“The Fly” is Winning, Again

While I sit here, gingerly sipping on a cup of tea, I am winning. I’m happy to report all of the erroneous losses from yesterday’s melt up have been erased, and more!

Thus far, thanks to my “calculator brain” and efficient money management methods, “The Fly” is up a staggering 6.5% today.

Regarding the market, it is a triple sell. Sell, sell, sell. Sell, sell, sell.

Once again, Cramer’s scurrilous “this may be the bottom” call from last night has been “deballed.”

This is the worst case scenario for the bulls. After a big up day, it’s important to have a decent follow through day or moderate down day. But today, geez, this is just carnage. We are throwing up yesterday’s gains, at a profuse (and alarming) rate.

To sum things up: Fuck this market. Fuck [[LEH]], [[MOS]], [[POT]] and long live “The Fly.”

Oh, by the way, fuck all of “The Fly” imitators. You know who you are.

Ultimately, the end of the commodity run is in the best interest of our country. The speculative run up in commodities has trickled down to finished foods and is hurting the consumer. As you know, the price of gold has served as a hedge versus the declining dollar.

At least for now, some of the speculative excesses are being bled out of the system, led by big drops in [[GLD]] and [[USO]].

Personally, I own gold, via [[DGP]], to serve as a hedge against my ag shorts. However, compared to my [[SMN]], [[POT]] and [[MOS]] short positions, DGP is nominal.

In no way do I believe the the dollar is a buy here, quite the opposite. If you want to take advantage of this dip in gold, it makes sense to hedge it with an SMN purchase, which gets you short some gold stocks.

Best case scenario for the bulls: commodity prices collapse, alleviating the inflationary pressures on the economy. As much as I would like to believe that, it is likely this dip is just an ordinary pullback, prior to hitting new highs.

I sold short 3,000 [[LEH]] @ $44.75.

Disclaimer: If you sell short LEH because of this post, Jamie Dimon will buy your largest position for 2 dollars. And, you may lose money.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chqi8m4CEEY 450 300]

This man is upset over the Fed rate cuts.

Fuck ag and their stupid following. While it’s true, banks stocks are for asshats; ag plays are for loosers [sic]. As you know, “The Fly” is winning big today, via his [[MOS]] and [[POT]] short positions, not to mention his “overzealous” [[SMN]] holdings.

Sure, banks stocks are great. You knew [[MS]] would post a good number, no matter what. Just think, without the socialistic assistance of the Fed, most of the banks that are being bought in size here would have margin calls—and be on the brink of insolvency.

In my world, that doesn’t sound like an attractive investment opportunity.

I must admit, the whole JPM for BSC deal rubs me the wrong way. How the fuck does that deal get done @ 2 bucks? Seriously, the retarded folks at [[BSC]] got shafted, in order to save the system? Is that right?

Now, the Fed is pumping close to 600 billion dollars into the system. Some say “the Fed’s balance sheet is at the disposal of the banks.” Is that right?

Last time I checked, those Fed fuckers print money when they run out. So, essentially, they’ll just print as much as possible, in order to avert a financial crisis. Hmmm.

Well, once again, being solvent doesn’t make the stock a good investment. At the end of the day, all of the banks will be subject to intense scrutiny and regulations. Things will never be the same again.

With my money, I like my chances with [[SKF]] down here. Throw in [[SRS]] for good measure.

However, just know, if the bears are unable to mount an attack soon, this market may melt up to 12,700 soon.

Top pick: Short [[MOS]]

NOTE: With oil breaking here, I bought more [[DUG]] and [[DCR]].

My IQ of 155 is at least 50 points higher than the average reader of this blog.

Fuck off, you (internet leech).

Back to drinking myself smart.

NOTE: Some light late night reading, for you armaggadeon lovers.

UPDATE: DMX is a great man.

What the fuck is a Barack?! Barack Obama. Where he from, Africa?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdvKAnIlB2Y 450 300]

Another 400 point rally. This is getting ridiculous. Over the last 6 months, both long and shorts have been whipsawed, by the ungodly turbulence. However, I must admit, as of late, the bulls seem to have the upper hand.

Naturally, lots of bad stuff can happen, such as egregious job loss or more earnings misses. However, it’s hard to ignore a market that just-won’t-die.

On the other hand, much of today’s rally is attributed to a new breed of short seller, via inverse ETF. Unlike old school bearshitters, the new bear is quick to cover and has little to no conviction. As a result, the market tends to rip off the heads of those who bet against it, whenever there is good news.

Going forward, I expect the market will make a lower high, at around 12,500.

But, maybe, just maybe, seasonality will allow for an extended rally, until May. If so, you’re going to want to get long some food and beverage names or tech.

For the day, I lost a massive 4.1%. However, I’ll have you know, my YTD gains are still more than 30%—so fuck off.

Off to drink myself stupid.

With the dollar strengthening, gold dropping and stocks exploding to the upside, I will not throw anymore retarded shorts on the barbie.

For the moment, everything is in the bulls’ favor, with the marked exception of Cramer disseminating more egregious rumors—this time regarding [[FNM]].

Nonetheless, it makes sense to go eat a ham sandwich or go bowling, instead of fixating on today’s tape.

By the way, with the GSE market normalizing, [[CMO]], [[NLY]], [[ANH]] and [[MFA]] are rallying.

Finally, it’s worth noting, overzealous investors get the proverbial knife to the chest treatment often. It’s going to be a long year, with loads of developments. Be patient and make your next move moderately.

NOTE: Oil is bucking the trend here, up on the day, while other commodities trade lower. Frankly, I don’t know what to think of it. If you want to short crude itself, sell [[USO]] or buy [[DCR]].

I bought 2,000 [[SRS]] @ $107.89 and 3,000 [[SMN]] @ $39.27.

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stock because of this post, Bernanke will cut rates by 200 bps. And, you may lose money.