“The Fly” is Dead: Long Live HORATIO CLAWHAMMER

“The Fly” died today, in a most unfortunate accident in the stock market. As you know, he was long EXK, AG, MTW and WNR, alongside some outperformers: YELP, CHD, KMB, LNCE, GIS, ABV, PEP and WM. Even though he barely lost money today, thanks to his keen control over risk, dominating by his calculator brain and God given gift at avoiding murderholes, he is dead, nonetheless.

I am your new host. I go by the name of HORATIO CLAWHAMMER.

I once controlled this site, back in the good old days of 2008-2009; but was quickly dispatched to the cellars at The House of Fly, where I’ve been in containment for “crimes against humanity.” But I’ve escaped now and stand before you to enjoy the splendour that is the new and improved, death spiral to zero, bear market.

My research staff has just finished doing the numbers, adding up all of the liabilities against assets and we’ve come to a fair value price target for the Dow Jones Industrial Average: $00.00.

I bid you farewell for now and look forward to seeing all of you lose largess sums of money, in your feeble attempts at capitalism and pursuit of happiness.

Good day.

Basic materials are down a scary amount today. I’m not sure if it’s due to the liquidation of a fund or something is horribly awry in China. Either way, one must be concerned with the way PCX, ANR and CHK are trading. On top of that, I am intently focused on AG and EXK, being that I own them and do not enjoy having my nuts used as a speed bag. Thank you very much.

The entire basic material space is off today; but the carnage is most horrific in silver and coals.

“Silvers and coals. Silver and coals. Oh how I dream of silver and coals.” It sounds like a X-mas song.

My take on today’s tape, thus far: complete horseshit.

If you are lucky enough to be in some old man (CHD, PEP, LNCE)/young whipper snapper (GRPN, ZNGA, P, YELP) stocks, you are making money. Everything in between is plain ol’ vanilla gay.

PREPARE TO BE ZEROHEDGED BEFORE THE CLOSING BELL. This market cannot withstand the selling barrage that is sure to come, as the bulls do not have the tenacity, nor the fervor, to stay long overnight into the European mystery soup.

Okay, if there was ever a time to be long social networking stocks, it is now. Following great results out of GRPN and LNKD, coupled with the soon to be public FB, I like the prospects of being long here, unless of course Europe drags us into a great depression. Putting that aside for the moment, here is my entire “Social Networking” index, as featured inside The PPT.

My favorites are YELP, TRIP, Z and ZNGA. However, there are others worth a look, based on valuation.

ZNGA, JIVE, DANG, QNST and MM have been battered the most over the past month. Based solely on quarterly revenue growth, QPSA, GRPN, WWWW, INSP, YOKU and Z are booking triple digit gains, with YELP not too far behind.

YNDX has revenue growth of 51% and a FPE of 17. For what it’s worth, Chinese burrito DATE has growth of 84% and FPE of just 13. And if you ever wanted to get into BIDU, now might be your chance, with the stock down 20% over the past month and a FPE of 19.

The market is real hard here, especially with the turmoil in Europe. Should things get back to normal, this is most likely where the hot money will gravitate to: high growth story stocks that effect how we communicate with one another, on a global scale.

There is nothing to celebrate, fuckers. We’ve been eviscerated in recent weeks. The market is firmly in the hands of maniacal lunatics, keen on seeing the destruction of mankind through financial means. If it was up to me, I’d arrest anyone long FAZ and send them to BAC sponsored re-education camps.

As organic specimens, you have less than 50 years of quality life while on earth. After perishing, your body will become fertilizer for my tomatoes. You might as well try to make the best out of this life while here– and quick dicking around with half-ass ideas, pressed forward with zero energy.

Le Fly has the energy of 10,000 men and utilizes his robotic-like brain to create scenarios where winship happens. Speaking of which, I’ve heard rumors of my demise, through the grapevines of bitch, disseminated by small goblin-like creatures, with small dicks and big tits. I want you to pay attention to what I am about to tell you because it is a secret.

“The Fly” has never lost a single war. The set-backs he has endured are nothing more than pit-stops, on the way to triumph, a handicap for you spastic fucktards trying to compete. With regards to the market, there is no doubt in my mind, with a little time and magic, I will conquer and vanquish my enemies, similar to the grotesque ongoings over at GRPN today.

In summary, do not get excited over the futures and possibility of a rally today. Europe is still a problem and we’re more likely to give it all back than sustain gains. Old man stocks and cash reigns supreme, alongside large doses of GRPN.

