Hard to Get Too Bearish Here

We all want society to burn, from the bottom up. All of the people caught in a house of fire, burnt crisp from the convexity of it all. But, to be honest, aside from the shit-show PTON IPO — this tape doesn’t look too bad. It’s your normal run of the mill sell off.

Old man stocks are running hot, so I sold out of my PG position for a 4.8% gain. I don’t have it in me to play the long game with these fucking old man stocks. It is tempting to buy utes and REITs, but fuck that. I own WEC from about a month ago and barely up.

I still have a 10% bearish position on this fucking market and a shit-load of cash. I suppose I’ll just wait around for something fun to happen and then POUNCE on something and really take action. Who knows? Anything can happen. Anyone can get shot.

I shouldn’t be upset because stocks are going higher again, but I am. I have this issue reconciling what I see and what I think is going to happen — and it vexes me. There are so many unnatural things transpiring in the market now and yet equity prices don’t seem to give a fuck. I remember not too long ago, the idea that China could slow down registered 10.0 shockwaves throughout markets, as investors cowered in fear that the global growth narrative would be upended. Now we purposely try to destroy the Chinese economy and it’s no big deal.

I remember when the Fed was held in high esteem and were viewed as the resource of last resort, the fuckers who came in and saved the day when the chips were down. Now we purposely try to destroy them and minimize their role as an active player in stabilizing markets. Equity prices just keep going higher, in spite of good news, indifferent, or bad.

Presidential impeachment?

No fucking problem. I got +200 on the Dow for that.

Oh, the economy is slowing.

No fucking problem, Joey. Let me jack the stock market higher by 450 for that.

One of your bellwethers missed earnings and cried on the conference call.

Fughetiboutit. I got 700 points on the Dow for that.

Alien invasion and NYC has been wiped off that map? Take it easy.

I got 923 points for you and your troubles.

This market is making people stupid.

UPDATE: More Repo fuckery.

I was having a good time, up until the moment my trading account went awry. I am now a LOSER of 8 of my last 10 trades — a losing streak unseen at House Fly in a long time. The losses are small, 4% here, 2% there — but they’re adding up. On top of that, I was long SOXS into today and could not sell it while it was up and now I am fucked, having sold it out for a loss.

Loss upon loss upon loss.

After the bell, my mechanic called me up to tell me bad news. My Benz repair will cost an astounding $10,000. This is, of course, good news for my stocks, since there seems to be a direct correlation between home maladies and mechanical failures and my stock winship.

For the day, I licked my wounds, bought a few stocks and fell down a defeated man — downtrodden and sullen from the beatings Mother Market has doled out so severely.

Will I recover?

Tune in tomorrow for the next chapter in this fucking melancholy saga.

I sold out of my last miner during yesterday’s trade, KL for a 6.7% gain. I was all out as of this morning, standing before you an incredibly smart and prescient man. See pal, that’s the type of person that I am — here one second and then POOF! — gone the next. I was bullish on gold and now I’m not. The trend is overdue some relaxation. Look at the King Dollar here, man spreading, showing the Euro who’s boss.

Gold is in the tank, lower by 2% and miners are down a lot more. Typically speaking, you want to get in gold on big down days. My only caveat is rates, which seem to want to bounce here. The 10yr is up a staggering 8bps. Who knows what the fuck is going on here? All I know is that markets are up on weak breadth, based off some idiotic notion that Trump is, once again, on the cusp of a Chinese trade deal. You and I both know that is a lie.

Betting against upward surging stocks has been a fool’s errand. We all know it’s bullshit, but our thoughts and prayers continuously go unanswered in this heathenistic America. We hope for collapse, but continually get MOAR gains. How annoying.

My dreams of a crashing Dow have come to an end, unfortunately, thanks to Donald Trump and another trade war victory against China.

Stocks hit session highs after Trump says China deal could happen sooner than some think https://t.co/9JaVe0SoCV pic.twitter.com/DU8osV5mtg

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) September 25, 2019

One could argue that believing in such rhetoric for the thousandth time is beyond silly, even fucking stupid. But it is what it is, isn’t it? Stocks are begging for a reason to jimmy higher. A Chinese trade deal is just around the bend, trust in Trump.

The Dow shot higher and is now +150. My opinions of whether these gains can stick are not conducive with your world views, so I’ll reserve them for later.

Morning gents, Jungle.

I woke up this morning wondering about market crashes and what it might take to see to it we get our fair share. This is America, after all. We do everything big.

Back in 2008, we had a pussy decline of 75% from the top. People were out in the streets, heads split open from the old diverooni off the rooftop — amid bank failures and margin calls that made people’s eyes bleed. Almost everyone I polled for this article believes we should double those losses the next crash, something akin to the tulip mania popping and all of those fucking morons stuck with flower bulbs that price of your house.

The Federal Reserve has been firmly in control of markets and nothing really stands in their way, until now! We have a wondrous President who shits on the Fed almost every day. Perhaps Powell might say one morning “enough is enough with this shit” and resign. That might help push this ball over the hill and down into the sewers.

For the immediate term, we need bond yields to continue lower. This confuses the fuck out of people and makes them nervous. See bond yields only drop when shit is hitting the fan. The fact that yields are flat today is a bad sign for fellow bear-shitters.

Oil. We need that to careen lower. No more impromptu drone attacks on Saudi oil fields. That shit cannot be tolerated anymore. We need oil to cascade lower, because it’ll make people believe China is fucked — which is true anyway.

