$NVDA CRUSHED IN AFTER HOURS SESSION FOLLOWING DREADFUL NUMBERS

I was long both NVDA and SOXL heading into these numbers and I sold both in the after hours, a very rare thing for me because I believe both are heading much lower. The possibility that analysts will not downgrade NVDA is zero. Ergo, I’m fairly certain you’ll see further downside by tomorrow morning.

This is unfortunate, since I had a nice gain in SOXL and ended up selling for a 1% loss. My loss in NVDA was ~15%, an unacceptable drawdown, which prompted an immediate sale.

NVIDIA beats by $0.05, misses revenue estimates on gaming and datacenter; guides Q4 EPS and revenue well below consensus; adds to share buyback, raises dividend 7% (202.39 +5.20)

Reports Q3 (Oct) earnings of $1.97 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $1.92; revenues rose 20.7% year/year to $3.18 bln vs the $3.24 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. Three market platforms – Professional Visualization, Datacenter, and Automotive – posted record revenue.

Gaming revenue was short of their expectations, and fourth quarter outlook is impacted by excess channel inventory of midrange Pascal products. They believe this is a near-term issue that will be corrected in one to two quarters, and remain confident in competitive position and market opportunities. Gaming revenue was $1.76 billion vs. $1.9 bln estimates, up 13 percent from a year ago driven by growth in gaming GPUs, and down 2 percent sequentially as gaming GPU growth was more than offset by a seasonal decline in SOC modules for Nintendo Switch.

Datacenter revenue was a record $792 million vs. $820 mln estimates, up 58% from a year ago and up 4 percent sequentially

Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of ~$1.32-1.49, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $2.01 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q4 revs of $2.65-2.75 bln vs. $3.4 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

In November 2018, the board of directors authorized an additional $7 billion under the company’s share repurchase program for a total of $7.94 billion available through the end of December 2022.

NVIDIA announced a 7 percent increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.16 per share. NVIDIA intends to return an additional $3 billion to shareholders by the end of fiscal 2020, which may begin in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019

Whether this miss derails the rally remains to be seen. My hunch says semis will lead tech lower today. We’re past the China trade war narrative, and the Fed. Now we’re talking about fundamental weakness in some key names, such as NVDA and AAPL.

I had a great day — but I’m already in the hole by ~1.5% in the AHs for tomorrow’s session.

Don’t get salty, motherfuckers.

The purpose of Exodus is to gauge investor psyche and how they respond to levels of stress. Today, and not since 10/24, we were oversold on the 3 mo algo — the only algorithm that knows the present tape.

The results? Nothing less than staggering. Bottoming out action.

Markets are strong AF. I’m fine, 100% long, into the teeth of the beast.

Top picks: SOXL, SOXL, SOXL

I’ve made it a point to take maximum risk during market meltdowns in order to test my mettle. Grow thicker beards and stronger muscles. I bought BILI, my final addition to a portfolio wrought with hazard.

I don’t give a shit — because we’ll be bottoming soon and all of you bear-holes killed dead.

I still have a few defensive positions, namely NUGT and TMF — but I’m mostly alpha, spread across various industries. I have a mind for this sort of thing — invested since a small child — pre-puberty. While all of you played hop-scotch and ring-o-leavio, Le Fly was partaking in the stock exchange.

This is why I’m better than you.

Cheers to future success and all that comes with it. May the tree of prosperity bear its delicious fruit for the next thousand years.

I’m back to all in again, like a fucking lunatic. I have just 5% cash and a mind to see this fucker rally. In Exodus, we just flashed oversold on our 3 mo algo. Last time we were oversold on the 3mo was 10/24, the day before the monstrous 10/25 rally.

I bought AYX and ACB to complete my journey into fear (plug!).

Semis are leading the way and my SOXL has been a great gauge of risk. As long as WTI remains higher and semis strong, we should see this rally continue.

This is what you call “3-D intergalactic speed tennis chess.”

Via CNBC:

“They got sort of tricked here,” said John Kilduff, founding partner at energy hedge fund Again Capital. “The Russians and the Saudis in particular ramped up production, ramped up exports ahead of what was supposed to be severe sanctions on Iran, and when the administration gave the eight waivers to Iran’s largest buyers, it undercut that whole equation.”

“So now we’ve tripped into an oversupply situation almost overnight because of the severe reaction by Russia and the Saudis to cover for Iran losses, which never materialized.”

To be sure, the sanctions have shrunk Iran’s exports by about 1 million barrels per day. Few thought the Trump administration would actually achieve its stated goal of cutting its rival’s shipments to zero.

But the sanctions, backed by the administration’s hawkish rhetoric, cut Iran’s exports more quickly than many anticipated. The market also expected another big drop after the Nov. 4 deadline passed. That fear fueled a rally that sent oil prices to four-year highs.

Over the last six weeks, that rally has unwound in spectacular fashion, with oil prices tumbling into a bear market. The pullback has several causes, including a weaker demand outlook for oil and a wider market sell-off, but analysts say OPEC’s output hike earlier this year and the sanctions waivers play a major part in the oil price plunge.

“In early October there was this expectation that a lot of Iran’s barrels were going to come off the market, and so essentially Saudi Arabia was duped into increasing production,” said Matt Smith, head of commodities research at tanker-tracking firm ClipperData.

Smith says it’s uncertain the situation has unfolded exactly as the Trump administration intended, but it has ultimately worked out in the president’s favor — though potentially at a cost to U.S.-Saudi relations.

“They’ve really done a good job of decreasing that oil price, but it has been at the expense of some of those relations there, because surely the Saudis have got to be pretty unhappy with the way things have played out here.”

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al Falih acknowledged this week that Iran’s exports didn’t fall as much as expected.

