I don’t like the flavour of this beverage. Take it back, young man, for it contains a bit too much sugar.”
-Fly, 2012
I think it’s fair to say 2011 was a less than stellar year for the majority of traders. When the calendar turned to 2012, everything changed. From Jan to late March, we were roaring with guns blazing. People who got in the way were kicked in the teeth, chastised thricely, and relegated to tar pits where they’d be lit aflame. Since April, the markets have been chiseling away at us, almost in a mocking fashion, dropping momentum stocks into murderholes.
There’s an old saying that applies: stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down.
The bad news that plagued us throughout 2011 is back and badder than ever. It borders on the obscene, frankly. On top of that, we have renewed worries in the US banking industry, thanks to JPM and our largest provider of natural gas, CHK, seems to be heading down the path of Enron.
Commodities have been hell, while the dollar and treasuries have been ripping higher. The classic deflationary vortex trade aka “The Hugh Hendry” is stronger than ever. The main question that needs to be answered is this:
Being that we know the Federal Reserve is very much interested in staving off any semblance of deflation, give the recent news and BOND market reaction (fuck stocks), will Chairman Bernanke initiate QE3 (kill the bears for good version) this June?
Now I know some of you will doubt the strength of the Fed’s pimp-hand. I don’t know why. The Bearded Clam has proven, over and over again, that he is willing to fuck poor people for the sake of helping out stock market players. The economy is not ripping and deflation is still the danger, 4 years after the crisis began.
To summarize my point: if Europe is unable to get their shit together by the Fed’s June meeting, QE3 will begin. If, by chance, the homosexuals in Europe figure out a way to deal with Greece and all of the other shit that haunts them, stocks will go up. In other words, no matter what, by the end of June, stocks are going way the fuck higher.
Enjoy the month of May, bears, for it will be remembered as the eve of your most unfortunate demise.
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Probably right..but from what level S&P 120? 130?
120 and 130 are $SPY levels, 1200 & 1300 S&P
no they are not levels, just round numbers
lol..a round number to some is a level to others 🙂
u dont know what a level is: support turns into res and vice versa. example 3.6000 in copper
why should they qe again with the market being up 8%?
look at Europe. Doom awaits
“flavour”? got a serious case of wanker envy or something?
guido
Chairman Bernanke will roll into June meeting on his Segway whilst wearing his seersucker suit lined with hundred dollar bills.
smoking a pipe made from dragon fangs.
Segways are always funny. LOL
Did he buy the seersucker suit at Cox’s?
Obama’s a closer .. he’s letting the market cool off some until the next pump. He don’t want to shoot his wad this early. In short order, he’ll get the mo going & flowing, right thru erection day.
Romney is gonna know what it feels like to be riding on the roof, in a cage. If he’s lucky, O will throw him some dog meat to keep his hopes up.
If an inmate in a Texas prison receives 41% of the vote in a head-to-head primary against 0bama then I would say that “one and done” is in the books. But as usual the Democrats are overconfident thereby allowing the opposition to stomp their guts out.
Just like 2008. Stocks will be heading lower until someone new in the WH.
Thanks Mr.Fly
I agree, but wonder if QE is necessary. Everywhere I look the economy is coming back strong.
Personally, I hope Bernanke keeps the pedal to the metal, so he can SUPERCHARGE the market and economy.
Oh and PS, screw Europe. So sick of hearing about their problems. If the Greeks want to be lazy bastards, let them trade goats and sheep via the barter system.
45 million people on foodstamps would disagree the economy is getting better.
Unfortunately for them their low IQ and lack of a formal education prevents them from making a convincing case on the matter.
only a middle class sucker would talk shit about poor people. so… you over paid for a house. have puked money into a 401k that will not go up for a over a decade. have kids with massive college debt you financed or you have college debt still not paid off. this is too easy.
Your grammar is impeccable. I can see you certainly don’t belong in the group I was talking about. (No)
There are 25+ millions that lost their job and cannot get one. Many jobs went to China, Mexico, and to robots.
Fuck poor people.
I agree. Bears beheaded in June.
How would the Fed implement QE3? Would they do the same like with QE2, buying back long-term treasuries and mortgage-backed securities?
im just finding real hard to throw money into the long side right now …keeping a small bearish position open right now with the banks maybe trade into them after this jpm mess is straightened out, And if the other banks didnt do the same…look how many people follow buffet and trade like him , its going to be hard to convince me that the other banks arent or are not doing something similar asjpm
and then with the new rules that are going to be cast upon them (banks) profits could come down , and in turn stock prices drop some ..
liquidity doesnt seem to be the problem here ,2 billion to lose maybe 4 billion and maybe other banks involved ..the credibility of jpm to me is gone ..got way to much free time on my hands this weekend
staying small is good idea
at the risk of creating an unpardonable moment…are you seeing the market going down evenly or is there a sector getting hammered more than the others
Citigroup under 30 at this point is pretty ridiculous. MS really hurting too. They tried to hang w/ the rest of the market but their stock price tells the true story.
Surprisingly, XLF has been doing OK. Long quality stocks, short shitty banks has been working.
“c’ didnt pass the stress test…now a gentleman would have to ask does this outrage with JPM thow them into the funnel ? i wouldnt and cant take dimons word for it
Google-search for “Sterilized Quantitative Easing”. For some reason my article-link post on the subject is not being accepted:
“Under the new approach, the Fed would print new money to buy long-term mortgage or Treasury bonds but effectively tie up that money by borrowing it back for short periods at low rates.”
So then how is that QE? Sounds like funding the government or suppressing mortgage rates at the expense of other borrowers/operations.
the fed has stated, that congress should do their job.
