It’s time to stop skipping around. I have a year to make, and being up only ~20% so far isn’t in the final plan. My last few years have been volatile, with me longing for the heat of 2009 and 2010, where I was able to return absurd percentages.

My last year’s numbers would have been stellar, if not for what preceded them.

So far, I’m holding a good gain, but looking at what the market has done largely by itself, it’s not enough. Volatility in my small number of positions keeps holding me back. But I can feel the chips falling into place.

The multifamilies are ramping hard now. People are figuring out that there’s gold in the coal.

I’ve had a very successful year trading around positions. This is only marginally reflected because the summer brought sell offs in my holdings. If I can get some big rallies in a few of my core themes, this year could run +40% very easily.

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It’s a Friday, and my heart isn’t in this right now. Rather, my imagination keeps running away outside to whatever’s left of Summer slipping away. This is most inopportune, since work is a runaway train.

So, here’s a brief list of things going through my mind right now.

1) War is overrated and oil is begging to get taken down a notch. Tell me when these geopolitical type scares have actually panned out? The last time was under what, Carter? The oil market is well supplied; a few oil traders are just gaming the system to make their year’s. Meanwhile, a US energy revolution is sweeping accross America.

2) Multifamily REITs selling off alongside broader REITs is as careless an act as I can think of. These companies are all 95% plus occupied with rising rates and numerous projects in the pipeline. Tell me who was forecasting that two years ago, other than myself and a handful of others? Yields are only a problem on a case by case basis. Sellers slamming the whole space here are irresponsible.

3) Coal prices and associated companies are unnecessarily low. Natural gas prices have come back nicely from the death throes they were convulsing in last year. The EPA can only do so much to legitimate, legal owners of coal producing assets. There’s this power grid we have that demands base load, after all. And even the most eco-friendly of Californian millionaires will not tolerate their precious Tesla batteries running dry. Even with natural gas transitioning taking place, there’s a price point where coal comes back online Everyone hates coal, making it pretty attractive right now.

4) I still fear for the wellbeing of Tesla longs, but I can only care so much. On a different note, there was a Seeking Alpha article about battery supply problems that made no sense. It was trying to argue that batteries will constrain Tesla production, but it pointed out that Tesla’s primary competitors are transitioning away from using the kinds of batteries that make up Tesla’s product. At most, I could see competition for batteries pushing up Tesla’s costs, keeping their vision of an affordable mainstream electric vehicle at bay (for longer than longs could survive, I might add). But at some point, Tesla forcing helping to force battery prices higher causes the electronics manufacturers to convert to the newer battery options, freeing up capacity. Besides 100,000 vehicles a year for Tesla isn’t exactly a plague of rats.

5) The natural gas and fracking boom will run further than any of you can possibly fathom. There is no reason not to buy into this. The go to corporations are the specialists who make the backbone of the extraction process (like BAS) and coporations or partnerships supplying the materials that make it all possible (I like HCLP). Risks that the frackers will saturate the market with so much gas and oil that it will collapse profits have blown over. Chesapeake energy was last year. Aubrey McClendon’s ass has been fired.

6) I’m not sure I can like this DRI position if prices for commodities keep pushing higher. But there was plenty of opportunity for the resturant business to line up cheap access to the raw foodstuffs they need for any number of months into the future. So I’m going to hope for the unexpected. Meanwhile, the job market is humming along. Now go eat at Red Lobster tonight.

7) The uranium market disgusts me. I knew it would blow out again. So far CCJ is taking the damage in stride. There’s a major fuel supply issue looming, but reactors just use up fuel so slowly, it takes forever for it all to wind its way through the system. It would be nice if the Japanese could get off their culturally slow-as-shit asses and maybe do something expediently for once in their lives. No, no, please, by all means continue to import oil and coal to your resource depleted island for sky high prices. Who needs an economy, especially with the egregious demographics problems of a nation like Japan?

