Some Of You Get Away With A Lot

On a day when the NASDAQ was down more than 1% into the close, the S&P and DOW were barely treading water, and I personally had three positions that sank more than 2%, you would think it would be pretty clear cut that today was decidedly “not bullish”.

But you would be mistaken, as I counted off numerous Twitter beings preaching the mighty “bullish day” we had. Did you, perchance, see that awesome rally the DOW had? What with all the bouncing I had to hear about today, you may have completely missed the HORRIFIC SLAUGHTER occurring more or less everywhere.

Please rest assured that in spite of the glorious bull market we had today, the man being murdered behind the shed was still very much stabbed to death. But by all means, get about to fretting over the first degree butchery at your convenience.

Go check out the Fly’s blog, where he has conveniently posted the black list of the mutilation.

On the one hand, today’s action only set us back to early August.

I guess the other hand is that we are not done going lower yet…

The Correction Has Already Begun

It would be unwise to ignore what is obviously the start of a selloff, just because the indices have mostly held up. We are beginning the correction, led by the same sector that took us higher since last August.

I am of course talking about the natural gas and oil sector. Names like BAS, HCLP, SLCA, ETP, and EMES were one of the three pillars of support of the rally. Today, BAS is off 7% and HCLP is down 5%. The entire oil and gas sector is being beaten down.

But it’s more than just that. It’s all commodities indiscriminately. Energy, food, precious metals, raw materials…with a few weak exceptions, they’re all in a clear tailspin.

And the EURUSD is back at 1.29. That’s the key element driving it all. This is 2010 all over again. Except for the moment, people seem willing to pretend that deflation isn’t winning.

Buckle up for a rough September.

The Melt Up Is Upon Us

There is no limit to the benevolence of my portfolio today. HCLP spurred out the gate and is now closing in on $70, +5.4% in the first half of today’s trading.

CCJ and BAS are second runners up. Most everything else is green, with only new half position PSEC and NRP breaking the pattern at the moment.

No one wants to hold short into the Labor Day weekend. Bears have been conditioned over the past five years that long weekends deal death to misers.

My account is up +2.3% today. I’m tempted to take a few sales at lunch, just to prepare for September (the biggest dick of all the months).

The world is my tainted oyster (which is only an odd statement if you knew that I don’t like oysters). Now, as you were.

Churning Nowhere

The 9th Floor has been quiet for a week. The lights were dim and inside, you espied flickering shadows cast from the hearth, fluttering across the drawn blinds. In the dim pale pressing into the night, you could make out…was it a figure?

For I was here all along. Watching you. Plotting…

By day, my machinations held my focus; secret efforts springing forth to physical being. The drawing of my pipe casting smoldering red over the papers scattered at my fingertips. The ash that chanced on the work below my only distraction.

A rare glance up from the work table showed me that my positions in the market were going nowhere cumulatively, though individually they are all over the map. Churn and chum would be a description for it. My high flyers pulled back. My losers and lollygaggers advanced.

And nothing happened.

My focus returned quickly from that sight, back to work.

I’m A Seller Into This Rally

The market is running and I have made much profit. My gains this year stand respectably north of 15% with the summer closing behind us.

HCLP is back to announcing omnipotent re-pricing and supply extensions. Natural gas continues to see robust expansion to the glory of BAS and ETP. CCJ defies the uranium market. AEC and MAA are riding a multifamily wave that almost no housing analysts foresaw. And the coal market is stealthily shoring up BUT and NRP, with fundamentals that will catch the mainstream opinion off guard. Even the silver market has held onto some pittance of gains this year.

To be sure, the past 18 months have been a glorious time to be alive.

But that will all end soon enough.

It is not just any specific prophesy of doom I’m latching onto here. For the most part, we’ve seen the ability of markets to price out specific events. But I have gone back through every stock market crash since the establishment of the Federal Reserve, and what I have seen (albeit with what little data is available) is a left skewed distribution of such frequency that makes me think the chances of our current state of affairs casually drifting past the 7 year mark without recidivism are…poor.

So I will raise cash going into Fall (as I have several times in the past). And knowing that if I am wrong, there will be plenty of time to make yet more money.

Friday’s Purchases Working Hard Today

The buys of CCJ, HCLP and BAS I made before leaving for the weekend are all working today, up markedly.

Everything else I have is also pacing, as we reached oversold levels last week that warranted a strong bounce.

I’ll give you a small hint: I’m personally terrible at these short term inflection points. My style is very much long term allocation to the right place at no particular time. It works; sure I have no complaints on my own performance.

But even though I have no personal trading skills, I’ve still made a killing trading the past few years. How, you ask yourselves?

Why with the help of The PPT, of course.

The quality work of The PPT has enabled focused investors like myself to become well rounded performers. Where before I would have been limited to strictly my own strategies, I can now diversify my tactics to a trading pattern around those strategies, multiplying my profit potential.

It is a community where each of us outsources our strengths to one another. And it is high time you get off the fence and add a subscription.

