How to Play a Rising Rate Environment

First of all, we need some bad news in order to get this market going again. Far too many chaps are getting jobs and becoming less dependent upon the government’s tit. The way this market is designed is to keep the working class out of work, while the rich aggrandize themselves through slave wages sought out in China. That’s number one.

Number two, if TLT is going to crush the faces of all the morons who own it, that’s a good thing. Natural order will restore the balance, the chi, and select the milk sop finaglers to loiter about the cemetery, six feet deep.

Number three, if rates are going to rise and there is nothing we can do to stop it, we might as well profit from it. How does one do that? Very simply, indeud.

BUY THE FUCKING BANKS.

As rates rise, the yield curve will inevitably widen and so will the profit margins at your favorite banks. The number one bank stock in this environment  is BAC. My favorite super-regional is SBNY, and I am also long MS and LAZ.

The move in TLT is so powerful it will likely knock the hockey-pucks out of those who are long it, leading to a sustained rally in banks. Grab this bull by the horns and enjoy the rotation.

and idle.

We would’t want you partaking in this free money handout. After all, quantitative easing, the european version, starts tomorrow. We all know how onerous QE is for the markets (rolls eyes).

Today was a big momentum day, with names like BLUE, VSLR, DATA, PEIX, SOL, and WBAI leading the way. Lots of biotech and chinese burrito winners were found. The latter has been plagued by inconsistent performance over the past year. I do not view the move in chinese stocks as something to latch onto. As a matter of fact, you should sell them, always.

I was up just 0.18% for the day, in line with broader indices. I am very diversified and nothing in my portfolio is overweight more than 9% of holdings. With these early gains and overall market strength, I am afforded an opportunity to make a bold move.

After doing a full audit of last year’s disaster, I discovered my trading resulted in 7 down months out of 12. The previous year I was up 11 of 12 months, for a gain of 80%. One of the hallmarks of being a good investor is consistency, which is my main focus here in 2015.

In a world of craven beasts and nymphs, the internet isn’t forgiving of one down year. Your opinions have never meant anything at all to me. As a point in fact, if I were to even discuss this website, or its contents, with Mrs. Fly during dinner this evening, she’d excuse herself from the table and lecture me about “being a child” and “how stupid the website is”. You see, I am your only ally here. Without me, iBankCoin sinks into oblivion and your lives fall into a pathetic mess, one without insight, reason, democracy.

Bonds and stocks will continue to trade inverse to one another until we hit the right numbers. Either stocks hit levels that causes it to plateau or bond yields rise to a reasonable level. The dollar continues to make gains versus the euro, which is an incredibly crowded trade. I don’t play forex; but I hate long dollars here.

Look, TLT has been a great place to hide for the past year. The market has moved away from bidding up speculative money losers, in exchange for larger cap free cash flow generating machines. Because of this change in market dynamics, investors were hurt over the past 12 months.

Over the past week or so, chinese burritos and spec biotech have been running with their socks off. While it’s nice to enjoy these gains and see speculation spreading throughout the marketplace like a good form of cancer, it’s important that you remember that there isn’t a such thing as good form of cancer.

Sell the rips in these names and stay focused on the real companies, who might be selling off a bit here.

Here in the northeast corridor of the United States, snow is part of our birthright. We don’t prance about the beach in the middle of winter with flip-flops, Hawaiian shorts, eating corn dogs. The snow makes us stronger, hardens us from the world around us. Over there in Florida and California, the people are weak, addled by drugs, pornography and lust. They are catamites.

If you’re lucky enough to have been born into one of the 13 original colonies in the northeast, stop complaining about the god damned weather. It happens every year, the snow that is. Another word out of you and I will see to it that you live out the rest of your days next to an active volcano in Hawaii, cavorting with savage tribes and sustaining on nothing more than spam and pineapple juice.

As for stocks, I’ll get to that a little later, if you don’t mind. I have my coffee and eggs in a basket (my favorite breakfast) next to me and would like to eat in peace. Thank you.

So I’m looking over the biotech sector in Exodus this evening and it dawned on me that the higher I went in market cap (I’ve set a ceiling of $5 billion cap in Exodus for biotech. Anything higher is placed in Drugs-Major), the better the returns. Clearly, hedge funds are playing this sector, crowding it to no end. The cynic in me says to run for the hills. Then again, taking into account all the stocks in the industry, it’s “only” up 13% for the year–with many being up more than 50% over the past two months.

But this post isn’t about warnings or throwing wet towels on cool rallies. Instead, I’ve decided to provide you with the tickers of the laggards, names that haven’t performed in line with the industry.

SGEN
JUNO
ACAD
TECH
RCPT
AGIO
PCRX
BLUE
KITE
MDCO
EXAS
FGEN
CMRX
ACOR
KERX
XLRN

I’ve found that when searching for stocks with market caps under $1.3 billion, it’s more hit and miss. The returns start to really weaken under $500 million. On the large cap side, there are only a handful of down stocks, which are ABBV, GRFS, JNJ, ALXN and AZN. Other laggards include AMGN, REGN, VRTX, MRK and LLY.

Botton line: be very careful about overweighting now, especially since the run up has been frantic. But if you are going to do it anyway, follow the smart money, like I did in the past with Randall J. “Fucking” Kirk and XON. Today’s purchase of BCRX was based off the ownership of two highly respected biotech managers: RA Capital and Baker Brothers. I don’t have an edge in BCRX, aside from my arsenal of weaponized influenza.

