First off, I want you to know that I don’t get mad at any of you, really. All of my pent up, homicidal anger is directed towards people in my profession. Why? Sorry, I really don’t know. I guess it’s the same reason why lions want to eat zebra. I just don’t like people in my industry and I make every effort to direct my children away from it. It is filled with the greediest, most dishonest, reprehensible people on the planet, save the law profession.
I hear a lot of people bragging about not losing money in this downturn. That’s great. However, even more, these same people are boasting a bearish outlook, yet find themselves long stocks to “hedge” their shorts. Sorry pal, the only thing you are hedging is your low IQ. Look, only pussies hedge themselves out of big trades. If you are as doom and gloom as you say, take 50% of your assets and get short, with conviction. You can keep the other 50% in cash and use it to get long options for scalp trades.
The reality is, these people are not good managers, but scared money. They’ll never hit the grand slam because they are singles hitters and have warning track power. For some people, that’s okay. For me, I am all about the fences.
Having said that, I am still almost 50% cash due to my belief that “weekends are scary”. God, who knows what will happen?!?! At least my DECK is moving higher, following an absolute drubbing.
Should the market regain its footing, the refiners are the best place to put your money, due to margin expansion. Fucking crack spreads are north of $37 now and the WTI-Brent spread is 31%! If WNR isn’t your thing, look at HFC, DK or CVI, all solid companies in a kickass space.
Best case scenario for the longs, today’s lows stick and we run up into the bell. Worst case, this little rally runs out of steam and we cascade into le belle.
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