Made Some Sales Of NADL

I sold off some of my NADL position for $5.96. I had added these shares on 10/15 for $5.43. This locks in a quick 9.8% gain on a small position sizing. It brings my cash position to 5%.

I’m sitting pretty here. So far, I dodged sizable losses by going to 45% cash in August. I also bought what looks like it could be the bottom in the oil and gas space, on margin to 115% of my account. I’ve since sold this bounce down to a 95% long position.

Plenty of my recent purchases are underwater, but I have a healthy profit margin baked into many of them as a whole. I also am closing back in on 10% gains for the year again with lots of room from the highs.

My expectation remains for more volatility and a small pullback ahead. I wouldn’t be surprised if this gets labeled a stock market crash after everything – that fits well with the frequency of market crashes in the US (albeit resting on a small data sample).

As for the oil and gas sector (of which I have a majority of my assets invested at this time) I think we’re near the end of the correction with perhaps room for one last shakeout.

If we crash lower, I will consider adding on margin again. But it will be a slow decision given I am basically fully invested.

All Of The Oil Losses Shall Be Regained

It will not happen immediately, surely. There will be more volatility and panic. But rest assured that the rout in the oil market will be unmade soon enough.

HCLP is already back to $54. You could have purchased shares for $40 just last week. The markets were scared, but then HCLP announced a 9% hike to its dividend. Now all is forgiven.

BAS is back to $15 from $11.50 last week.

ETP is above $65 again.

NADL is flirting with $6.

VOC has regained $11.

Those are big comebacks. I told you, the scare was not about a looming slowdown in the oil and gas space. It was more about frightening you into loosening your grip on the precious. Now that Jimmy’s friends have loaded up the trucks, we’re free to stop pretending like that Saudi Arabia rumor was ever anything more than the flapdoodle it was.

For the day I’m already up another 2%.

I’m Up 6.6% For The Day (And Counting)

Yeah, like I said, there really wasn’t any reason to be selling those oil stocks.

You were had, son.

HCLP +11.2%
BAS + 7.3%
VOC + 5.5%
BTU + 5.0%
SXCP + 4.5%
ETP + 4.0%
NADL + 2.0%

Nibbled On More BAS For $13.50

I am now down almost 2% for the year. I took a moment to celebrate this lunacy by nibbling on yet more BAS, for $13.50.

All thanks and praise to the mighty Saudi’s for the wondrous occasion…

No, really though, who do you think Saudi Arabia’s super speculative intentions are going to hurt more? The United States? Or Venezuela, Syria, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Brazil, Nigeria, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, or Yemen?

Cool story: if you’re a country even close to revolutionary upheaval (or just strangled by an ill thought out safety net), the actions of Saudi Arabia are a death knell. And if there’s one thing we’ve seen pretty conclusively, it’s that countries that get tipped into a state of open revolution or political upheaval see their oil production drop…sometimes all the way to ZERO.

So let’s play chicken, you little shits.

A Lone Bright Spot

Somehow, in the midst of all that is terrifying and sad in today’s stock market, ETP is a singular beacon of hope. I don’t understand how, but ETP is still making new highs.

They are a terminal company for energy products, so lower oil prices helps them. But if we were really on the precipice of something horrific, don’t you think demand concerns would hit them also?

Or perhaps ETP is just that needle in the proverbial haystack?

I am going to go out on a limb and say we are not about to experience another major meltdown of the magnitude of 2008/09. I believe the Federal Reserve is currently “all in”. They could not tolerate such a decline as it would undermine their entire authority as central bank. The Keynesian line simply cannot lose on such a big test of their expertise. It would be the end of them.

So in that respect, I believe financial markets would continue to have a permanent bid under them. If commodity prices are allowed to get too low, government tax receipts would fall and debt burdens would become untenable. It’s not enough to have a recovery; people have committed to a recovery where more dollars trade hands for goods and services, not fewer. It’s a completely arbitrary distinction, but important now nonetheless.

Besides, when I look through the operations of many of these energy names getting dismantled…they’re fine. I don’t see huge slowdowns materializing or cash problems or even demand problems. Unless this is still winding its way down from the manufacturing and consumer sectors and hasn’t appeared yet in the actual energy names?

It’s possible but I’m putting my chips on the table. I think this blows over. We will probably have a nasty correction, because of bad bets in market valuations. But by and large I think we just stumble through this and work our way back to new highs.

What has surprised me is that I can still find positions I want to buy. It’s not like I’m going out there and coming up empty handed. There are still plenty of good companies reasonably priced. You just need to filter the high flying tech and low yield financial product crap off your screen to find it.

Down 2.7% So Far

Wow…

There is just no avoiding a hit like today. In terms of pulling it together, we just need to hope there’s a bounce near term to organize. Make no mistake that following action like we’ve had the past week, there’s not going to be an immediate turnaround. We’ve done some damage and people are hurting.

My guess is we get a bounce here shortly, and that gets faded hard and fast. I made a round of purchases in HCLP today, taking my cash balance down a few percent. Honestly, I almost regret even that (although that’s what the most profitable trades usually feel like).

Keep your eye pegged on the EURUSD. That’s the tell here.