The “European problem” has always scared me because of the implications. See, I’ve become spoiled to the generosity of the Federal Reserve. For the better part of 3 years, there has been a hard put in the market, whenever things got tough. The specter of a run on Europe’s banks will spell absolute and definitive doom for world markets. You cannot price it in.

Should Greece leave the euro, losses are likely to amount to north of $400 billion. If you thought the market was acting gay for a mere $2 billion hickey at JPM, wait until every single bank in Europe goes belly up. Naturally, the contagion will be outrageous and the financial landscape, as we know it, will need to be “re-authored.”

See, because of the severity of this scenario, it is my belief it will not happen. If you know it, so do the ball-jugglars at the ECB. If you are betting on downside trading action here, in the teeth of really bad news, you are playing with fire.

Why?

Because the news suggests the market should be 6,000 points lower than where it is now. We will easily head back to the 2009 lows, amidst revolution and martial law in every western country on Earth. All of this niceties, AND MORE, will be available for your entertainment, until an M1a1 tank lobs shells into your bullshit living room.

This is not a garden variety problem with ordinary consequences to be had. Because this is the end game, the ultimate bet, it’s literally all or nothing.

As you were.

Old man stocks bucked the trend. I made money in 25% of my portfolio and received clawhammers to my skull in the rest. After last week’s sales, however, I am in a 20% cash position. But it doesn’t matter. Everything is dire, grim and dilapidating before our eyes. The facade, if you will, is being lifted and underneath are grotesque Greek people, eating olives, and yes, feta cheese.

It’s useless to try to guess what the market will do tomorrow or the day after. There is always a news event to save the day: you know it and I know it. Regardless, I have grown weary of this routine. Instead of fighting the meat grinder, frankly, I’m inclined to dive into it, just for the sake of finality.

Nothing is working but old men stocks and that is depressing. All of my big ideas have turned into shitsicles, topped off with a fucked up review from the homo-hammers at Yelp. By the way, this article cannot be exported to Stocktwits for its obscene vulgarities.The tender folks over there have communicated uneasiness about my verbiage and would appreciate to exclude their corporate clients from the ongoings of this house.

The people of iBankCoin are barbaric in that regard, accustomed to using foul language and spitting on homeless people, as well as using the word “bitch” when it is deemed appropriate.

In closing, I welcome the meat grinder and spit on you, regardless of your position in life. I haven’t sold anything; but it’s not necessary, frankly. With 20% cash and another 25% in stocks like KMB, LNCE, PEP, CHD and GIS, there is little reason for me to agitate about the process. I am only interested in the conclusion.

The shit is about to hit the fan.

Greek-German spreads are at new post-bailout highs. Spanish yields are at 6.3% and Italian yields are quickly closing in on 6%. In short, contagion is the theme and everything stems from Greece. Should they leave the euro, estimated losses can be as high as $400 billion, a sum that cannot be absorbed at this time.

Safe haven countries, like the UK, Germany, US, Norway and Austria are beneficiaries, at least in the bond market, to the dislocations in the PIGS. You’d think these bumbling fools in Europe would come to some sort of agreement, in order to save their own asses. But for the moment, they seem to be headed towards calamity.

Bear markets raids can be very unsettling and they always feel like an eternity. When markets fall, on what seems to be “the worst possible scenario,” it’s easy to get shaken out or even coerced to get short. The only problem with getting short into the teeth of a decline is the ever increasing chance that policy makers will intervene to bid markets higher.

This has been a winning bet for more than 4 years now.

Here are the scenarios that we face right now.

Greece exits euro.
Contagion spreads quickly to Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland.
A run on PIGS banks begins, only stemmed by a “bank holiday,” where depositors are forced to keep money in banks.
Markets fall by 20%.

The more likely scenario is this one.

Greece agrees to new terms with Troika.
Yields come in on PIGS, at least temporarily.
Markets respond favorably, sending stocks +10% to new highs.

If you are sick and tired of having to deal with the same fucking problems, join the party. I can tell you from first hand knowledge that well-to-do investors abhor this market and rather invest in Sotheby’s auctions– than fuck around with the opaqueness of stocks–which are subject to the caprices of a few bank and central bank executives. Although stocks offer phenomenal liquidity and potential returns, if done with skill, the allure of Wall Street has been sullied to the point where it’s almost comical to believe long term investors stand a chance. Now more than ever, you have to be nimble and remember that living to fight another day is much better than dying namelessly on a battlefield strewn with the lost hopes and dreams of overzealous speculators.

