DON’T GET HOOKED

I bought some OSTK — thinking Bitcoin rally will continue over weekend. I’m holding shorts too. Aside from my TZA and OLED purchase, I sold SECO. It was a crazy fucking day and if I had to wager, I’d say maximum pain in both directions next week. The chop is really fucking annoying.

Sure, if you’re not trading like a crack head, you can scoff at those putting their balls on the line with quick trades. I used to do that too — last year when I was mainly using systematic trades. But now I’m trading and do so actively and I know I am damn good at it — because my account balances say so.

If I had one wish, it’d be for a broken elevator close into fear.

This is what I listen to during meditation time at House Fly. CANCEL ALL ORDERS, when the talking cigarette told you not to get hooked. pic.twitter.com/q3UCemRu5g

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 8, 2018

With 1 hour left, it should be fun.

How am I supposed to get my bearshit persona going when I can’t even go for a cup of coffee without seeing the entire calamity washed away with this fictitious renewed optimism?

There I was, relishing the idea of being an Orc short stocks and BAM — fucking elves beat me the fuck down and took my ears off.

Everything just changed inside of a few short minutes. We went from harrowing losses to full on cocaine charge higher. Shorts are gonna get their dicks cut off into the bell now.

I’ll hold my inverse ETFs, more of a penance if anything else. I did buy OLED earlier, so that’ll participate. And, bear in mind, my entire Quant account, which is 70% of my assets, are held long — with a 20% cash position.

Not trying to have it both ways here — faggots, just stating facts.

The bear market has ended.

Go in peace.

UPDATE: Exodus registered oversold here, intra-day.

Grandma and her McDonald’s will soon be eliminated from the field of battle. Passive investors, inexorably, beat down and vanquished. A new era, one beset by spiraling debts and interest rates will beckon a period of extreme uncertainty.

Over the past two weeks, the SPY is off by 10% and more than 2,400 stocks -10% — oil and gas hit the hardest. Admittedly, I got caught with my hands in the jar, long some of these stocks. But I corrected (extra Delbert Fucking Grady) my ways and have taken to the short — like a baby to the tit.

I’ve always been a cavernous man — wholly interested in the dark ages and all it brought with it. God willing, we too can enjoy our own dark ages, one rife with tumult and chaos. We have just the leaders to make it happen.

I am doubling down on my call yesterday. We will trade down 1,000 by the bell — setting the stage for an Asian sperg out Sunday night, in what truly would be broadcasted as an apocalyptic occurrence for the ages.

Pair trade idea: long SHITCOINS — short US equities.

Now with equities in turmoil, Wall Street stopped fucking with bitcoin and it’s looking sporty again.

Let’s keep it simple shall we?

“The Fly” wins again.

Top picks: TZA, FAZ, SOXS

I stepped in and bought TZA — wearing my best funeral clothes.

Ramp Capital has been buried in his fucking wheeled chair. The bull market is over and now is the time of the bear.

Fuck the market and fuck Fed Chair Powell.

Aside from that, I’m thinking about eating a veggie burrito and maybe a little couscous.

Feeling good?

Great.

The sneaky bears did it again. First they purposely blew up XIV; now they’re targeting XIV. The only thing more diabolical, cunning, and malevolent, are Russians — especially during election time. It doesn’t matter where the elections are held — NJ or Mongolia — the Russians will be there to vote in your stead.

The Dow is barreling towards negativity. Early morning dip buyers BTFO.

Get your hedges and living will in order, gentlemen — for we are about to test NEW lows.

I kicked out of SECO for a fucking loss. The price action was abysmal and I have no interest in holding abysmal stocks. I am long OLED and happy with the levels here. But right now, the market wants to suck balls. Face it faggots, markets don’t bottom on Fridays.

Top picks: FAZ mobile, SOXS, TMV, OLED

And tenacity.

I have zero fear right now and I am prepared, fully, to speed chop carrots with my balls firmly placed atop the cold marble counter top.

I bought OLED here for a variety of reasons, none of which is remotely your concern.

Also, and this goes without saying — rates are creeping higher again. The interest rate boogey man is underneath your bed waiting to grab your feet when you get up for a glass of water.

I’m in a public place now — blogging hard and fast. I’ll be popping in and out today, so the best place to get my real time views on events transpiring is in Exodus. Don’t worry misers — I’m handing out fresh free trials thru Valentine’s Day.

Hit me up at flybroker at gmail.com for access.