Made Some Sales Of NADL

I sold off some of my NADL position for $5.96. I had added these shares on 10/15 for $5.43. This locks in a quick 9.8% gain on a small position sizing. It brings my cash position to 5%.

I’m sitting pretty here. So far, I dodged sizable losses by going to 45% cash in August. I also bought what looks like it could be the bottom in the oil and gas space, on margin to 115% of my account. I’ve since sold this bounce down to a 95% long position.

Plenty of my recent purchases are underwater, but I have a healthy profit margin baked into many of them as a whole. I also am closing back in on 10% gains for the year again with lots of room from the highs.

My expectation remains for more volatility and a small pullback ahead. I wouldn’t be surprised if this gets labeled a stock market crash after everything – that fits well with the frequency of market crashes in the US (albeit resting on a small data sample).

As for the oil and gas sector (of which I have a majority of my assets invested at this time) I think we’re near the end of the correction with perhaps room for one last shakeout.

If we crash lower, I will consider adding on margin again. But it will be a slow decision given I am basically fully invested.

All Of The Oil Losses Shall Be Regained

It will not happen immediately, surely. There will be more volatility and panic. But rest assured that the rout in the oil market will be unmade soon enough.

HCLP is already back to $54. You could have purchased shares for $40 just last week. The markets were scared, but then HCLP announced a 9% hike to its dividend. Now all is forgiven.

BAS is back to $15 from $11.50 last week.

ETP is above $65 again.

NADL is flirting with $6.

VOC has regained $11.

Those are big comebacks. I told you, the scare was not about a looming slowdown in the oil and gas space. It was more about frightening you into loosening your grip on the precious. Now that Jimmy’s friends have loaded up the trucks, we’re free to stop pretending like that Saudi Arabia rumor was ever anything more than the flapdoodle it was.

For the day I’m already up another 2%.

I’m Up 6.6% For The Day (And Counting)

Yeah, like I said, there really wasn’t any reason to be selling those oil stocks.

You were had, son.

HCLP +11.2%
BAS + 7.3%
VOC + 5.5%
BTU + 5.0%
SXCP + 4.5%
ETP + 4.0%
NADL + 2.0%

Nibbled On More BAS For $13.50

I am now down almost 2% for the year. I took a moment to celebrate this lunacy by nibbling on yet more BAS, for $13.50.

All thanks and praise to the mighty Saudi’s for the wondrous occasion…

No, really though, who do you think Saudi Arabia’s super speculative intentions are going to hurt more? The United States? Or Venezuela, Syria, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Brazil, Nigeria, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, or Yemen?

Cool story: if you’re a country even close to revolutionary upheaval (or just strangled by an ill thought out safety net), the actions of Saudi Arabia are a death knell. And if there’s one thing we’ve seen pretty conclusively, it’s that countries that get tipped into a state of open revolution or political upheaval see their oil production drop…sometimes all the way to ZERO.

So let’s play chicken, you little shits.

A Lone Bright Spot

Somehow, in the midst of all that is terrifying and sad in today’s stock market, ETP is a singular beacon of hope. I don’t understand how, but ETP is still making new highs.

They are a terminal company for energy products, so lower oil prices helps them. But if we were really on the precipice of something horrific, don’t you think demand concerns would hit them also?

Or perhaps ETP is just that needle in the proverbial haystack?

I am going to go out on a limb and say we are not about to experience another major meltdown of the magnitude of 2008/09. I believe the Federal Reserve is currently “all in”. They could not tolerate such a decline as it would undermine their entire authority as central bank. The Keynesian line simply cannot lose on such a big test of their expertise. It would be the end of them.

So in that respect, I believe financial markets would continue to have a permanent bid under them. If commodity prices are allowed to get too low, government tax receipts would fall and debt burdens would become untenable. It’s not enough to have a recovery; people have committed to a recovery where more dollars trade hands for goods and services, not fewer. It’s a completely arbitrary distinction, but important now nonetheless.

Besides, when I look through the operations of many of these energy names getting dismantled…they’re fine. I don’t see huge slowdowns materializing or cash problems or even demand problems. Unless this is still winding its way down from the manufacturing and consumer sectors and hasn’t appeared yet in the actual energy names?

It’s possible but I’m putting my chips on the table. I think this blows over. We will probably have a nasty correction, because of bad bets in market valuations. But by and large I think we just stumble through this and work our way back to new highs.

What has surprised me is that I can still find positions I want to buy. It’s not like I’m going out there and coming up empty handed. There are still plenty of good companies reasonably priced. You just need to filter the high flying tech and low yield financial product crap off your screen to find it.

Down 2.7% So Far

Wow…

There is just no avoiding a hit like today. In terms of pulling it together, we just need to hope there’s a bounce near term to organize. Make no mistake that following action like we’ve had the past week, there’s not going to be an immediate turnaround. We’ve done some damage and people are hurting.

My guess is we get a bounce here shortly, and that gets faded hard and fast. I made a round of purchases in HCLP today, taking my cash balance down a few percent. Honestly, I almost regret even that (although that’s what the most profitable trades usually feel like).

Keep your eye pegged on the EURUSD. That’s the tell here.

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