China. We need them to stop jimmy-rigging their numbers, so we can see the carnage taking place in their economy. Once we see that, we can rout their currency and then spread rumors of ‘capital flight’ followed up with some choice Kyle Bass tweets.

Gold. Pomp eet. The higher it goes the more fucked Powell is and it really helps the doomers feel rich, which will crescendo into the public square with arrogant loud mouthed pricks offering doomsday predictions for the global economy, buttressed by an air of success emanating from the gold mines of Canada.

I have about a dozen more of these golden nuggets — but find it halfway retarded to blog about since futures are flat and no one seems to care about risk or the idea stocks could trade lower for more than 2 or 3 days in a row.

No fucking clue what in the fuck is going on in DC, and I don’t care, honestly. But I do think this drama has yet to hit its apex, which means more volatility, which is also Wall Street jargon for lower the fuck prices with a dick chop to boot.

I kicked out of 9 trading positions today, losing money in 7 of them. I drew down a little more than 150bps, which sucks — but a necessary evil when trying to navigate a mine field. Unlike the evil Diddy, I am not an ideologue and find pleasure in the misery of traders. The more pain, the better. I do not believe in equanimity, but instead chaos.

We have a beautiful set up now for SHARPLY PITTED STOCKS LOWER, spikes to the face, financial advisors beat the fuck down and their neck ties noosed.

Look at the SMH — head and shoulders — fuckers.

A lot what I’m saying on a day to day basis is real time stream of thought consciousness. Nothing I say is etched in stone. These are the machinations of a person with a very high IQ, who is also highly successful at finding pivot points in markets. I rarely get caught left behind — because I’m malleable. That being said, I positioned today defensively and took some high stakes risky trades into tomorrow morning.

WISH ME LUCK!

The media is saying he’s ‘stepping down’, but he got fired.

When going public, as CEO of the company — you have one job: get fuckers to buy your stock. We don’t know what exactly happened behind closed doors, but the fact he couldn’t cajole already corrupt investment bankers into dropping coin into his over-inflated shit heap speaks volumes. We Work must be such a piece of shit, JP Morgan and other banks in on the deal must’ve canceled out of fear of legal reprisals. It’s interesting to note, Morgan Stanley wanted no part of the deal.

The valuation was supposed to print at $47 billion. By my last count, Wall Street was looking to bang Neumann in the face for $10 billion, a staggering 78% drop in valuation. Nothing happened to the company, other than exposure via its roadshow. Which goes to show you, private markets are a fucking scam.

Now their bonds are tanking.

WeWork bonds now trading their lowest since June…92% of face vale as reports grow CEO Adam Neuman has been forced to step down, will stay as Chair
Does this now make a successful #IPO more or less likely? pic.twitter.com/oz9gY5KN4Y

— Caroline Hyde (@CarolineHydeTV) September 24, 2019

More than that, their credit lines are at risk.

Israel’s two largest banks, Leumi and Hapoalim, are feeling the heat of WeWork’s shelved initial public offering. Over the weekend, a banking consortium that provided WeWork CEO Adam Neumann with a $500 million credit line has started looking into the possibility of revising its terms as WeWork’s listing trials impacted the value of Neumann’s main collateral—his WeWork stock. According to market estimates, Leumi contributed $50 million to the credit line, while Hapoalim added $20 million to the pot.

Just like any stock whose share price collapses, We Work is now subjected to extreme scrutiny by creditors. This is not a profitable company, so a death spiral is a real possibility. This has to go down as the single worst IPO road show in American history, well deserving of a post.

Needless to say, Adam Neumann wins the Asshat of the Year award.

Background on his wife and co founder of We Work.

You can run a private company however you want, but when you file to IPO the dirt comes out…

"WeWork cofounder Rebekah Neumann… reportedly demanded employees be fired within minutes of meeting them because she disliked their 'energy'"https://t.co/YsSZiGpNfN

— Nick Wong (@nwwong) September 19, 2019

Not everyone can be as positive and optimistic as “The Fly.” Some people, namely CNBC, just want to see the world burn. Have a look at their entire front page, a cornucopia of doom porn designed to fuck you out of your shares.

How fucking dare they? I should be at school or at the beach enjoying the shark infested waters, not having to clean up their mess. How dare they!

Markets are soft and so is every single writer at CNBC. This is what markets do lads — roller coaster all over the place until the weak ones fall out and smash their skulls against the tracks dead. Buckle the fuck up and try not to get lured into the doom p0rn, for it is disingenuous and meant to fuck you.

Late morning for me, as I am scrambling about the house like eggs doing a little of this and a little of that. Most of my stocks in my trading account are lower, but higher in the quant. So it’s a mixed bag. I have some cash, but I also have impatience for trading positions. Some of them will be cleaved today and replaced.

More later.

Trump did it again, notched another line in his fucking kill club. Remember when markets dropped last week because the Chinese trade delegation cut their trip short? Most people thought they hated our guts and wanted to go back home to Beijing. But the truth is a lot better. At the bequest of Mnuchin, the Chinese trade delegation was kicked the fuck out and their farm tour canceled.

The rationale was as obvious as it was sublime: the Chinese need to be buying fucking ag products, not visiting our farms. Trump was very surprised by Mnuchin’s gangster; but the point was made clear to the Asian savage: buy our shit, or get the fuck out.

With fear and piss trembling down the Chinese leg, Trump has, once again, declared another trade war victory, one desperately needed in order to boost stocks to record highs.

Dow futures are +140 and mostly no one knows what the fuck is going on here but me.