BOOKED THE GAIN; NOW BETTING ON PEACE (sort of)

I booked my gains this morning, a little bittersweet since I was +5% and only ended up with +2%. I had 20 positions and most of them green and some of them ran after I sold them — but there’s no fucking crying in trading. You make your bed and then you sleep in it. Sure, I could’ve been +5% for the session had I sold in the pre-market. I also didn’t have to get long tech and biotech after I sold my commodities and UVXY — but I did that too.

Markets are now careening lower and for good reasons; but I happen to be on the bullish side of the trade now because I am betting on a Russia-Ukrainian peace agreement. Why would I do such a thing? No idea, other than to suggest that such a deal exists somewhere in the ether and it’s their job to figure it out.

My gains have been reduced to +1.5% on this downturn in markets — with the NASDAQ now -100.

NEVERTHELESS, I will not cry and I also will not stubbornly hold onto this trades for the sake of being proven right.

I am 85% cash, now +18.1% for 2022.

Here are the terms:

Ukraine must change its constitution to guarantee it won’t join any “blocs”, i.e. NATO + EU.
-Must recognise Crimea as part of Russia.
-Must recognise the eastern separatist regions as independent.

On this peace offer, European markets are flat, which is +4% off lows. Some of the riskier market in Europe, such as Italy and Spain, were down over 5% and are now up. Oil and almost every other commodity appear to have undergone a blow off top, with copper now -3%. WTI was around $130 and now it’s $118. NASDAQ futures are +200 off the lows and might in fact open green, which is funny because it’s a meme by now. Whenever you see markets crash just look at them and say “green by the open” and it shall be so.

But then there’s this:

UKRAINE’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO FIRE MISSILES AT CITIES INCLUDING KYIV AND MARIUPOL.

And this.

Sending foreign weapons to Ukraine will lead to a “global collapse,” Interfax

In short, nothing is official until both sides agree. If I’m Ukraine I take this deal in a second. The downside is they lose a part of the country that is ethnically Russian and you don’t get to join the other homos in NATO. The upside is if you beat Russia, kill 500,000 people in the process doing it, get to join NATO, and then Russia nukes you.

The Great Commodity Super Cycle is upon you Sir. The danger to the upside is most extreme and do not be FOOLED into false hopes of Ukrainian victory over Russia. There is a 0% chance Russia will lose. It might take 2 weeks or 2 years — but rest assured, Ukraine will be under Russian auxiliary control and with it Pax Americana.

While we cancel Russia on Twitter and Facebook, Russia is canceling our space rockets and access to food and energy, which is causing pricing to mega spike. On news of escalation, WTI is +12 to $127 and all other commodities under the sun are mooning. Expect more of the same until relations are normalized and/or American elites permit capitalism to profit from this spike vis a vie producing more oil. In order to drill more, the EPA needs to fuck off and pipelines need to be permitted to exist, whether or not they endanger turtles in the process.

NASDAQ FUTS are -250 and VIX is +5%.

“The Fly” is of course positioned for this eventuality and shall be minting more coin inside Stocklabs tomorrow. Join now or continue to fall under the yoke of stupidity and suffer the consequences of your amateurish approach to capital markets.

In my previous post I said the anti-NATO comments coming from Zelensky were encouraging for him to save face and come to terms with Russia. Well, you can scratch all of that and prepare for scorched earth, since it seems the US is going to allow NATO nations donate planes to Ukraine. Since Ukraine has limited places they could store/take off from, it would seem entirely possible a country like Poland might give them permission to use their airfields. Yesterday Russia said that was their redline.

Poland may provide Ukraine with MiG-29 fighters and Su-25 attack aircraft and receive F-16 fighters in exchange from the U.S., The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources in the U.S. administration

BLINKEN: WE ARE WORKING WITH POLAND TO BACKFILL JETS SO THEY CAN DONATE PLANES TO UKRAINE pic.twitter.com/8gpJXs4tB5

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 6, 2022

Russia’s Defense Ministry says countries which use their airfields to supply Ukraine with fighter jets may be regarded as participants in the conflict

TIKTOK SAYS IT IS SUSPENDING LIVESTREAMING IN RUSSIA

American Express suspends all operations in Russia and Belarus

Italy seizes more than $150 million in yachts and villas from wealthy Russians

Without question, the entire world has canceled Russia, aside from using their oil. But do not be too harsh on nations for not canceling Russian oil — for if they did the price would spike to $200 and everyone would suffer.

If we’re being honest here, the ground is being prepared for war against Russia. According to all social media reports, the Russian military is an entire clown-show and the Ukrainians are easily destroying them, yet at the same time quietly giving up land to these bozos in Javelin targets. So it seems we can easily take on Russia and we could easily subjugate them, all the while turning the entire Ukraine into a living hell hole where millions will eventually die. This is the clay “the west” has chosen to sacrifice in order to preserve democracy and prevent Russian aggression.

