Rebuild with Quality Stocks

If you fucked up and find yourself wishing for a miracle, your pink levels are 1,000% and you need to clean slate. Often times at market tops people get stuck with the most speculative stocks because risk was rewarding then and the highest returns were found in the very worst companies. During declines those stocks lead the way lower and the trap is believing those shit stocks will bounce the hardest.

That’s not the way this works.

Those stocks are finished for good, or at least for a while. The stocks to bounce first are ones of the highest quality, names like SHOP, SE, SQ, TTD, SAAS stocks, NTLA. Yes I’m talking my book because I know what should rally during an oversold bounce. I know because I’ve been doing this so fucking long it is ingrained in my DNA.

If we reverse lower today and this small bounce given up, you would expect some truly horrible price action to follow. Don’t spend all your cash and if you’re selling short, consider it a hedge against longs. Net shorting into a hole often leads to men jumping off buildings.

My position is 50% cash, the rest long in quality names. The cash will be used to average down or in or even up into the stocks mentioned above.

This is the worst economic environment since 1819. The piece of shit President is more concerned with COVID shots for 5 year olds and voting rights than what the fuck is happening in this cock-sucking market. We have ARKK down 49% over the past year. This is exactly what the average retail investor has withstood.

We are in fact rudderless, drifting off into the sea of sharks — consumed by the inclement weather — forlorn and lost. This is the worst month since March 2020 and just like I blamed Bush for being a feckless hazard piece of shit in 2008, I am blaming Biden today. The man is for all intents and purposes dead. He is in fact a useless caricature of what a man is supposed to be, let alone being a leader for the free world. The word free is humorous, since we are less and less free each and every day. The cunts just passed the infrastructure bill that will place KILL SWITCHES in all of your cars by 2026.

Biden and his ilk do not care about the market or the economy or anything else. All they care about is profits for Pfizer. I cannot tell you why and I hate to tell you this too — but voting is overrated and I couldn’t give a fuck about votes. Let’s talk about the IWM and how is spirals each day and how stocks like SHOP are off by 30% the past month, pricing in a Russian invasion of Vancouver.

We have been cracked like an old plate and no one is around to pick up the pieces.

You can’t buy anything, oils, tech, bonds, cryptos, with exception to gold today but who in the fuck is buying gold into the close? There have been several false set ups today, all have failed and now we’re steaming lower again. I’ve resisted the temptation to trade because -6% for January is quite enough and I don’t need to take risk when the set up is poor.

The one silver lining today is -4bps in the 10yr, a much needed release on the pressure valve — which has laid waste to housing related names like TREX, FND and TOL.

Some stocks are just completely decimated, like MTTR — off by 50% the past two weeks.

On a wider lens, the collapse of civilization is at hand, as dysgenics grips the west and subsequent IQs plummet generation by generation as the dominant peoples die off and are replaced by fucking morons of underclass reprobates. Because of this, insidious malefactors are now in control of all facets of the country, which is driving the other 40% mad. We are collapsing in more than one way. The future of everything you see before you, on a long enough timeline, is Detroit.

The death-spiral will accelerate as Darwinian conditions produce low IQ leaders and purpled haired catamites cast a pall upon what was once considered a great civilization. Whether it happens now or 10 years in the future — it is inevitable.

One of my most hated penchants of Wall Street is its desire to always retest the lows. Last night the NASDAQ futs tumbled 150 and now we’re up 126; but it’s weak like Ukraine and plenty of stocks are down over fears of a reversal in order to RETEST ZE LOWS.

Why must we retest the lows?

I often asked myself this very question as I attempted to make sense of the world. But it’s of no use. The market always wants to retest the lows because it SHAKES others out and causes them harm and ruin and Wall Street loves that sordid blend of misery. It’s all fun and games until your margin clerk liquidates your fucking account and tells you to fuck off.

