SAAS Stocks Bottomed; Exodus Wins Again

Let’s review for the sake of posterity. It’s important that we learn from mistakes and educate ourselves about how the market really works.

Facts:

SAAS or software stocks are the best stocks in the market — thanks to growth.
SAAS stocks are favored in both private and public markets because of predictability in their business models.
We are in the early stages of enterprise moving IT budgets away and into the hands of specialists in the SAAS industry.
The SAAS sector is the most overvalued in the market, due to the above reasons, and are subject to sharp downturns.

None of those points can be debated. If you hate SAAS and love oil, simply put, you are an idiot.

When SAAS stocks go rocked in October, I TOLD YOOOOO the sector was most oversold since 2014. The oscillator inside Exodus demonstrated this plainly.

Here are two of maybe a dozen articles with me ranting about this.

SAAS STOCKS NOW OVERSOLD MOST SEVERELY SINCE 2014

How Oversold Are SAAS Stocks Now?

Returns over past month.

So how did Lord Fly capitalize on this occurrence? Not much. I have restrictions in place that keep me either in a Quantitative model or very short term trading fool. Both models are great for long term growth, but I’m missing the best ideas approach to investing, a style that I often practiced when I managed money professionally. So, starting 2020, Le Fly will open up a “Best Ideas” portfolio again and populate it with my best ideas. I will still trade and do the quant, but there is a space missing in my investment experience here, as I miss out on ideas and strategies that I know work — but cannot execute upon them because of self imposed rules.

Well, fuck that and fuck you Dr. Fly for keeping the shackles on me. The roaring 20s are just around the corner and I intend to get my share.

Listen to me lads. You cannot lose now. We’re almost there. If you find yourselves wanting to sell short stocks ahead of Turkey execution day, punch yourself into the face and taste the blood of stupidity.

I booked a profit on INMD this morning.

INMD +18.5%
INMD +7.2%
INMD +5.9%

No big deal, on a 3x sized position. That was 15% of my trading account, a pleasurable sojourn into drugs that netted me fantastic bounty.

My next score is being lined up as we speak. I expect a magnanimous run tomorrow, so bear with me as I bowl on fuckers and make them look like pigmies.

I’m talking a lot of shit here — because I’m in the process of taking some big dicked trades now — betting on a continuation of the hypo-rally in biotech. That’s right, big ball’d run happening now and you’d be remiss to ignore it.

Dozens of drug stocks are up double digits the past week. Why? Because the biotechs are the ultimate black box trade — the ephemeral dream that doesn’t require annoying earnings or even revenues. It is the American dream personified — the concept and the idealism wrapped up into a security to be trades by spoiled investors looking to press the envelope into the New Year’s.

Do you understand what you’re getting into?

Buying biotechs here is no different from taking a spin on the roulette wheel. Either way you slice it, 666 is the bottom line. Do not follow me into these trades if you value money. Since I’ve always been fortunate enough to make a lot of it, I have little regard for it in my trading account and it is because of this carelessness that I am emboldened to take big risks when the occasion arises.

Higher prices ahead. Fuck off.

Good afternoon gents,

I have come back from the gymnasium and then brunch, where I lifted very heavy metal objects and then dined like a goblin on an empty stomach. Quitting carbs is a hard thing to do on National Festival week and pretty much an exercise in futility. Like you, I will resume my cutting diet AFTER Thanksgiving.

Big dicked moves in biotech today.

I have all sorts of biotech stocks on the books today and just added to two more. ‘Tis is the time to be aggressively greedy, almost base to the point of degeneracy. You literally have this opportune once per annum — don’t blow it.

Nasdaq futures are up 30 and just about everyone I know is reserved to the idea of spending the whole week like drunken fat fools — but not Le Fly. Applying a penance to myself, I’ve given up the booze and instead work our tirelessly — with the energy of a much younger man. Yes, if I wanted to I could punch your jaw loose — break your bones and grind them into dust with my bare hands. But I am your friend, your internet sage — who has come here to offer greetings and salutations on this fine Sunday evening.

