STOCK SET TO CAREEN LOWER AS WAR IN UKRAINE RAGES ON

There is plenty of blame to go around for how we got to this place in the world, starting with the west’s decision to become wholly dependent upon Russian oil and gas, whilst at the same time ceasing to invest in hydro-carbons. The ESG virtue signaling bullshit has resulted in a fuckload of windmills and solar panels, and now a freezing Europe due to lack of fuel for their furnaces and a belligerent Russia using military force to reassert their dominance in a region of the world ancient to them, rich with historical and cultural ties, and yet I wonder what the fuck was going on with America embedded in that country appointing their politicians and arming them with Raytheon’s very best?

The utopian dream of America on Russia’s border, controlling Kiev, is ostensibly over. As much as we supported Ukraine and everyone appeared to be their friends, in the end, a country can only depend on itself to defend its borders. This is between Russia and Ukraine and there’s not much we can do short of military intervention. Those are just the cold hard facts. Does China use this to invade Taiwan? I don’t think so, since China doesn’t produce its own food. Nevertheless, markets are likely to remain on edge for some time, at least until this is somewhat stabilized — and then what? Business as usual with Russia? How can Europe heat their homes without Russian gas? What about Russian wheat and now Ukrainian wheat — the bread basket of Europe?

Once again, the people, the ordinary people, lose out to poor leadership and corruption. The leaders inside Ukraine chose to ignore the signs for months, publicly decrying US intelligence as being wrong about a Russian invasion. For years they poked at Russia while attempting to join NATO — acquired advanced weaponry and smugly demeaned their far superior neighbor because hubris.

In the end, always, the strong eats the weak, no matter how many interviews they do on 60 Minutes.

Now what?

Rock meets hard place. People are happy over the idea that the Fed might not hike due to this war. Really? Oil is fucking surging, alongside corn, wheat, natty, and every other commodity traded. Inflation just got much much worse and if the Fed doesn’t act to counter inflation, we could have a much larger problem with inflation that anyone could’ve ever imagined possible.

I had prepared for this eventuality and own lots of UVXY and TZA, along with an array of commodity stocks. I will likely go to cash today and perhaps get real small and pick and choose my spots. I do not think this is a day to bottom fish, ahead of Friday, ahead of the longest weekend in decades.

Putin addressed Russia at 5:36am to inform his country he was declaring war on Ukraine. The operation is officially underway and here is the run down.

Russian President Putin to Ukrainian soldiers: “Your ancestors fought the Nazis, don’t obey the orders of the Nazi Junta in Kyiv. Lay down your arms and go home.”

PUTIN: “To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside: if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history. All relevant decisions have been taken. I hope you hear me.”

NASDAQ FUTS -330

US 10YR -7bps 1.9%

WHEAT +4.2%

NATTY +3%

GOLD +1%

WTI +2.8%

BIDEN: ON THURSDAY, WE WILL ANNOUNCE FURTHER SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA.

Explosions now being reported in Odesa as well, as Russian bombardment of Ukraine continues.

MLRS SHELLING IN UKRAINE pic.twitter.com/FePbOtVTCC

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 24, 2022

A terrible night for the people of Ukraine. The response to markets have been severe, with cascading futures and soaring commodities. The kitchen sink is being thrown at Ukraine and there is no way the capitol can stand for longer than a few days. The west now finds themselves in the unenviable position of having to completely cut off Russia and deal with the deleterious consequences of not having enough wheat, potash, oil and gas, or cutting them off and now dealing with a militarily superior foe on its borders. One thing is for certain, tonight is the beginning of a new militarization across Europe, for the sake of their survival.

REMINDER: Ukraine isn’t a democracy, but a US puppet state of thieves powered by corruption.

There appears to be a significant escalation of events happening tonight, starting with the President of Ukraine attempting to call Putin and then speaking to the Russian people in Russian, a language he has attempted to remove from Ukraine, in an effort to sue for peace.

Here is the run down.

Crimea!!! Kalanchak outpost is under attack. Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are running away #Crimea #Ukraine #Crimea pic.twitter.com/gemJ0TO2bA

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) February 24, 2022

ABC News is reporting that Russian military commanders have gone to command center.

