Stock advice in actual English.
Joined Sep 2, 2009
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Friday Afternoon Run Through Of Thoughts

It’s a Friday, and my heart isn’t in this right now. Rather, my imagination keeps running away outside to whatever’s left of Summer slipping away. This is most inopportune, since work is a runaway train.

So, here’s a brief list of things going through my mind right now.

1) War is overrated and oil is begging to get taken down a notch. Tell me when these geopolitical type scares have actually panned out? The last time was under what, Carter? The oil market is well supplied; a few oil traders are just gaming the system to make their year’s. Meanwhile, a US energy revolution is sweeping accross America.

2) Multifamily REITs selling off alongside broader REITs is as careless an act as I can think of. These companies are all 95% plus occupied with rising rates and numerous projects in the pipeline. Tell me who was forecasting that two years ago, other than myself and a handful of others? Yields are only a problem on a case by case basis. Sellers slamming the whole space here are irresponsible.

3) Coal prices and associated companies are unnecessarily low. Natural gas prices have come back nicely from the death throes they were convulsing in last year. The EPA can only do so much to legitimate, legal owners of coal producing assets. There’s this power grid we have that demands base load, after all. And even the most eco-friendly of Californian millionaires will not tolerate their precious Tesla batteries running dry. Even with natural gas transitioning taking place, there’s a price point where coal comes back online Everyone hates coal, making it pretty attractive right now.

4) I still fear for the wellbeing of Tesla longs, but I can only care so much. On a different note, there was a Seeking Alpha article about battery supply problems that made no sense. It was trying to argue that batteries will constrain Tesla production, but it pointed out that Tesla’s primary competitors are transitioning away from using the kinds of batteries that make up Tesla’s product. At most, I could see competition for batteries pushing up Tesla’s costs, keeping their vision of an affordable mainstream electric vehicle at bay (for longer than longs could survive, I might add). But at some point, Tesla forcing helping to force battery prices higher causes the electronics manufacturers to convert to the newer battery options, freeing up capacity. Besides 100,000 vehicles a year for Tesla isn’t exactly a plague of rats.

5) The natural gas and fracking boom will run further than any of you can possibly fathom. There is no reason not to buy into this. The go to corporations are the specialists who make the backbone of the extraction process (like BAS) and coporations or partnerships supplying the materials that make it all possible (I like HCLP). Risks that the frackers will saturate the market with so much gas and oil that it will collapse profits have blown over. Chesapeake energy was last year. Aubrey McClendon’s ass has been fired.

6) I’m not sure I can like this DRI position if prices for commodities keep pushing higher. But there was plenty of opportunity for the resturant business to line up cheap access to the raw foodstuffs they need for any number of months into the future. So I’m going to hope for the unexpected. Meanwhile, the job market is humming along. Now go eat at Red Lobster tonight.

7) The uranium market disgusts me. I knew it would blow out again. So far CCJ is taking the damage in stride. There’s a major fuel supply issue looming, but reactors just use up fuel so slowly, it takes forever for it all to wind its way through the system. It would be nice if the Japanese could get off their culturally slow-as-shit asses and maybe do something expediently for once in their lives. No, no, please, by all means continue to import oil and coal to your resource depleted island for sky high prices. Who needs an economy, especially with the egregious demographics problems of a nation like Japan?

8) I would rather lick an ant hill than let the sequal to the Catholic Church circa 12th century France come back to power – whether it’s crosses painted on the walls or crescents. To hell with both sides of the Syria civil war. If we’re going to let loose the arsenal, we should at least do it indiscriminately.

9) We are going higher.

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  1. TheHarper

    There is nothing I agree with more than #5 on your list of Friday ponderings. Long NES …forever.

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  2. goose

    Southeastern Ohio FTW

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  3. RNB

    Do your thoughts ever make you any money?

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