If you recall what preceded the 2008 financial crisis it was the 2007 $100 tomato fear. You can search these archives and see the fun times we had — a much younger and verbose Fly grandstanding in front of the out of control commodity bandwagon. We pined for oil to keep going higher, not because we wanted to make more on our shale plays, but to physically remove cars from the streets because of the expense — leaving the working class to the busses and subways whilst I enjoyed the freeways in leisure and without traffic.
These were good times and Jim ‘Bow Tie Fucker’ Rogers was our leader. Then everything changed, housing collapsed and the dream of the $100 tomato wilted away — replaced by debilitating deflation.
Eleven years later, here we are with asset prices high, no one really giving a shit about tomatoes anymore — because they’re all obsessed with avocados. Thanks to President Trump’s tariff plan, real inflation is being priced into the market now. While we may never bear witness to the $100 tomato, we may very well see a $100 avocado. Praise the Lord.
Here’s the logic. If China has been exporting deflation to us via cheap goods, then Trump’s tariffs will not only increase the price of goods, but they might also reverberate into other goods, eliminating the deflationary forces of the foreign markets, paving the way for actual and real inflation.
The trade is to be long raw commodities, short dollars. We’re even seeing a reaction in the TIPs market.
As for the specter of the $100 avocado, perhaps get long CVGW and profit as hipsters around the country get fucking REKT as they order avocado toast with their little faggot friends.
