iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,445 Blog Posts

BEHOLD: This is the Most Bullish Jim Cramer Monologue in the History of Mad Money

I am not just saying that to get you to access the blog. J. Cramer went super fucking retard tonight. It looked like he had rabies, foaming from the mouth, screaming and fucking yelling crazy shit, like ‘mergers and takeover are gonna happen in the oil patch soon.’ Also, and most importantly, Jim wants you to buy everything. He looked like the cookie monster up there tonight, spazzing out over a box of chips ahoy.

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The chemicals are ready to rock and fucking roll. The banks are a dream come true. For the love of dead matadors, he even thinks IBM is ready to turn higher in a very significant way.

Why? How could such fuckery persist on the teevee, you ponder?

Don’t you worry about that shit. Get an 8-ball, and 20 cans of red bull, ingest it all, then BEHOLD the grandeur and the greatness of American crony-capitalism.

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A General Update of Sorts on My Positions, Current Thinking, the Site, and Several Other Items of Importance

Towards the end of 2015, I made a well thought out decision to take a break from the depraved world of money management. Having done it all of my life, and made millions along the way, I felt myself getting burned out, cynical at every turn, completely and thoroughly spent from the emotional roller coaster of having to be responsible for the wealth of so many people that I cared about. For me, the market was no longer fun and I didn’t like the forecast for 2016 and beyond.

I didn’t sell my practice or try to gain one last monetary benefit from the fantastic clients that I’ve had since entering the business back in the late 90s. Simply stated, I woke up one day and decided this was something that I had to do. I explained it as best I could to clients and friends, who took me for a lunatic–walking away from an easy paycheck for the grindhouse life of being a fucking blogger. As you can see by the additional work load I’ve been putting into the site, I have some spare time on my hands and there is nothing that I like doing more than talk shit and trying to help others navigate the murky waters of Wall Street.

Truth is, in spite of the fact that I’ve voluntarily axed my annual take home by more than 75%, I haven’t been this happy in centuries (The Fly is immortal).

My current thinking on the market goes like this. We are in a mini-bull market and emotions are running high. Very soon, people will be walking around the streets naked, or thinly robed, with jars of incense chaperoning their every step, eating grapes and enjoying a life of wanton hedonism. Market tops are always marked this way. It’s natural to get sucked in towards the top. That’s why it’s so hard to time tops. The only way to avoid getting suckered into the drudgery is to remove yourself from the system.

Hear me out. If you’re buying and selling high beta stocks, you’re gonna end up blowing up. It might not be today, or tomorrow. But rest assured, it will happen. A vast majority of the people I know believe the market is rigged. They don’t really believe the economy warrants a never-ending bull run; but they play the game nonetheless–because they’re addicts.

My trading philosophy for 2016 is to utilize the system and algorithms that I created in Exodus. With myself dedicated to trading Exodus exclusively, it gives members a birdseye view, or a better understanding, how the system could be utilized. Like all things that are easy, I have a penchant for making them hard.

I was only supposed to trade the SPY oversold this year. Instead, at the open of trade tomorrow, I will be concluding my final short sale of XLE–putting me into a ludicrous 175% short position on big oil. My risk is mitigated by the time in which I am permitted to hold the position, which is 10 trading days. Nevertheless, I find it somewhat humorous, in a money losing sort of way, how I fixed myself into a fucking pickle jar without even trying.

My methodology is to stagger 25% positions with each overbought signal. Clearly, we’ve been on some demonic run higher, which is lighting shorts on fire. Nevertheless, my basis is $64.02; and after tomorrow’s final purchase, it will be a tad bit higher.

My opinion on the market is very poor. This house of cards will begin to unravel, in earnest, in approximately one week hence.

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The Star of the NYC Play Hamilton Helped Secretary Lew Keep Hamilton on the $10 Bill

I won’t droll on about this. Our leaders are fucking catamites. They aren’t men. They are bookworms and schemers and god damned catamites. Apparently, our treasury needed to be cajoled by the star of the NYC hit play, Hamilton, to keep the founder of American finance on one of its bills.