Some Of You Get Away With A Lot

On a day when the NASDAQ was down more than 1% into the close, the S&P and DOW were barely treading water, and I personally had three positions that sank more than 2%, you would think it would be pretty clear cut that today was decidedly “not bullish”.

But you would be mistaken, as I counted off numerous Twitter beings preaching the mighty “bullish day” we had. Did you, perchance, see that awesome rally the DOW had? What with all the bouncing I had to hear about today, you may have completely missed the HORRIFIC SLAUGHTER occurring more or less everywhere.

Please rest assured that in spite of the glorious bull market we had today, the man being murdered behind the shed was still very much stabbed to death. But by all means, get about to fretting over the first degree butchery at your convenience.

Go check out the Fly’s blog, where he has conveniently posted the black list of the mutilation.

On the one hand, today’s action only set us back to early August.

I guess the other hand is that we are not done going lower yet…

The Correction Has Already Begun

It would be unwise to ignore what is obviously the start of a selloff, just because the indices have mostly held up. We are beginning the correction, led by the same sector that took us higher since last August.

I am of course talking about the natural gas and oil sector. Names like BAS, HCLP, SLCA, ETP, and EMES were one of the three pillars of support of the rally. Today, BAS is off 7% and HCLP is down 5%. The entire oil and gas sector is being beaten down.

But it’s more than just that. It’s all commodities indiscriminately. Energy, food, precious metals, raw materials…with a few weak exceptions, they’re all in a clear tailspin.

And the EURUSD is back at 1.29. That’s the key element driving it all. This is 2010 all over again. Except for the moment, people seem willing to pretend that deflation isn’t winning.

Buckle up for a rough September.

The Melt Up Is Upon Us

There is no limit to the benevolence of my portfolio today. HCLP spurred out the gate and is now closing in on $70, +5.4% in the first half of today’s trading.

CCJ and BAS are second runners up. Most everything else is green, with only new half position PSEC and NRP breaking the pattern at the moment.

No one wants to hold short into the Labor Day weekend. Bears have been conditioned over the past five years that long weekends deal death to misers.

My account is up +2.3% today. I’m tempted to take a few sales at lunch, just to prepare for September (the biggest dick of all the months).

The world is my tainted oyster (which is only an odd statement if you knew that I don’t like oysters). Now, as you were.

Churning Nowhere

The 9th Floor has been quiet for a week. The lights were dim and inside, you espied flickering shadows cast from the hearth, fluttering across the drawn blinds. In the dim pale pressing into the night, you could make out…was it a figure?

For I was here all along. Watching you. Plotting…

By day, my machinations held my focus; secret efforts springing forth to physical being. The drawing of my pipe casting smoldering red over the papers scattered at my fingertips. The ash that chanced on the work below my only distraction.

A rare glance up from the work table showed me that my positions in the market were going nowhere cumulatively, though individually they are all over the map. Churn and chum would be a description for it. My high flyers pulled back. My losers and lollygaggers advanced.

And nothing happened.

My focus returned quickly from that sight, back to work.

I’m A Seller Into This Rally

The market is running and I have made much profit. My gains this year stand respectably north of 15% with the summer closing behind us.

HCLP is back to announcing omnipotent re-pricing and supply extensions. Natural gas continues to see robust expansion to the glory of BAS and ETP. CCJ defies the uranium market. AEC and MAA are riding a multifamily wave that almost no housing analysts foresaw. And the coal market is stealthily shoring up BUT and NRP, with fundamentals that will catch the mainstream opinion off guard. Even the silver market has held onto some pittance of gains this year.

To be sure, the past 18 months have been a glorious time to be alive.

But that will all end soon enough.

It is not just any specific prophesy of doom I’m latching onto here. For the most part, we’ve seen the ability of markets to price out specific events. But I have gone back through every stock market crash since the establishment of the Federal Reserve, and what I have seen (albeit with what little data is available) is a left skewed distribution of such frequency that makes me think the chances of our current state of affairs casually drifting past the 7 year mark without recidivism are…poor.

So I will raise cash going into Fall (as I have several times in the past). And knowing that if I am wrong, there will be plenty of time to make yet more money.

Friday’s Purchases Working Hard Today

The buys of CCJ, HCLP and BAS I made before leaving for the weekend are all working today, up markedly.

Everything else I have is also pacing, as we reached oversold levels last week that warranted a strong bounce.

I’ll give you a small hint: I’m personally terrible at these short term inflection points. My style is very much long term allocation to the right place at no particular time. It works; sure I have no complaints on my own performance.

But even though I have no personal trading skills, I’ve still made a killing trading the past few years. How, you ask yourselves?

Why with the help of The PPT, of course.

The quality work of The PPT has enabled focused investors like myself to become well rounded performers. Where before I would have been limited to strictly my own strategies, I can now diversify my tactics to a trading pattern around those strategies, multiplying my profit potential.

It is a community where each of us outsources our strengths to one another. And it is high time you get off the fence and add a subscription.

Previous Posts by Mr. Cain Thaler