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RUSSIA AGREES TO TALKS WITH WEST; FED’S BULLARD STICKS TO HARDLINE ON POLICY

Mon Feb 14, 2022 9:04am EST 8

Futures dove off a cliff after 3am, down more than 170 NASDAQs, following a sundry of comments out of Russia that gave the impression that kinetic action was nearing.

But then Lavrov said Putin agreed to permit him to have further discussions with the west and futures took off, rightly so.

And then in a CNBC interview Fed’s Bullard reaffirmed his position that rates need to be hiked by 100bps ASAP and the Fed must defend its 2% CPI policy, otherwise lose credibility. He was firm on this point, in spite of the incessant nagging by the CNBC hosts prodding him about markets and how his comments might be viewed as hurtful of stocks.

The net result has been another drip in futures, presently down 65, placing the market between a rock (the Fed) and a Russian tank. Which is the preferred object to bash our heads into and knock ourselves out?

Clearly, the news out of Moscow is noteworthy because every indication since then was war was imminent, in spite of Russia denying it. Who exactly expected Russia to flatly come out and say “we are going to attack Ukraine?”

My sense is markets should be relieved by this but aren’t because they’re filled with babies and RETESTOORS who want to see certain technical levels tested again. I will likely cover my shorts today and go to cash.

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REPORT: RUSSIA MOVES FIRST GUARD’S TANK ARMY CLOSER TO UKRAINE

Sun Feb 13, 2022 7:12pm EST 11

NASDAQ FUTS are unch, while WTI is +0.7%, natty +2.5%, and DAX futs -1.4%. News out of Russia is decisively grim — but no one gives a fuck because we’re all SupooorBowlooors now. I will have you know, I am not watching the game and instead have opted to work.

On the Russian war from we appear to have several schools of thought here. The Pro-Putin crowd in the US, largely right of center folks who are disaffected from our government, do not believe their eyes! They view the Russian movements of massively amounts of equipment and men as merely training exercises. Why? Because the US govt is warning of invasion. See how fake news works? People are so fucked in the head from all the disinformation — now with an actual credible threat looming and actual evidence to prove it — no one believes because Boy Who Cried Wolf.

This is the world we live in now.

In the real world, countries do not mass troops and armored columns next to their neighbors for fun and tell foreign diplomats to fuck off. Of course Russia isn’t admitting to a time table for invasion. How fucking stupid are you?

Russia’s famed First Guard’s Tank Army has just moved into tactical position for a final push into Ukraine — now within 30km of the border.

Russia telling the west they can stick their sanctions up their ass.

The President of Ukraine, now desperate, wants to use Biden as a human shield. Not a bad idea, actually.

This is the real last ditch effort.

And these fucking morons have Putin’s calendar.

And Belarus is calling up their army reserves.

Bottom line: Perhaps this is all a grande ruse. If so, Putin is a dickless fucked face for menacing his neighbors without actually bombing them to death. The writing is all over the wall and it seems the happenings will occur very soon.

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A Unique Period in History Fast Approaches: How Are You Positioned?

Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:00pm EST 14

In the Battle of Kiev, Russian forces lost 700,000 men defending the city against German invasion. In all of WW2, the US lost upwards of 400,000 men, whereas Russia lost in the magnitude of 10 million. Let that sink in for a moment as you glibly sit there in your NYC offices pretending to be a war general — declaring the US should defend Kiev against a country who it has belonged to for nearly a thousand years. The Mother City of Russia is Kiev.

Biden spoke with Putin this morning and warned him again. At this point, I don’t know what the US is planning to do.

Everyone I speak to says the same thing “nothing will happen, the war will begin and end at Ukraine.” While that is all very logical and stable thinking, I do not trust our government to keep things contained. We have fucking lunatics running this country and everything I hear out of the political left and right in this country is we have to defend Ukraine as if it were Rhode Island being invaded.

This is a country completely captured by US interests — imposed with a fallacious President who was illegally “elected” in 2014 after a violent coup to overturn the previous election. Zelensky is also a literal clown, was a comedian before he decided he could lead Ukraine down a path to war against Mother Russia. Since he got in, all of the best of America’s political elite have been visiting Kiev and enjoying the splendors of its nation — even flirting with the idea of including them into NATO.

Two small side addendums to Ukraine.

1. Hunter Biden was receiving $1m per year as a consultant to an oil and gas company.
2. Trump was impeached for a phone call made to Ukraine.

And yes Biden ousted the Ukrainian prosecutor by threatening to withhold $1b in aid. Do you see how twisted this all is in the first place? Why are we giving Ukraine billions in aid?

Our entire foreign policy goal for as long as I could remember is to destroy Russia. They’re the villain in every Hollywood movie and the Russian accent is synonymous with evil — part of our wonderful American programming to instill distrust in anything that is Russian. Perhaps this blood feud is a lot deeper and important for American elite than you know. Perhaps some of it has to do with Trotsky and maybe this is their chance to finally have a reason to wage war with them.

