Down 2.7% So Far

Wow…

There is just no avoiding a hit like today. In terms of pulling it together, we just need to hope there’s a bounce near term to organize. Make no mistake that following action like we’ve had the past week, there’s not going to be an immediate turnaround. We’ve done some damage and people are hurting.

My guess is we get a bounce here shortly, and that gets faded hard and fast. I made a round of purchases in HCLP today, taking my cash balance down a few percent. Honestly, I almost regret even that (although that’s what the most profitable trades usually feel like).

Keep your eye pegged on the EURUSD. That’s the tell here.

One Lucky SOB

I have been a major recipient of serendipitous timing over the past several weeks. What has happened simply cannot be attributed to skill.

In early August my portfolio was 100% long HCLP, CCJ, BAS, ETP, MAA, AEC, NRP, and BTU. But things felt wrong so I persuaded myself, based mostly on the opinion of others, that I should raise cash into September.

Where major luck comes into play is how I raised that cash. HCLP, BAS and CCJ were all >20% sized positions. I clipped HCLP, and sold BAS and CCJ down hard to around or under 10%. This was all mostly at the highs.

But where the fortunes get greater comes next. I really wanted more cash, but I couldn’t bring myself to trim those three any more. So instead, I made some tough choices and discarded both NRP and MAA. Plus, everything that was left was sent to the 5% mark.

Almost everything I have has taken a severe beating. This, coupled with the EURUSD, leave me convinced that the worst is yet to come. But I’ve mostly held out intact.

BAS and HCLP have pulled back very hard, but I’m up so much and scaled them down so intensely, I actually added to BAS around $24 because I could afford to. Elsewhere, BTU, MAA and NRP have all felt the worst of it, but my exposure to them is almost gone. As far as the multifamily sector is concerned, AEC as the one position I retained has held up pretty well. Physical silver is the only place I didn’t manage to find a silver lining (…).

And ETP has actually risen. That was maybe my only error this past month, was selling that down to 5%. I turned around and bought it back up to a 10% position last week. It’s shrugged off economic weakness, because the company is awesome.

Sometimes, you just get lucky. This year has held that theme for me.

Some Of You Get Away With A Lot

On a day when the NASDAQ was down more than 1% into the close, the S&P and DOW were barely treading water, and I personally had three positions that sank more than 2%, you would think it would be pretty clear cut that today was decidedly “not bullish”.

But you would be mistaken, as I counted off numerous Twitter beings preaching the mighty “bullish day” we had. Did you, perchance, see that awesome rally the DOW had? What with all the bouncing I had to hear about today, you may have completely missed the HORRIFIC SLAUGHTER occurring more or less everywhere.

Please rest assured that in spite of the glorious bull market we had today, the man being murdered behind the shed was still very much stabbed to death. But by all means, get about to fretting over the first degree butchery at your convenience.

Go check out the Fly’s blog, where he has conveniently posted the black list of the mutilation.

On the one hand, today’s action only set us back to early August.

I guess the other hand is that we are not done going lower yet…

The Correction Has Already Begun

It would be unwise to ignore what is obviously the start of a selloff, just because the indices have mostly held up. We are beginning the correction, led by the same sector that took us higher since last August.

I am of course talking about the natural gas and oil sector. Names like BAS, HCLP, SLCA, ETP, and EMES were one of the three pillars of support of the rally. Today, BAS is off 7% and HCLP is down 5%. The entire oil and gas sector is being beaten down.

But it’s more than just that. It’s all commodities indiscriminately. Energy, food, precious metals, raw materials…with a few weak exceptions, they’re all in a clear tailspin.

And the EURUSD is back at 1.29. That’s the key element driving it all. This is 2010 all over again. Except for the moment, people seem willing to pretend that deflation isn’t winning.

Buckle up for a rough September.

The Melt Up Is Upon Us

There is no limit to the benevolence of my portfolio today. HCLP spurred out the gate and is now closing in on $70, +5.4% in the first half of today’s trading.

CCJ and BAS are second runners up. Most everything else is green, with only new half position PSEC and NRP breaking the pattern at the moment.

No one wants to hold short into the Labor Day weekend. Bears have been conditioned over the past five years that long weekends deal death to misers.

My account is up +2.3% today. I’m tempted to take a few sales at lunch, just to prepare for September (the biggest dick of all the months).

The world is my tainted oyster (which is only an odd statement if you knew that I don’t like oysters). Now, as you were.

Churning Nowhere

The 9th Floor has been quiet for a week. The lights were dim and inside, you espied flickering shadows cast from the hearth, fluttering across the drawn blinds. In the dim pale pressing into the night, you could make out…was it a figure?

For I was here all along. Watching you. Plotting…

By day, my machinations held my focus; secret efforts springing forth to physical being. The drawing of my pipe casting smoldering red over the papers scattered at my fingertips. The ash that chanced on the work below my only distraction.

A rare glance up from the work table showed me that my positions in the market were going nowhere cumulatively, though individually they are all over the map. Churn and chum would be a description for it. My high flyers pulled back. My losers and lollygaggers advanced.

And nothing happened.

My focus returned quickly from that sight, back to work.