It’s funny that people think Ben fucks poor people with his easy money policy when the truth of the matter is they would be doubly fucked if he allowed deflation to run its course.
how? they live in sec 8 housing on foodstamps. if they drive automobiles they must buy gasoline. wtf are talking about? poor people could give a fuck about deflation. they do not own.
The divide between the rich and poor would be far greater if the spigot were turned off.
The system that provides them with foodstamps, sec 8 housing, and access to gasoline is dependent upon continuous streams of liquidity provided by the Govt. Turn that off and you would see mass rioting, starvation, and eventually war.
The govt is not the fed. The Treasury can print super cool dollar bills til its heart content. So if the Fed does QE or not is irrelevant to food stamps, sec 8 housing and all that other nonsense you posted.
Yea, keep telling yourself that.
No it wouldn’t. Deflation is the ultimate closer of the wealth gap. Why do you think investors sit around circle jerking for free money?
Once again I’m back. There is always a few months in the year when I get to tap-dance on the face of inflationtards everywhere
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE84B06I20120512?irpc=932
China delivers big 50 bp rate cut … can u say monday am gap up?
no cant say that because i read it line for line 3 times
my thought is this> seems like they are trying to take care of themselves with this move…but nobody is buying their stuff and nobody is hiring there either ,so they wont be importing or exporting more .. this whole mess is like watching a dog chase its tail…helping greece does no good it is a waste land
BIG news. Bears die monday. Plus Trokia said they will change terms of Greek bailout.
the Trokia news is the wildcard. wtf does it mean?
This too shall get faded. It is after May 1 after all.
they faded the same china news last year. nov 30 was the post news move. stocks floated for a week then rolled over.
Up is down.
good news down. bad news down. no news down. up then down no doubt. may be a trend when the down is lower and the up is also.
How soon you forget when all the market could so was go up.
Sentiment changes on a dime.
that is the problem. sentiment towards what? the emerging, europe, gold, anything not AAPL momentum or old man buffet KO like has been dying for a year now.
QE3 before the elections? You think the Republicans will let that happen?
What do the republicans have to do with it?
Fed answers to no one.
There will be no need for QE3 if Europe can get their shit together.
And if Europe does not get their shit together there will be no need for either Republicans or Democrats we will be basking in the climate controlled, economy controlled and society controlled life according to The Promise of Obama.
We are in deep into uncharted waters, the lead line shows 100 fathoms between the bottom and our keel, although the danger of the rocks lie ahead.
On the other hand, insane people who get a little too much sun and mota on the North Shore of Oahu, go over to Portugal and break all-time wave riding records.
Check this out this short little clip I put together for some relaxation, and the Atlantic oceans powerful beauty-in HD:
http://www.youtube.com/user/WelcomeBackHome?feature=guide
Great vid. Well done! Awesome. On the mainland we are beached with plugged scuppers. Hopelss.
The new site design is unbelievable. Great look and layout. Cant wait to see the social aspect take off over the next few months.
truly a stock pickers market both on long and short side. Hell I’ve made plenty of coin
Europe sucks. This site is still first tier.
ALPHA!
Long time my friend.
happy mothers day, 2 all u mothers!
FED needs to print money to cover the asses of JPM, BAC, C and GS and their overextended derivatives contracts. This has nothing to do with deflation, more to do with socializing (through inflation) the $600 trillion in bad bets.
Looks like Merkel is doing the circle jerkel:
http://www.drudgereport.com/
Alternate: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/13/us-germany-election-nrw-result-idUSBRE84C09G20120513
Germany, France, Greece, Cali, Wisconsin and the US have reversed course and are ready for the new “NO AUSTERITY” plan. The “YES AUSTERITY” plan never worked, (even though no one actually tried it). The “NO AUSTERITY” plan is easier, no one gets pissed off, money flows from one hand to another, from one bank to another and like Scott has been saying for years, mortgage rates will be below 2%. “Rich” folks will be taxed 75%, filling the govt’s coffers with free money, so let’s all get ready for the big party, the whole world is inivited.
Count me in, I’ll gladly pay the 75% rate.
So…..Senor Fly’s forecast, turns out to be true (again)..one big pump & print, that goes around the world, then goes around again, and again, and again.
Yet now, these power greedy sociopath politicians (the have plenty of money-so it’s all about power), like ex-Mossad agent, Rahm Emanuel, wants to create “test riots” at the NATO summit in Chi-town, on the 20-21st.
He left the White House, to go become the new “elected” Chicago mayor, and then he could create a reason for his peep, Obama, to take his shiny new martial-law executive order for a spin.
If all goes as planned (they have warned all city residents to be prepared for a city-wide evacuation)
He will also be able to use their new armed CIA drones. Possibly to kill a few protestors, and show off that new NDAA law, which allows the prez to kill any American, at anytime, for any reason (which he doesn’t even have to share with us)
This is your new America folks, don’t you just love it!
I have been working actively with my local representatives to fix that little loophole in the NDAA.
Senator Merkley (D-OR) just sent me this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WC2ovfb1G0U
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=ng5-VUDcjJ8&vq=large
very nice tune/lyric..
QE3 ain’t gonna happen until 2013.
There is no way the Fed can be involved in something like this during an election year.
The Republicans will eat Obama alive with it as gas rises to $5 a gallon.
The Fed cherishes it’s independence and hates anything that could be perceived as politically motivated.
They may pull some MBS buying or something like that.
We’ll see what happens.
Cash is King!
how come no banksters were indicted, sell stuff to the fed they knew was destined to fail. fan/fred. this new jpm fuck-up shows how we r put at risk, as we back da bullshit.