Continuing with last year’s theme of being defecated on by blue collar retirees willing to buy at any price, oil is continuing its march higher, spurred on by Iran being the asshole of civilization and some better than expected manufacturing data from the ISM.
What is being tactfully omitted from this discussion is the manufacturing data that came out of Europe, sometimes referred to by its more proper name of THE BIGGEST COMBINED ECONOMY IN THE WORLD. That data, actually, was better than expected also. And by better than expected I mean that the Eurozone manufacturing only contracted by more than 3%, across all countries.
Austerity is doing its damage in Europe, and there is little to no hope that those countries avoid a recession. Yet the U.S. gets to pay (what is it now?) $102 for a barrel of oil?
Some countries in Europe have seen anywhere for 10-20% of their manufacturing go offline. The U.S. manufacturing has hummed along, barely, and the GREAT CHINA GROWTH STORY is getting nailed every day. Yet, still, you insist on buying crude oil.
I admit I’m about at the end of my rope with this trade. For the day, although SCO and ERY are each drowning by more than 7%, I am actually barely down at all. I have very large 3-4% rallies in AEC, CLP, CCJ, BG and a massive rally in silver that are overcompensating.
But if you continue to buy oil, eventually I will acquiesce and close out the oil and energy shorts. But when that happens, I’m also going to cash and shutting down the account.
Because nothing good can happen from a continent going into recession. No good can come from 50% devaluations of one of the world’s major currencies either.
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if oil is going up why not buy the shit until it stops going up?
Why not do that with anything? Or everything?
Crude oil was higher in 2011 while arguably all other commodities were lower; while manufacturing in most of the free world took a hit; and while global demand was pressed under the boot of austerity.
If oil corrects downward, how much time do you think you’ll have to get out? A day? Remember you have to beat the crowd of fund managers who managed to save their backsides in 2011 by bidding up oil to the door.
There’s not going to be a warning, and a nice calm trend lower. There’s going to be one giant red bar over three days that sends oil back into the low $80’s.
boom
Okay, I added a smidge to SCO for $36.03.
Will you people reach between your legs, pull out your balls, and remember that Iran is a joke of a country.
Oh my God, I think Uruguay is going to threaten us next. Yep, it’s the end of U.S. military superiority over here…for sure…
CT. I know you will be right about oil but it may take your head off first. Did you see that for the first time in many years domestic oil production rose in the US. When oil breaks down it will look like the fall in gold.