The above names are food for thought, meant to appeal to bottom fishers, tank suckers, and the cockroaches of the sea.

When a person, such as myself, lectures you about the sort of stocks to choose from, heed the advice and don’t utter a single word. If, by chance, you should see me doing the exact opposite of what I just said, look the other way and know that I am fully aware of what I am doing.

Men like myself, men of letters, have an acute understanding of all things financial. I am what you call “an expert”, literate in the arts of investment, whereas you’re simply a baboon swinging with testicles out off a vine. The expert is permitted to stray from the reservation, for he has earned it, toiling about the fields for almost two decades–learning his task. You, on the other hand, are a complete jackass.

Any questions?

I come to this blog and give you good leads. If you can’t close the leads you are given, you can’t close shit, you are shit, beat it, because you are going out. You think think this is abuse, eh! (extra Canadian) you fucking faggots?

Every single day you sit down in that fucking chair and say the same shit, always whining about what could’ve been. “Oh, if I only held onto that stock, I’d be a millionaire by now.”

You keep this up, many years from now, you’ll be at a bar talking to the other catamites, discussing your previous career in amateur trading, moaning and bitching about how hard it was and how you couldn’t play in the man’s game.

“THE FLY” IS FUCKING BUILT FOR THIS SHIT. HIS BRAIN IS MADE FROM TITANIUM AND HIS BALLS ARE DIAMONDS (no homo). I closed the day up 0.65%, nearing +14% for the year.

I added to NDRM and started a new position in BCRX, hoping the entire world catches flu.

I’m not hating on anyone, believe you me. I have enough of my own problems than to worry about yours. But I want to correct (Extra Delbert Grady) some of you road slobs out there, servile and vulgar creatures seeking attention about the internets.

Stop fucking trying to teach others through your failures. I see this shit a lot and I’ve might’ve been guilty of this, perhaps once or twice, throughout my illustrious internet career. Bog standard, I am “The Fly” and you’re just some booze hound in the shit class. No one wants to hear about your mea culpas, post mortem nonsensical rabble. I will fucking kill you, in real life, for telling me shit like that. You say that to me, on Jupiter’s Stone, I dig into my bag of hammers and split your skull in two!

Let’s hear about your winners, and not the step in shit varietal during a spastic earnings lotto victory.

Naturally, I am surrounded by sub-mentals and all you’re ever gonna do it cite moving average this and breakout from the asscrack that. You know, the world of investing wasn’t always like this. The internets turned every fucker with access to electricity into a technical analyst. When I was starting out, 9 out of 10 brokers spent his/her time after the market closed either getting inebriated or slaving over a bloomberg terminal. When researching, people never gave two shits about a consolidation off the deep-end of a cock-ball. All people looked at was fundamentals and relative strength. When you got on the phone to talk to your investors, you never sold stock based upon some god damned breakout past the elbow of a trending homo-flag. No. All you did was tell a nice, flowery, story, crossed your fingers, and hoped to dear God he paid for the trade before the stock went lower, otherwise you got hit with a reneg and your ass was toast.

Seriously, this culture of failure has got to stop. You’re an American, god damn it. Your country is blessed with the power to exterminate all forms of life as we know it.

Act like it!

Seventy five percent of stocks are lower this morning. Breadth this bad suggests we are going to stay down all day. Any efforts to buy dips in the morning are activities of a child, one who has never learned the lessons of hardship. Nonetheless, this is exactly the sort of day that makes you look around for bargains.

Get your fucking watch lists handy, lads, for they will become useful soon.

At the very bottom of the barrel is aluminum stocks, down an outrageous 6.5% as an industry today. Fuck them and to hell with all commodities. I trade in and out of oil and have stated that I am long until April. Aside from that, I am keenly interested in free cash flow generating machines on sale.

Here is my short list of stocks that I will buy on dips.

AMCX
SSNC
GRUB
MD
WYN
CTSH
ALXN
SBNY
FL

and maybe WYNN and RL.

Gone are the days when you could play Amazonian cell phone operators and sleep well at night. Today, all that matters, and trust me when I say this, is earnings per share, top and bottom line growth, and gross margins. Any other method of procuring stocks is simply asinine.

You’re very concerned about domestic economic growth. After all, rates are so low; it must mean something.

As a bear, I’d like for you to explain to me, the layman, exactly what’s so bad about this investable environment.

Let’s go over the boolish check-list.

1. Low rates
2. Cheap energy
3. Cheap commodities
4. The economy is producing 250k jobs per month.
5. The market is at new highs.
6. Innovation in tech/biotech is booming.
7. Cash levels are at new highs.
8. Earnings are at new highs.

Ok, now it’s your turn.

You can cite high levels of sovereign debt all you want. The simple fact of the matter is the market doesn’t care, as evidenced by rates.

Futures are soft this morning and BABA is pulling a FB on their investors. I fully expect BABA to flush out into the $60’s before recovering. Using Exodus (the second iteration of The PPT), I am able to run models, in an effort to find the ideal traits in a stock portfolio to reach maximum returns. I have no interest sharing my findings with the likes of you, since giving it to you would be a waste. But, I will tell you this: had you simply avoided Chinese stocks, as a whole, over the past year, 2, 3, 4 years etc, your investment returns would be markedly higher.

While it’s true, Chinese stocks offer great trading opportunities, on occasion. Nevertheless, it’s not worth the hassle. Say no to the burrito, every single time.