He also announced that Saudi Arabia will ship 500,000 fewer bpd in December and said OPEC and its allies may cut production by 1 million bpd next year. That decision could come in a few weeks when OPEC, Russia and other producers meet to review their current policy of easing output curbs that have been in place since last year.

Trump took to Twitter a few hours later, tweeting, “Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!”

The president has previously used Twitter to blame OPEC for high oil prices and demand the group take action to cut costs. At the UN General Assembly this year, he told world leaders that OPEC is ripping them off.

Analysts say Falih’s comments this week might have pushed oil prices higher, if not for Trump’s tweet.

“I think the market is ignoring [the Saudis] because of Trump,” said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “I think if you didn’t have the Trump tweet, there would not be this skepticism. Right now, there’s a view that the Saudis will reverse course because of Trump. There’s a sense that Trump really has them over a barrel at this point.”

The kingdom is in a precarious position after a Saudi prosecutor acknowledged that government agents killed journalist and U.S. resident Jamal Khashoggi in a Turkish consulate last month, following earlier denials by the state.

Gary Ross, CEO at Black Gold Investors, believes the cartel will ultimately agree to cut output when it meets with Russia and other producers next month. However, in his view it may be too little too late.

“They’re pretty much snookered by Trump,” Ross said. “I mean, Trump led them to believe that the Iranian exports would be zero. It turned out they’re going to be 1.2 to 1.5 million barrels a day, way higher than people thought.”

“Broadly speaking, it’s an oversupply story, and I think they will cut back, but they’re not likely to cut back enough to drive prices back up to anything like $80 Brent,” he told CNBC. “I think we’re going to be in a $60 to $70 Brent market for some time.”

The White House did not immediately return a request for comment.

What a time to be alive.

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I’m not a big fan of this melodrama at all. The BREXIT people have been wanting to BREXIT for two years already and still — NO DEAL. The main minister for this nonsense resigned today and now there are fears that a deal might not happen, or worse — a hard fucking BREXIT happens and crushes the banks.

“The absolutely scary thing happening today is that a deal that could get done might not get done, and he could get in,” said Alasdair Haynes, the chairman of Aquis Exchange, a London-based equities trading firm. “If we have a hard Brexit and Corbyn, that’s Armageddon.”

Sterling is down sharply, as well as the banks.

Our futures were sharply higher about an hour ago — but now they’re milquetoast and looks like they want to swan dive into a pool of hardened cement.

RBS is off by more than 8%.

San Antonio is enduring the coldest Autumn in 102 years. A severe cold front is coming, and it’s going to break your fucking balls off. Meanwhile, we’re fracking fast like motherfuckers, liquifying the gas, and shipping it overseas for extreme profit.

You didn’t think I could resist the temptation to talk about the UGAZ/DGAZ dilemma — did you?

Fucking

Scam

These Velocity motherfuckers should be drawn and quartered. How many people just got wiped out in DGAZ? This is a trade that was supposed to be easy — because natty never goes higher. We get a 6 standard deviation move in UNG and everyone loses their god damned minds. Fucking UGAZ is the new TLRY and DGAZ is in the graveyard, visiting XIV.

Levered ETFs are evil, especially when a squeeze is on.

I haven’t taken the time to read the prospectus for DGAZ — but something tells me those clowns are about to get vehicle’d and wiped from the earth.

Headline news to come — a bastard cold front is coming to break your fucking water pipes in half, causing severe damage to your piece of shit homes.

Look at that cold front, boy.

Odds are, natty trades to $7, maybe even higher. There is nothing stopping it now and the shorts are panicked, about to get their jawbones crushed by coked up gorillas. I’ll be avoiding this trade, at least on overnight positions. I might take a stab at it intra-day, if only to entertain myself.

My highest confidence trade right now is gold. There’s too much fear and too much trepidation for this not to work.

Long $NUGT.

PROSPECTUS UPDATE:

DGAZ, like DIV, has a trigger for an acceleration event pic.twitter.com/Wdq9dTHlsA

— Steve Place (@stevenplace) November 15, 2018

Gold has taken off. Panic mode gripping Wall Street. I bought NUGT.

It was a nice rally. I was in line at Whole Foods judging people in front of me very harshly. I peered into their little wagons and reverse engineered what they were having for supper — very disgusting and chaotic, believe me.

I’m back the turret now, having missed out on that spring. But truthfully, it’s best I wasn’t around to bear its witness. Too much churning at House Fly. This isn’t what I do best. I specialize in building systems, structures, portfolios, and momentum trading. When markets swing to and fro without rhythm, I get dis-jarred. When I get dis-jarred, I fucking lose lots of money.

I’ve made my bed, see? I’m in retail and some tech, and SOXL, 20% cash, trying to believe in the way of the future. There’s lots to take in, cross-currents to ingest. The short squeeze in natty is mind blowing and I feel it can trade to $7 soon — but I won’t take a position. If I had some healthy gains to speak of, perhaps. But it’s not for me.

The crypto markets have been bludgeoned to death, down in the deep double digits today. Total market cap is now $182b, down from $800b. You do the math.

I see markets are sliding again, hurting those who bought the rally. This is an evil tape, as foreboding as it is malevolent. I’ve been doing this forever, so I can get away with SOXL positions and only 20% cash reserves. In the money management world, 20% cash is like saying 100%. Those fuckhead advisors, leeching off their clients for basis points, do nothing other than fully invest them in low cost ETFs. Should that matrix get disrupted by an elongated decline, prepare to see disruption and liquidations, ad hoc.

Again, I’m letting my dreams get in the way of rational thinking here. Charts are bad. Things are broken. Stay in cash and wait for a better tape.