Surprise Bulls: You’re Dead

Fuck this market and everything it represents. May the shareholders of XOM suffer from dysentery and lose all of their money, while getting their heads chewed off by alligators.

Although I timed the release of some of my upside ETF’s today with perfection, I can’t get too excited.The market is a fucking meat grinder and investors are the meat.

The one thing worth betting on, with the family inheritance, is that oil stocks are fucked on a spindle. As a point in fact, I like ERY and DUG here, with the confidence and fervor of 10 mountain lions inside of a locked room full of U.S. congressmen.

Going into tomorrow’s numbers, I want to be net short, despite the fact that the market may buy on the bad news. There comes a point when buying bad news is utterly fucktarded. I heard people say it before: “bad news is not hurting the tape. Therefore the market is a buy.”

Bullshit.

How many times has that worked for you, really?

Eventually, the overwhelming tide of bad news rips your face off and sends your portfolio to zero, where it belongs, if I may be so bold as to say so.

In summary:

Aside from my small short position in GVA, I am long FAZ, ERY, DUG, REW, EEV and FXP, with upside hedges in a variety of equities and TNA, BGU.

I sold 10,000 FAS @ $24.56.

Taking off some hedges.

UPDATE: I sold 20,000 FAS, north of $23. I will hold 10,000, just in case

UPDATE: I am buying some FAZ, sub $51.

UPDATE: I sold 5,000 CAL for a quick intraday fuck you.

UPDATE: I bought multiple blocks of EEV, ERY and DUG.

I bought 5,000 BDK @ $43.43.

Disclaimer: If you buy BDK because of this post, in the year of the dog, pestilence and famine will descend upon your neighborhood. And, you may lose money.

I bought 5,000 CAL @ $16.

Disclaimer: If you buy CAL because of this post, in the year of the pig, great miseries will afflict those who supply black liquids, which will cause disease, war and starvation. And, you may lose money.

Putting my bias aside, there are a number of stocks that appear to be breaking out, regardless of how bad the fundamentals are.

Via The PPT, here are some stocks worth monitoring (stocks sorted by intraday hybrid score change of 10% or more/ hybrid score over 2.50+).

JPM 36.5 2.73
UPS 31.37 2.68
SFD 29.9 2.52
BZH 29.9 2.52
ODP 29.52 2.72
CAL 29.49 2.81
PRU 28.57 2.61
CBL 28.57 2.61
WHR 27.1 2.72
JBLU 27 3.01
KMX 26.61 2.76
HAIN 26.61 2.76
CYN 25.83 3.02
PHH 25.78 2.83
KSWS 25.52 3.59
MW 25.11 2.89
MAT 24.91 3.36
LEG 24.89 2.91
AGN 24.27 2.97
LHO 24.1 3.09
JCG 24.07 2.68
COH 24.05 3.25

Personally, I am attracted to retail, considering how beaten down the sector is. Unfortunately, I sold a lot of my M yesterday. However, I still own TBL and GME. Other names that are on my watch list include: VLCM, DECK, GCO, JOSB, ARO, DBRN, GYMB, BJ, SKS and GES.

As insane as my holdings are, actually, they are working today, thanks to the fucktardedness of those who created the 300% etf’s. My FAS (300% upside banks) is outstripping my FAZ (300% downside banks), by at least 2%, which makes no sense. And, FXP is up a few. On top of that, the few individual longs that I kept, like M, GU and GME, are doing just fine. And, even though the market is down, TNA is up.

Go figure.

Sometime soon, I want to sell all of my upside etf’s and embrace the downside, with great vigor. However, the market is as stubborn as an Ox in shit. So, for now, I’ll just wait it, keeping an open eye out for some sort of evil anvil to drop down on you bullish fuckers.

As an aside, “The Fly” is sick with some sort of dark aged plague. So, as you could understand, blogging isn’t exactly all that interesting to me right now. Nonetheless, I’ll make an effort to update you corn can fuckers, whenever I’m feeling good about my positions and shit.

Okay, I am really feeling this set up here. It reminds of the days when all of you ass-lickers went long, back in March, only to have Stuntman Mike peel off on your fucking craniums.

I’m all in, with hardly any cash. My conundrum is the hodge podge of long/short etf’s on the sheets. However, I prefer to be positioned that way, in order to time my sells. In other words, into a rally, I will let go of my upside etf’s, while holding the inverses. When I am 100% convinced of a breakdown, I will take the proceeds and average in.

This is a very delicate trade, which requires plutonium powered time machines and space alien machine swagger.

Don’t try this shit at home. You will get merc’d.

Back to the real world.

The NYC Port Authority got no bids in its $300 million bond auction today. Do not ignore this as idle hucklebuck, if there even is such a thing. If the NYC Port Authority can’t raise money, no one can. And I mean no one.

Here’s the facts:

“The Fly” was long equities, due to “The Turkey Gods,” not for some sort of bottoming out rally. Fuck that. We are going into year two of the recession and, thus far, there have been zero signs of a respite. As a matter of fact, things have gotten far worse—more than I could have ever imagined.

So, the choice is yours. You can get long, like a fucktarded homo asshat, into a gut wrenching -6% 4th qt. GDP— or fade this rally and come out the other end like a fucking victorious gladiator.

Remember, the beginning of every new year sets the tone for the calender year. If you recall, we got plastered in the first two weeks of January of 2008; and I fucking nailed it.. There is no fucking chance we rally up, into the beginning of 2009. No-fucking-chance.

Hence the phrase will reemerge: “The Fly” wins all the time, even when he appears to be losing badly.”

UPDATE: Solomon’s coin trick!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdXy75VrQho 450 300]

I was doing just fine, until Wooshedder jinxed me with this statement:

“Beware the late day rally.”

Thank you very much Mr. Woodshedder.

Well, my day was hectic as cow shit in a pigsty. At this point, it’s rather pointless to discuss what I did, since it’s all hindsight. However, I will say, I ended the day with losses and was forced to rehedge my shorts, into the close, for the love of little babies and currency.

It’s a little frustrating to be off on timing; but it happens every once in awhile. The important thing is to stay focused and not try to hit a homerun, into losing positions. Instead, sometimes it’s better to eat losses, cut a clean slate and start anew, if only for peace of mind.

It’s clear the market is dying to go up. Bad news is not hitting stocks and good news is nowhere to be found. God forbid we get good news, this market will go parabolic, if only for a short term rally.

I can tell you, with the utmost certainty, the market is not healthy. I cannot say if we bottomed, but I will guaranfuckingtee you, the market will not go straight up.

Bank stocks are cheap, based upon where they were a few months ago. However, I think it’s fair to say their business models are severely impaired. Therefore, it makes little sense to go long banks, for any long term duration of time.

At the end of the day, I find myself with a hodge podge of stocks/etf’s, that will likely result in zero gains tomorrow, regardless of what the market does.

I own FAZ, FXP, EEV, REW, TNA. BGU, FAS and DUG.

Within stocks, I still own some GME, UNH, M, PFE, GU and a bunch of other stocks, not worth mentioning.

Bottom line: stocks are for asshats and I should practice my sandwich eating skills, during the afternoons, instead of trying to time tops.

So much for my early afternoon triumph.

Men running around in green leotards, like Bill Miller, are calling for a bottom. On top of that, it is well known the recession is played out. We need a nice rally, in order to placate the masses, who loathe opening their 401k statements.

In what seems like a complete reversal of the trend from 1 hour ago, banks look robust, led by gains in C and BAC. Catching bottoms or tops is never seemless and always done with error.

Considering this melt up, I am refraining from adding to any more shorts.

Fuckers.