There isn’t going to be a sell off because stocks do not trade lower into National Festival. The only thing you have to concern yourselves with this week is whether you want to stay long into Black Friday. Bear in mind, this is a dangerous trade.

However, up until Thursday — trading should be meaningful and fun. I look forward to our adventures inside Exodus.

REMINDER: sign up for the StockLabs beta trials and bear witness to Exodus 2.0.

With headlines like that, I’ll never attain my long term dream of going mainstream.

Lots of chartFAGS out there — people beholden to the view of charlatans and hucksters. The religion of technical analysis is heresy and in the after-life will be strung out and cast into the pits of hell.

It’s important that you arm yourselves with data, before barreling headlong with your fat stomachs into the market. I wanted you to examine the picture below, courtesy of Exodus, and try to imagine yourself basing your decisions on technical analysis as the primary driver of returns.

In every instance of valuation contraction, which is caused by rising earnings outpacing market returns, the following years went fucking gangbusters for stocks. The two anomalies was 2007, which bore witness to the nascency of the financial crisis — capping off the year with a -5% rout. The other was the ascendency of Emperor Trump, who slashed taxes and did a lot of damage to the Fed — who was directing interest rate policy in the wrong direction — causing the economy to fuck itself. He corrected those bastards and we’ve enjoyed the benefits ever since. If you recall, late 2018 was the peak for US rates and it caused stocks to get clobbered. Valuations contracted greatly, which led to a monstrous +23% 2019 fever.

In closing, if you only bought stocks after seeing valuation contraction — your average return since 2007 would be +22%.

QED

Interestingly, I am partaking in a mini Thanksgiving tonight, since my mother is visiting and leaving on Sunday. I will be presiding over affairs in the kitchen, cooking a turkey breast, stuffing, candied sweet potatoes, mashed potatoes, cranned berry sauce, and of course gravy. Wine will not be served, since House Fly is now dry town, bereft of alcoholic beverages until the summer.

The market did exactly what it was supposed to do this week, faking out the shorts every step of the way.

My last 5 trades.

SRPT +2.77%
CDLX +1.3%
NET +2.3%
GRUB +1.92%
MNK +3.2%

I’ve been harangued with small fish this month, beguiled by small winners and it’s a little frustrating. But life is frustrating and one cannot get flummoxed by the volatility of it — but instead I will weigh into it and apply pressure and push the envelope and create my own narrative thru brute force.

If you’re reading this and you had a bad week, betting it all on XYZ and got zeroed the fuck out — find solace in knowing there are men like me out there — perfectly willing to feed you fish. I do not pretend to want to teach you anything, nor will I make you a better trader — only a better follower. Life is simpler this way. Delegation thru competence is the fastest way to see results. Why, you wouldn’t try to redo your entire kitchen without having a lifetime of experience in the trade, would you? And if you did, you’d be embarrassed by the results — creating a rift between you and your wife, loved ones making fun of you during gatherings — leading to an unhappy life.

Spare yourself the humiliation and eventual divorce, join Exodus and eat the fish.

Enjoy your weekend.

A few headlines for you.

The reported wager placed by Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates would pay off for the firm if either the S&P 500 or the Euro Stoxx 50 (or both) decline.

The Wall Street Journal report says the bet uses put options assembled over months by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

“We have no positions that are intended to either hedge or bet on any potential political developments in the U.S.,” Bridgewater tells CNBC.

Activist investor Carl Icahn, likely the largest short seller of mall debt, stands to gain $400 million or more if mall owners can’t pay or service their debt, traders told The Wall Street Journal.

In 2019, more than 9,100 stores have closed across the country, according to Bank of America, which believes this year’s number is the highest of any single year.

Mall closures alone have reached 4,087 this year, a 140% increase year over year from the 1,696 closures in 2018, according to Bank of America.

If interest rates have bottomed and are heading back up, this could exacerbate things for mall owners, further helping Icahn’s trade.