This is probably the biggest fund to date closing down due to retarded risk management, post volatility explosion. LJM Partners suffered a gut wrenching 82% decline over the past week and closed the fund on Wednesday.

The email header to clients was: “LJM strategies have suffered significant losses”

Fuck that had to hurt.

LJM is a Chicago based firm who had ~$500 million in assets.

Investors in the industry are calling LJM among the most prominent funds to fall victim to the popular “short vol trade.” The trade had become profitable for many hedge funds, including LJM, whose “Preservation and Growth” fund posted positive returns every year except one since it launched in 2006, according to fund documents.

But the risk amplified this week after the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, more than doubled on Tuesday to the highest levels in six and a half years. The move caused an exchange-traded note called the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX, which was betting on continued calmness in the markets, to collapse in after-hours trading on Monday. Subsequently, Credit Suisse, which issued and managed the ETN announced that it would ultimately be liquidated. ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures also suffered massive declines after volatility spiked.

“Short volatility strategies, selling options and collecting premium, have been critically described as picking up dimes in front of a steamroller,” wrote Don Steinbrugge, the founder and CEO of Agecroft Partners, a hedge-fund consulting firm, in a blog post. “They generate very good risk adjusted returns until volatility spikes and then have the potential to lose most of their assets if not properly hedged.”

Tuesday’s client note, signed by LJM’s Founder and Chairman Tony Caine, said that the portfolio management team has been hedging “with as many futures as possible to attempt to insulate portfolios from further losses.” He caveated that their “ability to do so depends on market conditions and liquidity.”

“Our goal is to preserve as much capital as possible,” he said.

How’d that work out?

Bob Parker, formerly at Credit Suisse, now at Quilvest Wealth, used to be my favorite guest on CNBC Europe back in the day. I found his advice to be measured and pretty accurate over the years. Last night he was a guest on Bloomberg and offered his 2 cents on the sell off — saying nothing had changed from a fundamental perspective and although he didn’t know exactly where the market would bottom, this would likely be nothing more than a correction — since the fundamentals were still intact.

Not as fun as calling for end of day — but Bob is probably right here again.

Morning lads

I bet you thought we’d bounce today — you spoiled fucking brats. It was real easy to justify your existence with a market sporting a Sharpe ratio of 2.80, wasn’t it? Now with it going down and all, you’ll be exposed for the fraud that you are — an absolute faggot, absolutely.

The DAX is getting beat down this morning — off by 1.6%. The Russians are getting it even worse than that — down 2.3%. Here in America, land of the mentally retarded, futures had been +250 and its investors had schemes — but they’ve been dissipated and now they’re gone. Poof.

Dow futures are barely +12 and you should expect the market to get crushed today.

WTI is -1.5%, gold flat, copper -1%. The dollar is flat and Bitcoin is -4.5%.

Here are the other headlines.

Control4 upgraded to Buy at Maxim Group; tgt raised to $36
CVS Health downgraded to Buy from Strong Buy at Needham
NVIDIA target raised to $305 from $253 at SunTrust, Street high; remains Buy
Skechers USA target raised to $50 at Monness Crespi & Hardt
Ferrari to launch a share buyback program of up to Euro 100 million in common shares
Cameco beats by CAD 0.11, beats on revs
FireEye upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna
Wynn Resorts downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Mettler-Toledo upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
iRobot upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan
Amazon said to be planning to launch a delivery service for businesses, according to the WSJ
3D Systems downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
American Intl upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Yamana Gold upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie

If you think about it — it’s the perfect crime.

Now if I was a diabolical man with unlimited resources looking for a monster trade, I’d trigger Credit Suisse into covering their volatility shorts in a sparse after-hours session — thereby creating a negative feedback loop that would in fact force them to buy back more futures.

When volatility spiked earlier this week, that forced Credit Suisse to buy vol futures, which in turn created the situation that terminated and laid waste to XIV.

The ramifications of these short vol trade is still been sorted through. Many people believe it was as big as $2 trillion.

The subsequent result is a loss of more than $2.5 trillion in market cap — a full fledged market panic — and assholes in the comments section here telling everyone else it’s a gigantic nothing burger — to move on — because it meant nothing.

You, quite literally, have no idea what you’re talking about.

Here’s Cramer walking back earlier comments about moron traders fucking up the market in obscure ETNs.

This was a crime, planned and executed with precision — leaving everyone else with dicks in their hands.