18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,599 Blog Posts

Setting Up for Uncertainty

In order for the bulls to validate a legitimate run in the indices, crude oil must come down. Right here @$105, I like my chances betting on it going lower. In doing so, effectively, I am quasi hedging against my short positions.

If crude dumps out, bet your bottom dollar there will be a spike in retail and other consumer discretionary names. Now, I do not believe retail should run, if crude dumps out. However, knowing the low grade gene pool of many money managers, I can tell you, they will buy equities and send stocks higher.

Much of the bull case is reliant upon a massive drop in commodity prices. So, in my opinion, it makes sense to be short banks, commercial Re, retail and tech, while simultaneously betting against crude and commodities, knowing the bulls want them lower.

In layman’s terms, I want to have my cake and eat it. Then, I want to walk over to the gentleman with the mustache, punch it off, and take his cake and eat it too.

Right now, my favorite positions are [[SMN]], [[SRS]], [[DGP]], [[SKF]], [[DUG]], [[DCR]], [[REW]], [[RIG]], [[FXY]], short [[MON]], short [[WM]], short [[LEH]], short [[MS]], short [[POT]] and short [[FED]].


LEH Lehman Brothers may lose 24 bln yen due to fake Marubeni documents, according to Nikkei – DJ (39.21 +0.50) -Update-
  DJ reports the co now stands to lose some Y24 bln as a result of a investment deal in Japan that involved forged documents said to be from Marubeni, The Nikkei reported in its Saturday morning edition. Senior officials at Asclepius, a wholly owned unit of LTT Bio-Pharma, solicited funds from investors, according to sources familiar with the matter.

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Fly Buys: SRS, DCR

I bought 2,000 [[SRS]] @ $99.75 and 2,000 [[DCR]] @ $10.28.

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, by 2009, a bag of potatoes will cost $10,000—due to “demand from China and India.” And, you may lose money.

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Fuck Lehman

A classy headline, indeed.

So, if things are so bad, as indicated in every piece of economic data, why isn’t it reflected in stock prices? Year to date, the S&P has hardly been nicked.

Today, we have the shitfaces from [[C]] upgrading the worthless assets of [[LEH]]. This, of course, is very amusing. It’s equal to someone upgrading the SS Titanic, just prior to it being snapped in half like a fucking pretzel—on its way to fishville. Yeah, fuck that ship too. I upgrade LEH, right here and now, prior to it being a permanent living room for fish.

Seeing the market up like this (75) is just madness. Something is fishy (pardon the excessive fish references). It started in Asia last night, with many of the lunatic Asian indices sprinting higher. Then, there was slight follow through with the Europeans. Now, we have full fledged dumbness here, with the market climbing—despite bad data.

Thus far, gold is getting the ax to the head treatment. I am long gold for two reasons.

For one, it is a faux hedge against my stupid [[SMN]] position. And secondly, I believe it will trade up to $1,500, during the late months of 2008.

In order for “The Fly” to stop being such a bearshitting malcontent, several things must occur:

1. Oil must trade below $90.

2. Natty must trade below $8.

3. All food commodities must trade 25% lower from current levels.

4. The dollar must stabilize.

5. Credit concerns must decrease, starting with spreads.

6. Bonds must get destroyed.

Providing all 6 events begin to take shape, I will get long and cover my shorts. However, as long as retards like LEH still exist, I’m just fine here—shorting shit while bouncing empty Monster cans off my trader/servant’s skull.

Top pick: Short LEH.

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Bulls are My Bowling Pins

I’m just bowling on you bullish fuckers—throwing cannon balls and shit at you “do-gooders.” All day, I was leaning on [[LEH]], much to the chagrin of CNBC. Hopefully, some of you ingrates banked a little coin on it.

By the way, I’m not covering my LEH short. As a matter of fact, I greatly increased it today, as rumors run wild of their imminent demise.

Soon enough, you bottom calling fuckers will frantically exclaim: “where’d the bottom go”?

It’s not very difficult to trade a bear market people. When the market is knifing lower, reduce your leverage and raise cash. When it is spiking, increase your downside bets and leverage on extreme up days.

I know this confuses many of you, who are pre-programmed to always be bullish. I need you to understand something: “The Fly” needs you to stay bullish.

I need you fuckers to fuel my cash machine, by placing you and your stupid longs into my turbine. Without you, I would not be able to short LEH @ $49, or [[MON]] @ $114.

Regarding today’s welfare handout to the investment banks:

The brokerage asshats took 86 billion in free U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund (FED) money. In my opinion, that’s an absolute flaming red flag. Expect many of the brokers to announce significant write downs, now that they have this money.

Finally, it’s worth noting “The Fly” is on the comeback trail, in iBC’s Final Four contest.

You didn’t think I was going to lose, did you? “The Fly” wins all the time, even when he appears to be losing badly.

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Fly Buy: DGP

I bought 1,000 [[DGP]] @ $24.33.

Disclaimer: If you buy DGP because of this post, when you die, you will be subjected to that Indian Wisdom Tree ETF commercial, for all eternity. And, you may lose money.

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Re-Breaking News: CNBC to the Rescue

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChokGbJdeSM 450 300]

Take that bulls bears!

For fear of closing in the red, I couldn’t wait, until 3:45, to re-release this news.

You’re welcome.

UPDATE: The investment banks only took in 86 billion in free money from the Fed. Hell, that’s fucking great news. That means they only have 86 billion in write downs left, no? Even more good news.

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A CNBC Led Rally

We can do it, folks.

Come one gang, let’s run the market higher, so that we may preserve CNBC’s ratings.

Do it for CNBC!

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