I recall back in 2014 when I got smashed in SAAS stocks — Einhorn started a ‘Bubble Basket’ to bet against high valuation stocks. During that year, I believe at the SALT conference, David Tepper came out cautious on stocks and on that news — stocks got rocked. Since then the QQQ is +100% and Einhorn’s fund is in shambles. You should know the mindset of a billionaire — one of craven and indecorous narcissist, mostly unable to be amenable with society — stuck in the bubbles of their own making surrounded by sycophantic yes men who only serve to further delude their idealism and cast their minds further out into a sea of rabble. These people have noodles for brains, soft and weak from years of being coddled and no longer possess the qualities that made them billionaires in the first place.

They’re like the gangster rapper you loved during his first album, but lost that energy in the subsequent albums because he was no longer poor and couldn’t speak to your soul like he did before. Fuck billionaires (Extra Bernie Sanders).

Markets are soft because it’s a Friday and the government is Andrew Johnson’ing Trump. Plus anyway, we’ve risen quite a lot this year.

I sold the following stocks this morning.

CDLX +1.3%
NET +2.3%
GRUB +1.92%

The CDLX is especially fulfilling because it was a large loss that I doubled down on yesterday. It bounced immediately after I bought it and it continued higher today — making the trade a winner. There are few things as satisfying as turning a bad trade good.

I sold SRPT for a 2.7% gain, and I also bought 5 more stocks — one of which was an average down. Other than that, I had a pretty meaningless day, both listless and moribund. Inside the Pelican Room, we discussed important topics, such as 90s styles in garments, from giant polo logos to cross colors clown jeans. I am ashamed at how I used to dress myself, clad in the gaudiest of colors and fabrics. These days I simply walk my halls in a robe and slippers, pipe clenched between my teeth, yelling at people online.

It should be noted, my German counterpart is working tirelessly on Exodus 2.0, aka Stocklabs. He had promised me a working beta by 12/1, but I seriously doubt it could be done. If he fails to produce a working beta, he promised to saw off both of his arms, terms that I gratefully accepted.

Click onto the link above and sign up for the beta trial. The more people who sign up the greater pressure he’s under.

Markets were soft — but I’m not concerned. Tomorrow is a Friday and it’s possible we can slide lower. But even if we did, no way I am shorting into National Festival week. As we speak, large mouthed Americans are preparing to ingest massive amounts of sweet potatoes and greened beans and pecan pies. There is little in the way of wanton degeneracy and feel good increases in share prices.

Off to take an afternoon shower.

So stocks are lower, but oil is up? Also, bond yields are up — and gold is lower? No, that is not the way sell offs happen and I cannot, for the life of me, take this seriously — just one week before Thanksgiving. For the love of God, stuffing will soon be consumed at an industrial rate. Pecan pies and larger than life goblets of wine poured down the gullets of millions of Americans — all fat and stupid, watching the ballgame on the television. You’d have to be a supreme moron to believe, mind you, that stocks pose any significant danger from now until then.

HOWEVER, the day after is Black Friday, which has nothing to do with African Americans — but instead it means that people black out fighting for toasters and microwave ovens — in order to secure discounts at large chain stores. To secure these savings, people live outside these stores for a week, live in tents on the street — just so they can barge in first into Best Buy or Walmart and earn the right to grab that very first toaster. This of course is the result of decades of eugenics, which has presided over the decrease of IQ inside of America. We’ve gone from a competent people, sporting IQs in the range of 100-110 to something in the order of 90-99. This might seem like a small difference to the average pleb, but it means the difference between waiting online for a week outside in the cold and instead buying it online from the comforts of one’s home.

With the lowering of the national IQ, the tale end of the subjects now sport most heinous IQs, so low it makes them practically invalids who only know self-aggrandizement thru sex, drugs, and booze. As the next decades press on, we could expect even more of the same, as America becomes so stupid — it literally fucks itself into a jambox that deserves no extrication. It is at this point when the true collapse will come and the stock market will spiral all the way to zero. What you see in front of your eyes is an Empire in decline — the latter days of greatness now wearing away like the leather on an old steering wheel.