Early going I was up more than 100bps and then the fade hit so I sold and sold and sold until I was left with just two positions in my trading: WCLD at 16% weight and SHOP at 5%. My Quant is fully long and my new Algo based account is 33% long TNA. I am +70bps in my trading because SAAS is strong and is ignoring the weakness underneath the veneer of this tape. Breadth is just 53% and I would not be surprised to see the markets reverse into the close. It’s important to note we are in the midst of a legitimate crisis, as Russian troops and equipment steam towards Europe, menacing the fucks in Ukraine and the Baltics. If Russia invades the Ukraine, expect sharply lower prices. I do not know how we might price in the specter of cruise missiles landing in Berlin.

As for today, keep an eye on bond yields. Should they pressure higher, stocks will drop and vice versa.

Imagine this. Dip buyers retardly trip over each other to squeeze stocks off the lows and into space. The current rout become a buying frenzy with lavish gains of 20% intra day evenly distributed like some sort of communist-capitalist bastard offspring. We all laugh and choke on shrimp cocked tails, perform heimlich maneuvers on each other and then wash it down with iced cold champagne. The losses of 2022 washed away like a dirty pig in a hot bath.

Gentlemen, I speak to you from the future. These things, and much more, are destined to occur. The Stocklabs mean reversion algorithms kicked in today, flagging for the first time since December OVERSOLD on our 12mo long dated algorithm.

What does this mean?

It means people are racked with worries and losses and when fear is this palpable a reversion to the mean is likely to occur.

Here are the backtest results over the last year.

I’ve been trading off these algorithms since 2009 and the times they missed all had one thing in common.

Something extraordinary happened.

Pray tell me, does anything extraordinary seem to be happening at the present?

It’s over Ladies and Gents. The barbarian hordes have taken over our cities and everything that was once sacred in America (family, trust, integrity, honor) are now gone. Replacing it are “heroes”, the “front line” nurses and doctors injecting vaccines into people in order to do nothing against the spread of COVID. These people are in fact braver than the men who stormed the beaches of Normandy, catching German bullets with their helmets in the name of democracy. Now we cannot visit a restaurant without the proper medical status, not because the vaccine stops the spread of COVID — but in order to express our allegiance to this new religion — one based on the premise of science.

Speaking of science, XBI got plugged today and all rugs pulled, as markets careened lower in a manner that is reminiscent of all previous bear markets. People sold the close as fast as they could — because they cannot stand to see what the headlines read tonight.

Will the 10yr eclipse 2%? Will rising rates cause another housing crash?

One thing is for certain, we have popped the tech bubble in its entirety. Shares of NET are down 60% from their highs and lesser names are down even more. For me, I view this as capitulation and a time to buy. This is counter-trend and sometimes counter-trend pays off big. I closed down 3.5% for the session, 10% cash, long besides my emotions because nothing crashes forever, as we now inverse the Trumpian returns and bleed out unceremoniously. We shall rise again — but the gains will be short lived and frantic, so take the bounces when they come and bank them.

Complete annihilation from the top down. When has American been this bad, tell me? We are segregated by class, race, and medicinal status, all encouraged by leadership. Our wars have been giant colossal failures to the point of national humiliation. Economic policy has been ruinous to the point that it encourages sloth and has resulted in supply chain catastrophes and rapid inflation. Structurally our cities are cesspools of crime and degeneracy, once testaments to our greatness but now reminders of our failures.

So it’s not really a surprise to see Russia moving military personnel around or China menacing Taiwan or our medical establishment completely and totally discredited after two years of propaganda trying to convince parents to inject their 5 year olds with a vaccine against a virus that poses close to zero risk to them. I thought the Trump administration was bad, always making promises but instead ending up in scandals — but this takes the cake.

Has a President ever been so persona non grata? I don’t even hate Biden. He evokes no emotional response from me other than depression. I look at him and think he’s not there. Luckily for us, the President isn’t really in charge. I must say, this is the worst leadership from the CIA in decades, perhaps ever.

Markets are spiraling lower and at the center of the problem are interest rates, with the 10yr now above 1.8%. SAAS stocks are off 18% for 2022 and only energy stocks are doing well thanks to inflation and a European energy crisis.

I’m open to the idea of a silver lining in all this. Perhaps, at least from a stock market point of view, we are oversold and can rally soon out of sympathy. But even if we did, none of the problems are going away and in order to get the inflation genie back in the bottle it’s gonna take some deflationary measures to make it happen — never a feel good process.