Ukraine closes airspace nationwide, citing “potential hazard” *

REPORTS OF EXPLOSIONS IN MARIUPOL

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU): Russia has purchased 45,000 body bags.

RUSSIA HAS CLOSED SOME AIRSPACE IN ROSTOV FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION ON EASTERN BORDER OF UKRAINE – NOTICE TO AIRMEN

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken believes Russia will invade Ukraine before the night is over – NBC/REU

I hate to even bring up markets in light of what will amount to be pain and suffering for people; but NASDAQ futs are -85, moderate losses all things considered. Moreover, we are seeing grains sharply higher and wheat +2.3%. If Russia does begin a full scale invasion tonight — markets might not collapse in the way you think they will. In my opinion, Ukraine is to Russia what Iraq was to America in terms of threat, so it should end quickly and hopefully without much collateral damage. The big question for markets will be: Will Putin end at Kiev or will he then turn his guns on the Baltics?

I must say, the diplomatic savvy amongst NATO and Ukraine, at least on the surface, has been nothing less than dreadful. The hubris and the arrogance in the face of military might made no sense, almost as if these people thought they were invisible. The main Russian assertion, to paraphrase, is Ukraine had gone too west and was turning its back on their Russian culture and becoming a security threat to Russia. Seeing U.S. govt officials constantly parading themselves in Ukraine, whoring themselves out for Lockheed and Raytheon, as well as securing lucrative Ukrainian business contracts (Hunter Biden) has undoubtedly fucked over the average Ukrainian citizen who will now suffer because the greedy leaders failed to take tangible threats seriously and felt they could do whatever they wanted to, despite any consequences they might endure later on.

A gaggle of Eddie Barzoons.

Greetings plebs

As many you see, we are in crisis now. As many of you know, those versed in my track record at iBankCoin – I have yet to miss an opportunity to profit off crisis. We traded here merrily in the 2008 fires and even during the 2020 plague. Now we have the final end game and some of you aren’t onboard. I will lay it out best I can, in layman’s terms.

Russia is sick of America’s bullshit and is using our CRT/LGBT chasm of weakness to advance their internal goals. We have never been weaker as a country, so they figured “fuck it, let’s sack Ukraine.”

Toothless and defenseless Europe now finds themselves in the unfortunate position of having to FREEZE and STARVE to death due to their reliance on Russian wheat and gas. They cannot fight against Russia — because all of the men of Europe have been replaced by trannies (I realize I am coming across as a reprobate).

As Russia has us by the nuts, China will extend their cocks into Taiwan and then we shall really see tumult.

The world is in the beginning stages of burning. What you see here is a mere kindling. The ancillary effects of Russian war is sharply higher commodity prices but more importantly SCARCITY. This is why renewables like GRPE, REGI, and OPPT ran today when they should have collapsed. We also saw spikes in the grains, which will lead to shortages in fertilizers. MOS is your play there.

Let’s not forget alumnium. The pleb buys AA on aluminum shortage headlines; but the keen investor, those found inside the gracious confines of Stocklabs, buys BTU — because he knows and understands how aluminum is made.

In short, we are just getting started.

+140bps for the session, fully invested and leveraged with a blend of longs and shorts.

SIR —

SIR!

You can sanction Europe all you want. Russia’s tiny economy holds all of the natural gas, oil, and also wheat, so also enjoy starving to death. I do not say this with malice, but only find it amusing how fucking stupid the Europeans are for getting checkmated like this so hard.

On top of that, Ukraine is the “bread basket” of Europe, leaving a panic in the commodity pits now with prices of wheat soaring to new highs.

My play for this is MOS — but there are others. Stocks like BG, IPI and CTVA are also interesting. Let’s not forget dry bulk shippers, who might be needed to prevent Europe from starving. This trade isn’t hard. Short stocks, long volatility, long commodities.

I am sure you all had a lot of fun the past 6 years, playing Gordon Gekko inside the stock exchange. But all of that is now over. The fires are here and they’re burning bright and beautiful.