Why do we get to choose the successor? https://t.co/eSWnly6fN0

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 6, 2022

Be on guard for Russian mass mobilization next followed by conscription in the west in order fight against evil. Your sons might die on ancestral Russian soil — but find solace in knowing he did so for such a great cause — the preservation of democracy and the end of Putin — le tyrant of our time.

PS: your sons will likely receive the COVID-19 vaccines during his stay in the army.

I view these comments as constructive for a path towards peace.

Ukraine’s president condemns NATO for decision to not enforce no-fly zone, says it gives ‘green light’ to further bombardment

UKRAINE HAS OFFERED TO CONVENE THE NEXT ROUND OF NEGOTIATIONS WITH RUSSIA ON MARCH 7TH

UKRAINE FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS IF NATO DOES NOT ESTABLISH NO FLY ZONE, IT IS BECAUSE IT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH

With the reality that NATO will not subjugate its people into what could be a very costly and deadly war with Russia, the Zelensky regime is making public statements against NATO and that is good for coming to terms with Russia. This could be their way of saving face and it might even be at the request of the United States.

The alternative, and you hate to see it, is a long protracted war. While some might view the current bogged down nature of the Russian military advance as a good things — the exact opposite is true. The more resistance they face the harsher their war-fare will become and with that their weaponry, such a spider web nets that cover entire blocks laces with explosives. Zelensky has to realize, as any sane man would, he cannot beat Russia and if there is no balance of power in this war — the only result will be pain and suffering for his people.

Some other statements out of Russia paint a much grimmer picture.

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY HAS CALLED ON NATO AND THE EUROPEAN UNION TO CEASE SUPPLING WEAPONRY TO UKRAINE, CLAIMING THAT STINGER MISSILES COULD WIND UP IN THE HANDS OF TERRORISTS – RIA.

Putin warns Ukraine might lose statehood “if they continue doing what they are doing”

Kremlin says the West is behaving like bandits

PUTIN: ANY ATTEMPT TO CREATE A NO FLY ZONE BY ANOTHER COUNTRY IN UKRAINE WOULD BE SEEN AS DIRECT INVOLVEMENT IN MILITARY ACTIVITIES

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY: BRITAIN HAS CLEARLY CHOSEN TO MOVE TOWARDS AN OPEN CONFRONTATION WITH RUSSIA

PUTIN: THESE SANCTIONS ARE EQUIVALENT TO WARpic.twitter.com/THpUEVA4Hs

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 5, 2022

This is a classic carrot vs stick choice and, barring the sudden change of heart out of Moscow, the primrose path towards peace is entirely up to Ukraine. Unfortunately, they’re on the verge of losing their independence due to the foreign affairs choices they made.

Bull markets come and go and with them the fortunes made by trader amateurs, mountebanks who sashay in and out of bull markets blowing up in fantastical form — only to come back later on under a new guise offering new SCHEMES for the express purposes of solicitation.

SIRS —

I stand before you once again victorious, on an immense scale. I have won the war and continue to beat upon my enemy until there is nothing left — complete genocide and salting of their lands.

What do I speak of?

Why I speak of gains Sir, gains, and lots of them.

Gaze upon those two images and come to realize that I am not only +16% YTD but my automated Quant for God sakes is +6%. How did I do it?

It is my best talent.

I am what some call ‘the real deal’ and I talk shit because I can back it up.

You will never see me, however, inside of a LAMBO or traversing the planet in search for exotic things — because that stuff is for pussies. I drive an ordinary car and live in an ordinary home and live an ordinary life and expect my life to come and go without much festivities. Nevertheless, while I walk this earth and breathe this air — very few of you can outmatch me in markets.

Into the close, I was fully invested, heavy emphasis on Ag and ancillary ag plays, hedged with a 10% holding in UVXY.

Here’s a 7 day free trial to SL.

The CEO of PXD said if we place sanctions on Russian oil — the price of WTI will spike to $150-200bbl. About 15 mins after he said that, the White House released this presser.

BIDEN ADMIN IS WEIGHING A BAN ON US IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN CRUDE OIL AS CONGRESS RACES TOWARD PASSING SUCH A RESTRICTION

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 4, 2022

The result was a mega spike in WIT and Brent with prices at session highs — Brent nearing $118.

In the oil markets, an array of names are +20-50%. I am presently long PHX, NEXT — having sold out from many others into this spike. I remain fully long my ag plays, since famine is something not to be trifled with.

The NASDAQ is stable but sharply lower at -275 and the 10yr is plunging lower to 1.73%. This is a classic risk off trade with exception to commodities. In case you’re wondering about a diplomatic resolution:

PUTIN CONFIRMS CRIMINAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR CALLS FOR SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA – TASS

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 4, 2022

PUTIN SIGNS LAW TO SEIZE ASSETS IF FOREIGNERS HARM RUSSIANS: IFX

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 4, 2022

WHITE HOUSE: BIDEN HAS NO INTENTION OF ENGAGING IN DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS WITH PUTIN *

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 4, 2022

Perhaps they’ll find a way to eat bugs. Maybe this is why they were telling you to eat bugs these past few years — lads like Billy Gates and his soy burgers topped off with cockroaches. With all of the nice hungry African fellows STEAMING into your continent, it’s only a matter of time before the lot of you starve due to Russian wheat and fertilizer OFF THE MARKET.