It’s extremely distasteful to discuss looming wars, since as a man I naturally, somehow, pine for it — even though I am 100% sure if actually in one I’d hate it. It is the reason why men love war films or acts of extreme violence. It satiates our hunter/gather desires and the desire to commit wanton acts of violence against one another.

War is always a game for the elites, spent gratuitously with the lives of the plebs. They get us all worked up with nationalistic fervor and assign causes for us to fight for. The truth is, these sons of bitches are always up to no good. For the past 20 years I’ve bore witness to the United Steaks poke at Russia in a variety of ways. But the power we exuded out into the world started to fray with our unsuccessful meddling in Syria, the rise of ISIS which was suspect as fuck, and the final and dastardly humiliation in Afghanistan. As a people, we are wholly divided and demoralized, with our government more concerned with depraved and divisive policies than the projection of power and excellence in the world. We are, in so many ways, the laughing stock of the world — an obvious empire in decline — mostly self-inflicted by sociology professors and Think Tank catamites.

I digress and will do so again.

I present to you very unusual military movements in Russia. The obvious target is Ukraine. The not so obvious targets are NATO Baltic states: Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia. We could never defend those states and it’s almost as if we included them in NATO as bait to find a reason to wage war with Russia. Down below you will find a sundry of resources that can quickly get you up to date with what seems like something important to watch. If it turns out to be nothing, Russia would’ve committed one of the most expensive and dramatic military exercises in decades.

Last night, when the Baltic Fleet landing ships departed Baltiysk, a Russian cargo flight from the military affiliated Volga-Dneper group took a very interesting route that brought them past Gotland at 28k ft.
Coincidence?#Russia pic.twitter.com/n8ZnSDLjDe

— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) January 16, 2022

??????The Swedish military is stationed on the island of Gotland amid the activity of the Russian Navy in the Baltic Sea.
#Sweden #Russia pic.twitter.com/jBVX0ljx75

— The RAGE X (@theragex) January 16, 2022

Russian military hardware passing through Tyumen heading West pic.twitter.com/bi8s2ylLd3

— jean-patrick (@jp_clancy) January 16, 2022

I was tepid the whole day, due to sheer cowardice thanks to the carnage of the market. Although tempted to behave like the fucking lunatics inside Stocklabs, I did my own thing — went long LABU near the lows and was buying WCLD when no one wanted it. Then LABU fucked lower and people in the comments section were on suicide watch. So when it rebounded and my losses lessened from -6% to -2.5%, I gleefully booked the loss.

This is where I sold.

MOTHERFUCKER.

I watched in horror as the fucker went up and to make matters worse, I had a position in TMF choking me and TZA sinking like the fucking Titanic in a field of hardened icedbergs. In a rush, I frantically allocated back into the market, sold TZA and TMF, and let the Gods throw me into the vortex. I ended up DOWN 45bps on a day when I should’ve had a cock extension surgery and been swinging my balls low into MLK day. Instead, I had to bear witness to all of the cocksuckers in the Pelican Room (my paying customers) do so well. FANCY PANTS abounds, as I sashayed into a middling session — closing out the week in true catamite style -0.5%.

On a brighter note, my Quant did well — because that has my non-emotional brain and not the one racked with fears.

NOTE: WE NOW OFFER FREE TRIALS AT Stocklabs. I WILL 100% REVOKE THIS AND YOU CANNOT FIND IT ON OUR NORMAL LANDING PAGE. FREE FOR 7 DAYS, CANCEL AT ANYTIME.

BTW: I closed 100% long, no hedges.

Ciao

What can go wrong? I bought the morning pops in LABU and WCLD and view the market as opportunistic. It’s entirely possible this is the top intra-day — but I doubt it. On Jupiter’s Stone, should markets reverse lower today I might be forced into hibernation for the next several years.

I entered the session long TQQQ and TMF and now own SAAS and biotech. At still 65% cash and an urge to finally have something to write about on this fucking blog, I now have hope!

MOLTO BENE.