U.S. HAS INDICATIONS THAT RUSSIA PLANS TO USE ITS MILITARY RESERVES AND NATIONAL GUARD, SUGGESTING LONG TERM GOALS IN UKRAINE- OFFICIAL

RUSSIAN FORCES ARRAYED AROUND UKRAINE ARE AS READY AS THEY CAN BE, 80 PERCENT IN FORWARD POSITIONS, READY TO GO – U.S. DEFENSE OFFICIAL

Along that narrative, Le Fly is +70bps for the session, supreme during a period of extreme duress. Sir, I was built in the fires, for the fires. My entire life is a culmination of blazes only offered respite inside simmering conflagrations of vengeance.

You are not built for the fires and shall melt in it. This new era we find ourselves in will pit neighbor against neighbor, cannibalism rampant along the countryside. Black market arms dealers ruling areas like Tribal Overlords, lawless amidst a barter system of worthless dollars. This is not the tail-end of the downturn but the very beginning. We have significant downside to go, all in due time and without warning.

Tenuous start to the session with numerous fades. Not sure if it’s over again, but at least we have wildly higher commodity prices to make us feeeeel better.

It would appear risk appetite isn’t there now, likely due to the war mongers on the left clamoring for world war. Once we get past all of this we could then refocus our attention on 9 RATE HIKES FOR 2022.

I allocated into commodities, kept my shorts and volatility long, 40% cash. I will decide what to do with the rest later on. I feel uneasy being exposed on both the long and the short side.

For the record, I don’t give a flying fuck about “The Ukraine.” There appears to be some sort of rabid jingoism taking place on the hard left in this country regarding war and our alleged allies in the Ukraine. I will never advocate for the loss of American lives over business interests. You can read it over again if you like and understand that my loyalty only lies with the people who live in my country and the servicemen who live in it. I view these things as a parent of two boys and always put it into this context: “would I want my boys fighting and dying for the fucking Ukraine?”

Don’t even mention democracy.That ship sailed a long time ago.

That answer will always be no.

Futures are +125 and it seems like madmen are out bidding them up, ahead of what appears to be escalation. There has been no diplomatic breakthroughs and Ukraine is still out talking greasy about Russia, poking them in the chest if you will. Large convoys of Russian mechanized units have been seen STEAMING towards Ukraine and I suspect we might get a bad headline or two before the week is over.

Consider the following.

LOOMING WW3

LOOMING INFLATION

LOOMING FED HIKES

LOOMIG BIDEN IS ASLEEP

LOOMING LOOMING

Can we have a worse news flow to start a new year? Things will get better, appreciably so. But before it does, you need to position yourselves for success and quit trying to make all of your losses back in one trade. This is a methodical process and at times you might want to quit. Rest assured, I have felt like giving up countless times over my rich and illustrious career trading. I have never fashioned myself to be a guru or something that knows all, since we’re all fallible and prone to error. I went half my career figuring out new and creative ways to lose my clients money before I got it.

It’s not how much you can make on the way up, but how much you don’t lose on the way down.

I closed +73bps with 70% cash, a blend of longs and shorts — not really liking anything out there including oil which has been in the dumps. If you’re lost in the sauce — give Stocklabs a try. We work tirelessly to figure it all out and have an excellent group of strip club going traders in there who are more than willing to insult you and tell you how awesome they are, in the face of all that is looming.

Markets liked the Biden sanctions on Russia and are now rallying once again. The market is craving a short squeeze and any semblance of good news, or not so terrible news, is met with buy orders.

Interestingly, the Russian markets closed up today, ad rallied following Biden’s limited sanctions.

*RUSSIA'S MOEX INDEX UP 5.9% IN LATE TRADING AFTER BIDEN SPEAKS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 22, 2022

To be fair to Biden, there isn’t much he can do against a nation with hardly any debt and natural resources that net them profits every year.

That said, it’s 3:05pm and I shall not be lured into any large long positions. Ahead of the speech, I bought VALE and ATI and lean slightly long — but will likely only add to my portfolio at the very end of the session — fearful of scam wicks.