limit only the damage any breaking bubbles might cause.”
“The evidence against this policy after two of the handful of the most painful burst bubbles in history is impressive,” he writes…..”
“Mortgage rates didn’t move at all last week, but more borrowers made applications to refinance their home loans.
A weekly measure of loan volume by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed a 2.4 percent gain in total applications week-to-week, with a 4 percent jump in refinances leading the charge.
Refinancing has been languishing for more than a year, after rates jumped a full percentage point in the spring of 2013. Refinance application volume is still down over 40 percent from a year ago, despite slightly lower rates currently.
Loan applications to purchase a home are still languishing, up just 0.3 percent week-to-week, on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the MBA. They are down 15 percent from a year ago. This as the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) remained unchanged at 4.33 percent. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 54.4 percent of total applications, the highest level since March 2014…..”
“Regulators are expected to vote Wednesday to end a longtime staple of the investment industry—the fixed $1 share price for money-market mutual funds—at least for some money funds used by big investors.
The idea is to minimize the risk of a mass withdrawal from the funds during a financial panic. The Securities and Exchange Commission may also vote to let money funds block withdrawals during periods of stress or impose new fees for withdrawals.
The “breaking of the buck” by a large money fund during the 2008 crisis stoked a run on some other funds and forced the government to intervene to restore confidence.
Under the new rules, the share prices of the funds involved will be required to “float,” just as with other mutual funds. Big institutional investors could lose principal if the value of the shares falls below $1. Individual investors likely won’t be affected.
The idea behind adopting floating prices for a portion of the $2.6 trillion money-market fund industry is to stress that while the funds are safer than stocks and many other investments, they still carry some risk. Regulators say greater awareness of the risk would reduce the potential for crippling runs on money funds because investors would have acclimated themselves to fluctuating prices….”
“The bevy of regulation since the 2008 financial crisis has weakened the banking sector to the point that another meltdown is inevitable, says private equity star J. Christopher Flowers, CEO of J.C. Flowers.
“All the stuff that has happened, and all the rules we’ve introduced have depressed profitability. And that is a real vulnerability,” he tells the Financial Times. “Nobody is going to invest in an industry with returns of 5 percent.”
While Flowers has invested in banks in the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and the Netherlands, he notes, regulators are engaged in a fool’s errand in trying to eliminate risk from the banking industry.
“How do you make something that lends money at risk a utility?” Flowers asks rhetorically…..”
Strategy of killing civilians in Gaza and eastern Ukraine has same culprits
“(WMR)—The attack policy that the Israel Defense Force (IDF) has used in indiscriminately targeting civilians in Gaza mirrors the policy of the Ukrainian government in attacking civilians in eastern Ukraine. Moreover, the two operations, Israel’s “Protective Edge” and Ukraine’s “Anti-terrorist operation,” have something else in common. Both were developed by the same Zionist fascist elements who are calling the shots in Jerusalem and Kiev.
Ukrainian-Israeli billionaire Igor Kolomoisky, who has served as the governor of Dnepropetrovsk province in eastern Ukraine since March, has spent billions of dollars beefing up the Ukrainian army with advanced weapons used to target civilians in eastern Ukraine. The latest operation by Ukraine saw an airstrike on residential apartment buildings in Snezhnoe in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic. A number of civilians, including women, the elderly, and children have been killed by Ukrainian forces financed by Kolomoisky. In addition, Kolomoisky has relied on the help of ex-IDF forces ever since he helped oust Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in February. It is believed that Kolomoisky funded the arrival in Ukraine of a team of ex-IDF commandos, known as the “Blue Helmets of Maidan” and led by an Israeli commando code-named “Delta,” to fight alongside anti-Yanukovych forces in the Maidan Square uprising. The Israeli Blue Helmets of Maidan fought alongside a number of neo-Nazi units, including those from the Svoboda and Right Sector organizations…..”
“An American activist warns about the growing problem of homelessness in the United States, saying a larger degree of people are to lose their homes in the coming years due to wrong economic policies adopted in the country.
“The problem of homelessness in the United States is going to be a growing problem for various reasons,” said Abayomi Azikiwe, the editor of Pan-African News Wire in an interview with Press TV Sunday.
He described the massive foreclosure crisis which coincided with the so-called great recession which began in 2007-2008 as one of the reasons.
“Millions upon millions of residents of the US lost their homes as the result of predatory lending by the banks. Of course these lending schemes were backed up by some of the larger insurance companies and bond holders.”
This trend threatened the US economy and consequently the world capitalist economy in general with collapse, added Azikiwe who is also an organizer of the Workers World Party in Detroit.
According to Azikiwe, the US economic decision makers failed to stabilize the country’s economy despite approving bailout packages through extending of liquidity by the US Federal reserve bank.
“This of course is causing an increase in evictions and resulting in a greater degree of homelessness for people inside the United States.”
He made the remarks as more American cities are criminalizing sleeping in public places including parks and even in personal vehicles.”
“A top pro-Russia rebel commander in eastern Ukraine has given a bizarre version of events surrounding the Malaysian jetliner crash — suggesting many of the victims may have died days before the plane took off.
The pro-rebel website Russkaya Vesna on Friday quoted Igor Girkin as saying he was told by people at the crash site that “a significant number of the bodies weren’t fresh,” adding that he was told they were drained of blood and reeked of decomposition….”
Cheers on your weekend!