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Pared Down BAS

I had purchased additional shares of BAS in late July through early August, between $11.55 and $12.40. Those shares were up 30-40%, so I sold off half of them. The remainder is added to my permanent position.

I love the name, but having followed it for quite some time, it’s normal deviations are in the 20-30% range. I’m happy to see it breaking out to new highs, as that jives well with my own expectations. While buying the initial stake in BAS, I called for a price target of $18 at the time, and feel this company is well positioned to experience above average growth for the next 5-10 years.

However, back to the wild price swings, I don’t trust this stock at all. So taking a bit of money off the table makes sense. If I can’t buy back in lower, I still make a fat spread on a major position. But in all likelihood, the stock craters back to $14, and I load up all over again.

My current positions are CCJ, BAS, HCLP, AEC, MAA, NRP, RMCF, TSLA puts, and physical silver.

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HCLP Up Another 4% Today

Just felt you should know HCLP is continuing its run this morning…

Not much else happening though. Silver just took a second blow to the knee, and CCJ is circling the drain.

The CCJ melancholy is a three year recurring melodrama of such bad performance, I’d get up and leave my box if I didn’t own the theatre.

This is a part of the dance, which plays itself out over and over and over again.

Dispair at the state of nuclear power mixed with cowardly shareholders causes a thirty percent flush out, from which data releases eventually overcome and show to be unfounded, until optimism for a resolution of the nuclear energy concerns pushes us back to the top of the range from where the whole, trashy show can get started again.

Burlesque variety of performances have better plot lines than this…

The last round of CCJ earningst that were released showed that realized prices for CCJ’s uranium actually increased year over year, at the same time “market prices” plunged from $50 per lb to the $36 price they command today.

Until I see some data suggesting that Cameco is actually being affected by the doldrums of the rest of the nuclear energy sector, I have no reason to take any of this seriously.

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BOOM!

Earlier this week on Twitter, I was no less than accosted by a deranged individual for suggesting that I would very much like a surprise Bernanke additional term. This man has dedicated himself to the proposition that we are on the verge of a near total collapse of stocks, insulting the “dip buyers” for their “stupidity”.

Amusingly, his handle was a Sesame Street character dead on the sidewalk, shot in the head.

This is fitting, as this clown has just had his skull split wide open. This is what you get for being a jackass.

How can there possibly be shorts left alive anywhere? Where are you hiding, or what pathetically small positions have you taken on that you can still get off calling yourself “short”?

The status quo has prevailed again. This charade went a little further than I thought, but it was still just a charade.

My only hesitation here is that the implementation of ACA may shock a weak recovery. I will hold a 20% cash position at all times, because of this reality. But make no mistake, I am long. Christmas is almost upon us, and Janet Yellen is a printing psychopath.

Now if you can excuse me, I have an obsene amount of money to make.

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Holding Steady

I have a smaller cash position than the 50% I was holding this summer. My current cash level stand around 20%, with purchases of HCLP, NRP, DRI, RMCF, SCO and a handful of dips in my current assets eating up the 30% cash position.

I sold EUO weeks ago.

I’m not sure if I chose exactly the moment to lever up into the firestorm but I’d say we’re about to find out.

What I do believe, though, is that feminism has seized Ben Bernanke’s chair, and Janet Yellen can smoke blunts with the best of them.

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Breaking Away

CCJ is up 4.93%

SCO is up 3.59%

BAS is up 1.89%

And nothing seems to be letting up here.

It’s time to make my year. Keep your bellyaching whines to yourself. I have a legacy to cement.

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What Part Of “I’m Using Puts” Isn’t Sinking In With You?

The next person to offhandedly quote Keynes to me, explaining why my Tesla short is doomed for failure, gets boxed in the scrotum, then lit on fire. The 9th floor is declaring taboo any and all “mainstream” financial references. If you heard it in high school, that trash is not welcome here.

I wouldn’t care if it were even remotely applicable to what I am doing.

But it isn’t.

Do you understand what a put option is? It’s a contract, that costs a finite amount of money to establish up front. Its value is derived either absolutely through execution, or else by pawning it off prematurely to startled counter-parties who are sweating profusely at the thought of massive losses, for a fat premium of course.

Do you know what never comes up as a concern, remotely, when you have 2-3% of your account in a non-margin put position?

Solvency.

It’s crazy, but not fucking once lately have I worried, “OH MY GAWD, THE MARKET CAN STAY IRRATIONAL LONGER THAN I CAN STAY SOLVENT”.

Do you know why?

Because I’m fucking solvent.

These products have been cut in half since I bought them. I am solvent.

These products can go to absolute zero for all I care. I am solvent.

I am solvent because I’m not a complete dumb ass, and know how to take a negative view of something in a way that only has massive payoffs. I’m solvent because I understand how to set aside 1-2% of my account annum (less than I make in dividends) to buying something that has well defined losses attached.

I don’t need to know what will happen to Tesla to make it sell off. That is an adminicular point. I just need to believe that something none of us here can possibly expect will occur to shock people. It then requires only modest stipulation that, at current positioning, that something is more likely to be really bad than really good.

If my January 2014’s expire worthless (of which there is a strong possibility), then I will put another 1-2% of my account into January 2016 puts (I currently hold January 2014’s and January 2015’s).

Do you know what my upper bound is on losses?

6.1%, spread out over three and a half years.

Do you know what I will lose, in real terms, if I am wrong about Tesla?

Probably <6.1% in losses, spread out over three and a half years.

Do you know what I don't care about?

6.1% of losses, spread out over three and a half years.

I'm up ~20% this year alone. The amount of money we're talking here, 1-2% of my account annually, is just so de minimis…

Please, stop slaughtering economic quotes by using them out of context. It may shock you, but I actually am quite familiar with Keynesian-isms. That happens when you've followed the markets and finance for a long time. And frankly, if you can pick up a bit of financial advice out of a copy of the Rolling Stones, it probably isn't worth anything.

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