8) I would rather lick an ant hill than let the sequal to the Catholic Church circa 12th century France come back to power – whether it’s crosses painted on the walls or crescents. To hell with both sides of the Syria civil war. If we’re going to let loose the arsenal, we should at least do it indiscriminately.

9) We are going higher.

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Why does one even take a vacation?

I took off Friday and Monday to have a nice long weekend. And when I returned, it looked like a file cabinet vomitted from a night of rough drinking, all over my desk. My inbox was overflowing so, crying like a tiny child, I began to make the effortful climb to the top.

The papers are now beginning to clear away, and I can start to see desktop again. Heaven help me if I take a real vacation this year.

The markets are docile and I am on my toes. I have a nice big cash position, but am refraining from becoming to bearish. There are things I see that frighten me, and have for months, but generally speaking I feel that I have a good strategy here. The positions I own should do well, even if the rest of the market should come on hard times. I just need to wade through any blood.

My personal positions have been in a miny sell off for about two weeks now, and my gains are down to the 19% mark, year to date.

Other than that, life is good and well worth living.

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The Mrs. and I threw a party this weekend, which occupied much of my energy and time. We decided to take it to a hall to give everyone a chance to dress up and leave the kids at home. The food was exquisite, with a European torte cake for dessert.

The Thaler household was on prominent display, and our cousins Reichsthaler, along with friends and family of my wife’s maiden Groschen surname. The Grosze’s, Zloty’s, Kopiyka’s, Groat’s, Bezant’s, and Dinar’s – all old families – were all in attendance.

The night lasted until the dancing could not continue from sore feet and a shortage of champagne and cocktails.

This morning, I find the markets simply too dull to take much store in. Year to date, my gains have given back to the +19% mark, as swift draw downs in BAS, AEC and CCJ create temporary illusions of losses. They will be re-earned quickly enough.

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I was curious what the actual gains from RGR were; it was just such a hot position. I knew it had to be at least 20%, because that’s about the difference from where the stock ended yesterday to where I bought at the $40 mark.

I actually pulled over 40% equivalent gains on the RGR position, if you were to treat it like a continuous position. Altogether, trading RGR added 7% to my account this year, with a position size that ranged from 0-15% depending on the day.

How’d that work out?

Well, mostly, I got real lucky on some purchases and sales.

I grabbed into the stock at $49 and then caught a big one time dividend announcement, selling out in the mid $50’s just before the divident record date. The stock fell into that day; and just a few weeks after that, that psychopath shot those kids.

I repurchased at $40, and then rode it up to $48. I bought back into the low $50’s, then sold most of those shares into the mid to high $50’s.

The stock dumped back into the $40’s, and from there I bought and sold most of the major moves lower, always for about 10% gains. The full list of buys and sells are detailed inside The PPT.

Cashing out yesterday, RGR was a solid set of moves this year that helped me hit new all time highs.

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As much fun as the occasional weekend pipe dream is, jam packed with physics and wacky ideas, from time to time, Monday brings with it a serious responibility to engage in actual thinking that produces real gains.

I see the weekday pipe dreamers are out and about now, writing mock up papers for major publications detailing how the hyperloop will create displacement by causing passengers to ride an acoustic wave, knocking my own crazy nonsense off the top. I suppose I’ll leave the making of unsubstantiated and ridiculous guessing to the professionals.

Back to things that actually matter; I’m watching RGR closely and have made the probably bad choice to hold through earnings. I am betting that gun ownership in this country will continue to expand at a higher pace that old normals, even after the initial fear buying craze has subsided. It’s difficult as RGR just announced some plant trouble, and background checks are down. Do not be surprised if RGR takes a spill lower. Whether or not I re-up my stake at that point will depend.

AEC is making to recover from the earnings miss. I am betting it will make new highs within the year.

BAS remains in a correction, and if my feeling for the stock is on, I’m betting that puts it around $11. Or rather, I’d buy around $11, if it can get there.

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