Down 2.7% So Far

Wow…

There is just no avoiding a hit like today. In terms of pulling it together, we just need to hope there’s a bounce near term to organize. Make no mistake that following action like we’ve had the past week, there’s not going to be an immediate turnaround. We’ve done some damage and people are hurting.

My guess is we get a bounce here shortly, and that gets faded hard and fast. I made a round of purchases in HCLP today, taking my cash balance down a few percent. Honestly, I almost regret even that (although that’s what the most profitable trades usually feel like).

Keep your eye pegged on the EURUSD. That’s the tell here.

One Lucky SOB

I have been a major recipient of serendipitous timing over the past several weeks. What has happened simply cannot be attributed to skill.

In early August my portfolio was 100% long HCLP, CCJ, BAS, ETP, MAA, AEC, NRP, and BTU. But things felt wrong so I persuaded myself, based mostly on the opinion of others, that I should raise cash into September.

Where major luck comes into play is how I raised that cash. HCLP, BAS and CCJ were all >20% sized positions. I clipped HCLP, and sold BAS and CCJ down hard to around or under 10%. This was all mostly at the highs.

But where the fortunes get greater comes next. I really wanted more cash, but I couldn’t bring myself to trim those three any more. So instead, I made some tough choices and discarded both NRP and MAA. Plus, everything that was left was sent to the 5% mark.

Almost everything I have has taken a severe beating. This, coupled with the EURUSD, leave me convinced that the worst is yet to come. But I’ve mostly held out intact.

BAS and HCLP have pulled back very hard, but I’m up so much and scaled them down so intensely, I actually added to BAS around $24 because I could afford to. Elsewhere, BTU, MAA and NRP have all felt the worst of it, but my exposure to them is almost gone. As far as the multifamily sector is concerned, AEC as the one position I retained has held up pretty well. Physical silver is the only place I didn’t manage to find a silver lining (…).

And ETP has actually risen. That was maybe my only error this past month, was selling that down to 5%. I turned around and bought it back up to a 10% position last week. It’s shrugged off economic weakness, because the company is awesome.

Sometimes, you just get lucky. This year has held that theme for me.

Some Of You Get Away With A Lot

On a day when the NASDAQ was down more than 1% into the close, the S&P and DOW were barely treading water, and I personally had three positions that sank more than 2%, you would think it would be pretty clear cut that today was decidedly “not bullish”.

But you would be mistaken, as I counted off numerous Twitter beings preaching the mighty “bullish day” we had. Did you, perchance, see that awesome rally the DOW had? What with all the bouncing I had to hear about today, you may have completely missed the HORRIFIC SLAUGHTER occurring more or less everywhere.

Please rest assured that in spite of the glorious bull market we had today, the man being murdered behind the shed was still very much stabbed to death. But by all means, get about to fretting over the first degree butchery at your convenience.

Go check out the Fly’s blog, where he has conveniently posted the black list of the mutilation.

On the one hand, today’s action only set us back to early August.

I guess the other hand is that we are not done going lower yet…

The Correction Has Already Begun

It would be unwise to ignore what is obviously the start of a selloff, just because the indices have mostly held up. We are beginning the correction, led by the same sector that took us higher since last August.

I am of course talking about the natural gas and oil sector. Names like BAS, HCLP, SLCA, ETP, and EMES were one of the three pillars of support of the rally. Today, BAS is off 7% and HCLP is down 5%. The entire oil and gas sector is being beaten down.

But it’s more than just that. It’s all commodities indiscriminately. Energy, food, precious metals, raw materials…with a few weak exceptions, they’re all in a clear tailspin.

And the EURUSD is back at 1.29. That’s the key element driving it all. This is 2010 all over again. Except for the moment, people seem willing to pretend that deflation isn’t winning.

Buckle up for a rough September.

The Melt Up Is Upon Us

There is no limit to the benevolence of my portfolio today. HCLP spurred out the gate and is now closing in on $70, +5.4% in the first half of today’s trading.

CCJ and BAS are second runners up. Most everything else is green, with only new half position PSEC and NRP breaking the pattern at the moment.

No one wants to hold short into the Labor Day weekend. Bears have been conditioned over the past five years that long weekends deal death to misers.

My account is up +2.3% today. I’m tempted to take a few sales at lunch, just to prepare for September (the biggest dick of all the months).

The world is my tainted oyster (which is only an odd statement if you knew that I don’t like oysters). Now, as you were.

Churning Nowhere

The 9th Floor has been quiet for a week. The lights were dim and inside, you espied flickering shadows cast from the hearth, fluttering across the drawn blinds. In the dim pale pressing into the night, you could make out…was it a figure?

For I was here all along. Watching you. Plotting…

By day, my machinations held my focus; secret efforts springing forth to physical being. The drawing of my pipe casting smoldering red over the papers scattered at my fingertips. The ash that chanced on the work below my only distraction.

A rare glance up from the work table showed me that my positions in the market were going nowhere cumulatively, though individually they are all over the map. Churn and chum would be a description for it. My high flyers pulled back. My losers and lollygaggers advanced.

And nothing happened.

My focus returned quickly from that sight, back to work.

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