[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHpFfgCiagE 450 300]Comments »
Everyone is piling into homies, financial and tech. The credit crisis has ended and investors are putting cash to work.
The only problem: people are losing their fucking jobs.
Don’t take your eyes off the employment picture son, else you will end up being foreclosed on. An ironic twist of irony, indeed.
So, with everything gapping higher, I like my chances going short here. Look for max pain, for the shorts, at around 12,800. I will be very aggressive with my downside bets, up at those levels.
During the day, I had some “space alien magician” buys and shorts, not worthy of repeating.
Just be at ease knowing, “The Fly” is smarter than you and will end up making far more in this market, than most of you combined.
Finally, going short ag stocks here may work, even in an up tape. Much of the bull case here is deflating commodities, while inflating banks. So, I can see a scenario where stocks like [[POT]] and [[MON]] trade lower, despite the market melting up.
NOTE: Fuck everyone on CNBC who said the word “bottom” today.
NOTE II: I love this post, for a multitude of reasons—particularly the hastily manufactured photoshop. Not too much different than the “hastily” priced [[BSC]] deal.
Holy Shit Warning: VLO guides Q1 EPS $0.10-0.35 vs $0.91 First Call consensusComments »
Instead of buying stocks up here, go play with small sticks of dynamite or hand grenades. Take the pins out, wait 3 seconds, then put them back in. It’s fun and nerve racking, at the same time. Just be sure to powder your hands up, prior to taking on this endeavor.
Look, buying up here is equal to declaring the Dow and S&P will be down, less than 5% for the year. Stranger things have happened, but in my book that’s plain ol’ chicanery.
When shit is running, the rookie move is to jump in at the top and end up getting your fucking legs and arms blown off, by a failed “pin reentry,” via slippery hands.
There is no way we end 2008 down less than 10%. So, with that in mind, get drunk and feel free to short [[LEH]], with the courage and bravery of a lion in a chicken coop.
However, seasonality is on the side of the bulls. Often times, even in bear markets, the indices advance during April-May. So, be prepared to live on edge, if you are short here—for about a month.
After that, during the summer, you can kiss this fucker (market) goodbye, as big money walks away from the asshattery, leaving assholes in their place to eat pavement.
Top pick: Short LEH.Comments »
That fucker will come out swinging, telling the unwashed to ignore terms, such as “bear market rally.”
Watch and learn.
NOTE: Cramer is always wrong. Fade him.
UPDATE: Bingo! I was right. Fly wins again.Comments »
I sold short 1,000 [[MON]] @ $105 and 2,000 [[LEH]] @ $47.55.
Disclaimer: If you sell short the above stocks because of this post, your wife’s cooking will decrease in quality, frequency and quantity. And, you may lose money.Comments »
I bought 2,000 [[SRS]] @ $92.15.
Disclaimer: If you buy SRS because of this post, “The Fly” will destroy himself, rendering iBC useless. And, you may lose money.Comments »
They suck. Not just because they play 2nd fiddle to [[MS]] and [[GS]]. They suck because they have massive exposure to mortgage paper, which they are not fully disclosing.
Plus anyway, they are “testing” the new Fed loan window. Back in the old days, any bank that went to the Fed window was sold, over and over again.
Just know this, the market is a place where emotions exaggerate the values of companies. Right now, as I sit here in my ridiculously expensive chair, I can tell you [[LEH]] is 10 bucks expensive.
On the long side, for a trade, I like Hong Kong, via [[EWH]]. And, thanks to the newly elected pro-Chinese President in Taiwan, I like [[EWT]].
On the short side, whenever I get bored, I short LEH. Plus, thus far, I’ve been buying both [[SKF]] and [[SRS]], hoping and praying to dear baby Jesus for a large gap lower in bank and commercial Re names.
Also, just in case inflation has not been destroyed by the Fed’s “tight monetary policy,” of only 75 bps cuts at a clip, I like gold, via [[DGP]] here.
If you’re short the market here, refrain from throwing good money after bad. If you want to add to down positions, wait until 3:00 to do such madness.Comments »
I bought 2,000 [[SKF]] @ $100.99.
Disclaimer: If you buy SKF because of this post, Jamie Dimon will up his bid for Bear to $50. And, you may lose money.Comments »
I covered my [[MOS]] short, buying 3,000 @ $94.60.Comments »
Do not fear anything, your government will make sure there is food on your plate and diamonds on your rims. The bear market is officially over, thanks to the ingenious plan of Jamie Dimon and the kids from Bear.
Not only did those rascals trick us into thinking [[BSC]] was worth $2, they even tricked the government. From what I understand, the U.S. Treasury sent Jamie Dimon to his room and told him to write on the blackboard: “I will never trick the government again,” 100 times.
Leading the market are the financials and “ag plays.” Despite being smoked out on my [[SMN]] position, I feel good—since the recession is over and people are going back to work.
Luckily for me, the “earnings masters” over at [[LEH]] are taking a breather today, allowing “simple Fly” to bank a little coin on his miniature short position.
As for general trading:
My bearish friends keep calling me, saying: “we will not get past 12,500 because…” As you can see, the sentence is incomplete because I keep hanging up on them in mid-sentence.
Instead of trading, today I will celebrate the new bull market, coupled with the first trading day of spring, by painting my office “government green.”