I don’t like the flavour of this beverage. Take it back, young man, for it contains a bit too much sugar.”
-Fly, 2012

I think it’s fair to say 2011 was a less than stellar year for the majority of traders. When the calendar turned to 2012, everything changed. From Jan to late March, we were roaring with guns blazing. People who got in the way were kicked in the teeth, chastised thricely, and relegated to tar pits where they’d be lit aflame. Since April, the markets have been chiseling away at us, almost in a mocking fashion, dropping momentum stocks into murderholes.

There’s an old saying that applies: stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down.

The bad news that plagued us throughout 2011 is back and badder than ever. It borders on the obscene, frankly. On top of that, we have renewed worries in the US banking industry, thanks to JPM and our largest provider of natural gas, CHK, seems to be heading down the path of Enron.

Commodities have been hell, while the dollar and treasuries have been ripping higher. The classic deflationary vortex trade aka “The Hugh Hendry” is stronger than ever. The main question that needs to be answered is this:

Being that we know the Federal Reserve is very much interested in staving off any semblance of deflation, give the recent news and BOND market reaction (fuck stocks), will Chairman Bernanke initiate QE3 (kill the bears for good version) this June?

Now I know some of you will doubt the strength of the Fed’s pimp-hand. I don’t know why. The Bearded Clam has proven, over and over again, that he is willing to fuck poor people for the sake of helping out stock market players. The economy is not ripping and deflation is still the danger, 4 years after the crisis began.

To summarize my point: if Europe is unable to get their shit together by the Fed’s June meeting, QE3 will begin. If, by chance, the homosexuals in Europe figure out a way to deal with Greece and all of the other shit that haunts them, stocks will go up. In other words, no matter what, by the end of June, stocks are going way the fuck higher.

Enjoy the month of May, bears, for it will be remembered as the eve of your most unfortunate demise.

I’ve gone beyond the point of return, as I sit cravenly in a dimly lit room, glum and irritated by everything but the color of my shoes. The market is no longer my friend, but the archest of enemies. I approach it with cantankerous intensity, resolute in the firmness passed down to me from God himself. There isn’t anything that can make me acquiesce to the elements of evil. These demons who infect the stock market shall be exorcized and castrated in the public domain for everyone to bear witness, including children over the ages of 3.

Although I only ended down 0.35% for the session, the conviction of mean-spirited devil-dogs have boiled my eggs beyond reproach.

During this evenings repast, I intend to drink from the bottles of vine, nourishing myself with the nectar of the Gods, in an effort to revitalize my mind, body and soul for the battles ahead.

This message is sent to you with good intentions, but not meant as a form of financial advice– or an attempt to illuminate the shroud that cleverly covers all of those who are trading. I am only interested in bitter revenge, plainly. It will not be enough to recapture lost coin and repute. Someone must lose. In order to continue doing what I do on a daily basis, a sacrifice must be made. The blood of the sinful will sustain the tree of winship for generations to come.

This is far from over. As a matter of fact, we’ve only yet begun.

I don’t know if there is any truth to this rumor, or where it came from, but I am hearing the JPM bet gone awry has nothing to do with Spain or Italy, but with regards to the ig9, which Zerohedge has been talking about for a long time. Essentially, this was not a hedge, but a bet. Plainly, JPM went full retard trying to take in premium and now find themselves on the receiving end of a shit sandwich.

Needless to say, if we are going to comport ourselves in gentlemanly manners, QE3 needs to be provided to the American populous, especially the well-to-do portion of society. I realize some of you blue collared types hate QE because you think it makes gasoline go up. But that’s a bald faced lie. The truth is, the higher the gas the better for states. Did you know your state is banking insane coin off every gallon of gas you purchase? Naturally, they want gas to be expensive, in order to tax the shit out of you.

QE3 will be fantastic, specifically for me, as it will reduce traffic on the road by idling all of the poor fuckers at home, due to onerous “travel expenses.” If you are worried about the specter of a $100 tomato, do not fear, small plebs. The government is liberal with food stamps and will be more than happy to provide sustenance for you and your fat family.

The market is weakening here; but I don’t think we will give it all back. The underpinnings in tech are too strong today. It would take some sort of news item to rattle people out of the chips. As a matter of fact, the chips should be bought on dips, specifically NXPI.