Prices for the widely used nitrogen fertilizer urea surged 29% in New Orleans for the week ended Feb. 25 — a record jump for the 45-year Green Markets index — after Russia began its attack.
Halted exports from Russia would mean higher costs for farmers worldwide, potentially increasing food inflation when global food prices have already been hitting record highs.

“Russia is the world’s largest urea exporter and second largest potash exporter,” Alexis Maxwell, an analyst for Bloomberg’s Green Markets, said in an email. “Their absence from the global market would squeeze buyers already scrambling for tons.”

HEY! The good news is you can hedge against your famine by going long MOS, IPI and NTR, maybe some CF too. Also, and this goes without saying, Ukraine will soon be under Russian control and they’re a major exporter of wheat and corn themselves, so there’s always that to think about.

The west have bankrupted Russia and now Russia will starve and freeze the west. This has all of the makings for a great big war! The silver lining to the war, obviously, is all them strapping African gents might refrain, dare I say, from exporting themselves into your cities and most might just consider Nigeria to be a preferable locale whilst things are hot. Also, the population reduction from the war might alleviate, shall I say, any grave concerns your leaders might have, or misgivings rather, about the famine that is to come.

I’m +150bps in a horrendous tape — because I am a fucking space alien magician (SAM).

What are we talking about, normal garden variety GDP recession or a crisis of the banks and general economy that causes a spiraling lower in all economic statistics? Perhaps a hot war with Russia might lend to some risk aversion when tankers are being torpedoed in the pacific.

If we are to compare current PE or more importantly PS metrics vs 2008, the last real financial crisis, we have at least 50% more downside to go from here. I know that sounds unusually cruel, but the numbers do not lie.

Price to sales metrics for tech sector, via Stocklabs

Fun fact about the Moscow exchange, the last time it closed for this long was 1917, at which point it remained closed for another 75 years. Russia will just nationalize everything and remove the idea of a stock exchange.

As for America, we need our financial assets. It’s the best thing we have going for us. Let’s hope the worst case doesn’t play out. But if we do head into real crisis, know the lines in the sand from historical precedence.

NFPs came in hot as fuck at 678k new jobs for February, reducing unemployment to 3.8%. Fed’s Evans says we’ll need to hike 25bps at every meeting for the foreseeable future. No one give a fuck, as the US 10yr sinks this morning 8bps to 1.76%.

NASDAQ Futs are -140, following an overly dramatic evening of Russia bombing a nuclear power plant. Calls for a no fly zone are still being rejected at NATO, but there are headwinds of a most significant varietal. Before I get to the news, just know commodities are soaring across the board again with WTI +4%, Nickel +10% and every single thing that contributes to inflation getting worse.

As for the news. Here goes.

2x ??USAF B-52H Stratofortress long-range strategic bombers airborne over Romania ?? pic.twitter.com/v4xgHXUo4K

— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) March 4, 2022

PRESIDENT ZELENSKIY OF UKRAINE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CONCESSIONS THAT WILL EMBARRASS UKRAINIANS IN THEIR FIGHT FOR TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY, ACCORDING TO A PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER.

NORD STREAM 2 HAS FILED FOR INSOLVENCY – TASS

UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR: WE WILL NOT ANNOUNCE THE DATE AND TIME OF UPCOMING TALKS WITH RUSSIA IN ADVANCE.

EU OFFICIALS LOOKING AT SUSPENDING RUSSIA’S IMF VOTING RIGHTS, ACCESS TO SDR CURRENCY – SOURCES

The British government will soon put forward proposals to stop Russian oligarchs using its court system to sue those seeking to shine a light on corruption, Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab said on Friday

US embassy in Ukraine says it is a ‘war crime to attack a nuclear power plant’ and says Putin’s ‘reign of terror’ has been taken one step further.

RUSSIA CALLS ON NATIONS TO “NORMALIZE RELATIONS” WITH THEM

NATO’S STOLTENBERG: ALLIES AGREE THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO NATO PLANES OR TROOPS IN UKRAINIAN AIRSPACE OR ON UKRAINIAN SOIL.

NATO has decided to increase information sharing with Finland and Sweden

Nato is “ready for a conflict” if needed, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned.

“Nato is a defensive alliance. We don’t want conflict. But if the conflict comes to us, we are ready for it.

“We will protect every inch of Nato territory”

Russia’s lower house of parliament unanimously passed legislation imposing 15-year prison sentences for “fake news” about Russia’s military

Prime Minister of Lithuania says calls for NATO no-fly zone in Ukraine are ‘irresponsible’

And here’s some humor, courtesy of the great nation of India.

INDIAN TV IS WILD. WATCH TILL THE END
pic.twitter.com/5jYK4KMJGY

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 4, 2022

Good morning.