Sounds crazy doesn’t it?

This is the closest we’ve come to war with Russia since the Cuban missile crisis, a period which saw the SPY drop 7% before ultimately rallying post crisis. Since then Russia has went on to become a top oil producer, built up nearly $700 billion in capital reserves, holds the world’s second largest gold reserves, $200 billion in $BTC, and has debt to GDP of just 18%. While their economy is tiny in comparison to ours, it should be noted they are in a far superior financial position than us. The only reason why we are not Zimbabwe and our currency worth shit is because we have the world by the balls with the US currency reserve. What if, for example, Russia-China-Hong Kong and a few others decided to never trade in dollars and convinced the EU to use the Euro as reserve? What would happen to your dollars?

This is a lot of FUD and perhaps nothing happens. Hopefully that will be the outcome. But several things are almost guaranteed to occur in the next month.

1. Russia will invade Ukraine
2. The US will talk extreme shit, and impose harsh economic sanctions on Russia and Putin personally.
3. Western media will support regime change in Russia.
4. US and allies will support any resistance to Russia and arm them.
5. Russia will not like any of this.

The worst case scenario is we somehow shoot down Russian air assets and attempt to control the skies over Ukraine, which would entail hitting all Russian surface to air batteries and radar. No matter what happens, unless peace suddenly busts loose, oil prices will be rigged higher, potash prices rigged higher and volatility will be all over the fucking place.

The NASDAQ shed 3% last week and the RETESTOORS are already out and about crawling out from underneath the floorboards demanding satisfaction. Both energy and Ag stocks ramped due to inflation and the prospects of war in a region rich with oil and nitrogen fertilizer. If you’re doing nothing and ignoring this news flow and buying SNAP on the dips — you’re a fucking idiot.

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LOOK WHO’S AT NEW FUCKING HIGHS — INDEUD

Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:21pm EST 7

HATERS GET THE FUCK IN HERE NOW.

I started the year mired in a slump but had a geopolitical bomb in my pocket and now I just detonated that son of a bitch — ripping +13% for the month — turning around from -10% YTD to +4.6% and pressing my rights against this market in a manner that is as bold as it is reckless.

ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY PERCENT LEVERAGED INTO WW3 and I don’t give a fuck. Heavily long commodities into mind-blowing inflation with monster positions in UVXY and SQQQ — because fuck this market.

Listen to me very carefully. It’s important for you to heed this lesson. I’ve taught you many times since 2007, bowling on you fucking midgets knocking you into the pins. BET AGAINST THE FLY; LOSE YOUR HOUSE, CAR, KIDS, WIFE etc.

The news is US intelligence says Putin is gonna attack Ukraine. The motives of the US is to keep Ukraine for themselves — because that’s what cunts do — they interfere in foreign relations for money and power. None of this shit is accepted by the citizens of America because we do not live in a true democracy. We live in a tyrannical oligarchy ruled dominion by men with hooks and black eyes. You cannot for a single second believe anything the CIA says. They are not your friends and do not care if you live or die.

That being said, I suspect Russia moves on Ukraine after the Olympics, around 2/21. We might ramp Monday and revoke some of these losses. But several things are also true. One is oil is going over $100 and Potash prices will spike like a motherfucker as Belarus gets on war footing. The subsequent result of that will be debilitating expenses for farmers and further impugn the integrity of our MUH SUPPLY CHAIN.

This is all self inflicted and purposeful. We should be madder, infuriated even — but we are also coddled like bitches and comfortable and used to winning and subjugating others with our dominance. Should that wane, look for a rout of the dollar next.

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FLASH: US INTELLIGENCE BELIEVES RUSSIA IS GOING TO INVADE UKRAINE

Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:56pm EST 10

Based on some information by CIA controlled PBS — markets just dumped out on a report that stated Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine.

This isn’t news to me, since the writing had been on the wall for weeks and weeks. The initial response has been a fierce lift in WTI, now +5%, gold +1%, Natty somewhat recovering from losses, and a dump out in BTC and copper.

Net net I am +3%, due my a heavily levered portfolio of commodities coupled with large positions in SQQQ and UVXY.

My sense is the market will dump the fuck out while at the same time price in some pretty severe geopolitical events in Russia — affecting potash and oil prices to the upside.

More later.

UPDATE: C2 is live-streaming CRASH THE CLOSE. Let’s ghoooo.

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LOOK AT THE PAGEANTRY — LE FLY IS COOKING WITH GREASE NOW

Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:44am EST 1

Was it ever a question? On a long enough time line, my win rate moves to 100%.

MTD gains are now +11%, higher by almost 3% for the year coming up from the pits of hell -10%. My advice to you is simple and clear: fish less, eat more fish.

GET THE FUCK IN HERE NOW and try Stocklabs for 7 days you lazy piece of shits.

In times of chaos and cataclysm, you need the professional guidance that can only be provided by industry professionals.

TUNE in to C2 on YouTube live — broadcasting from the confines of his bathroom, today at 3:30 for his “CRASH THE CLOSE” show.

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The Beijing Olympics Ends on the Same Day Russian-Belarus War Games Concludes

Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:52am EST 0

We are off to the races now. Markets have decided it’s easier to ramp than concern itself with the machinations of Fed’s Bullard.

Early going, gains are concentrated in both commodities and tech, with names like BTU breaking out due to the belief that a war in Russia could in fact be somewhat of a negative news event and real life event for people depending on energy to heat their European homes. I am heavily leveraged long commodities, with hedges, +115bps so far.

The weather in Kiev is mild, 40 degrees — not cold enough to prevent mud from being produced under the treads of T-72 tanks. It’s also interesting for you to know the Beijing Olympics ends on 2/20, which is the same day the Russian-Belarus war games conclude. Take from that what you will. But just know and let this be a remindooooor to you — war is looming and with it your portfolio of high value tech stocks will be swimming in a sea of red.

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MARKETS COLLAPSE IN FULL CLOWN SESSION *

Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:19pm EST 11

Where to begin?

First we started with the UK Minister in Russia wearing a fucking mask and elbowing the Russian Minister, as a form of diplomacy to escape the horrors of war. He told her to fuck off and left her standing at the podium by herself in front of press.

Then we V shaped up in the morning amidst all of the pomp you could ask for, post catastrophic CPI numbers.

It was going ok and I was +5% until Biden declared he would “act like the devil” himself to “get gas prices” down for trannies and POCs.

Fed’s Bullard releases an outrageous new item for markets mid-afternoon, declaring he would be in favor for a 100bps increase in rates.

And then it got worse.

Buy now pay never stock Affirm accidentally tweeted out an earnings miss, causing the stock to plummet by 40% from the session highs. It halted, collapsed again, halted, and everyone who was playing got raped.

And then ASTR’s satellite blew up in space causing their stock to drop 30%.

While all of this was happening, the NASDAQ shed 300, but worse was the action in the bond markets. Treasuries, high yield, and junk collapsed in unison.

As for me, I managed fine — quickly positioning into UVXY and SQQQ positions to hedge my longs and closed the session +3%, off 2% from session highs. I did not sell my oils because of my belief there is a profound Russian put in the market now.

After the close, looks like good earnings out of NET, Z, and HUBS, so perhaps we can bounce. Truth is, we haven’t gone up on a Thursday in 7 weeks straight and the market has been incredibly difficult now with the specter of Fed hikes. At the end of the session there was even chatter the Fed might come out TOMORROW to do an emergency rate hike. If so, we might see the market truly collapse under those conditions.

NOTE: We are doing free trials at Stocklabs. Take advantage of my generosity and join us in the Pelican Room. Free 7 days, cancel at any time and you will not be charged.

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FED’S BULLARD DISPATCHED TO TALK RATES UP; SUPPORTS 100BPS HIKE BY JULY 1st

Thu Feb 10, 2022 1:09pm EST 5

With today’s insane inflation data in the books, Bullard was dispatched by the WH to get the narrative out of control, with the goal is stymying inflation. How does one do this? Dollar up, commodities down — STOCKS COLLAPSE. The way to fight higher prices is by lowering them, obviously.

In case you didn’t know, we offer our Stocklabs newswire for free. You can check it out here.

Bottom line: I like short tech, long commodities. Rates are up a staggering 11bps to 2.04%, which is bad for housing. It’s hard to be sanguine here with the Fed trying to deflate. I will say, however, their efforts to deflate commodities are checked by Russia’s military movements.

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LE FLY TRADES BACK FROM GRAVE — SPORTS 4% GAINS IN BREAKOUT DAY

Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:35am EST 1

All thanks and praise to my margin clerks for extending the capital needed to trade out from my grave. At the height this morning I was 170% leveraged long commodity stocks. Stuff like BTU and shippers and grains and all of the wondrous things that are taxing us on a day to day life in America.

Today’s gains are a much needed BOOSTER shot for yours truly. I was feeling somewhat depressed that I had started the year -10%. Those losses have since been erased and I am now barreling through the market place with the kind of style and panache you’d expect from someone of my class and stature.

LOOK AT THE GAINS AND BEHOLD YOUR DICKS AS I ADD TO IT.

How’d I do it? Where was the confidence?

War, gentlemen, war. It looms and it’s all around us and this coming conflagration will result in sharply higher commodity prices. Did you know Belarus was the #3 exporter of Potash? Of course you didn’t — because you don’t work hard.

I’d also like to give a public shout out to my friend Diddy inside Stocklabs, arguably the best trader in there who woke me up last week when I insisted SAAS and other tech stocks were worth chasing down the sewer hole. His statements pertained to the idea of “why chase shit when there is gold on the mantle all shiny and clean for you to take?”

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