The decisions, first reported by Politico, will come more than a month after Lin-Manuel Miranda, the star of the Broadway musical “Hamilton,” spoke with Lew about keeping Hamilton on the $10 bill, and about a year after Women on 20s, a nonprofit organization, began a movement to replace former President Andrew Jackson with a woman on the $20

By the way, the play isn’t what you think, my fellow American patriots. It’s a hip hop play, whose case is predominantly people of color, that has been under fire for putting out casting calls for ‘non-white’ actors.

Harriet Tubman will replace the genocidal maniac, former President, Andrew Jackson.

In about 15 years, you will all get to be reminded of how awfully racist America was, when spendthrifting throughout town with your Tubman 20s.

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$SBNY Earnings Disappointment Due to Uber, Cites Deteriation in NYC Taxi Loan Portfolio

I’ve got to admit, I didn’t see this coming. The dots are so easy to put together, now with the benefit of hindsight.

Uber is annihilating the NYC yellow cab, an industry that has been very kind to middle class workers in the city for decades.

I know several taxi drivers who bought their medallions back in the 90s for a song, anywhere from 50-100k. Up until a few years ago, those medallions made them rich, with the price soaring above a million dollars. However, just like with stocks, some unlucky cab drivers bought sky high priced medallions into the hype, leveraged everything they owned to finance it, and are now facing the reality of ruin.

SBNY is a NYC bank, with strong ties to the taxi industry. Those chickens came home to roost today.

Lenders have pulled back support for the $15 billion New York City taxi industry, which has been weakened by the emergence of online ride-sharing services including Uber Technologies Inc. The value of a medallion sunk as low as $520,000 in March from $1.1 million in 2013, according to data from the New York City Taxi & Limousine Commission. Signature wrote off about $4.4 million of medallion loans in the first quarter, and expects the portfolio to worsen “for the next couple” of periods, the company said on a call with analysts.

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Fascinating stuff, right? This is the best business in the world.

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Oh No! Hedge Fund Outflows Most Since 2009

This is horseshit.

Investors withdrew $15 billion more than they allocated between January and March, reducing money under management to $2.86 trillion from $2.9 trillion, Hedge Fund Research Inc. said Wednesday. The last time outflows were higher was in the second quarter of 2009 when $43 billion was pulled out.

Money managers have struggled to navigate turbulent markets, with hedge funds losing an average 0.7 percent in the first quarter after a 1.1 percent loss in 2015, according to the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index.

Simply put, what is 2% of $2.86 trillion? The hedge fund Ceasars are doing just fine.

While I loathe the industry with almost every fiber of my existence, despite being in it, it serves a necessary evil. Rich people need to delegate. It’s what they do. Delegating others to run their fortunes for them is one of their favorite pastimes. As much as people delude themselves into thinking rich people want zero commission brokerage firm accounts, they don’t.

All they want is 10-20% per annum, sometimes less, sometimes more. Consistent returns without headaches. Hence, 2 and 20 thrives.

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U.S. Adds a Few Million Barrels of Crude to Stockpile of More Than 538 Million

Come on already with the horseshit lies about crude and the bullish case for it. Crude was over $100 for years and no one had the slightest idea why that was the case. We were, seemingly, swimming in the stuff. Production was expanding rapidly and demand was flat. I chalked up the price of crude as something to be tolerated, a tax of sorts by assholes in power.

Then prices dropped and forced selling hit markets. Crude got down to the $20’s, at which point Dennis “The Commodity King” Gartman suggested it was headed for $15. In hindsight, those dark days were the best buying opportunities in many, many years. Since then, a multitude of oil stocks have doubled, some more.

What now?

Traders are taking every excuse they can muster to buy oil stocks, even though the price of crude has been rangebound for a month or so. All this is transpiring at a time when Iran, our new ally, is stepping back into the market, adding a few million barrels of crude–per day–to the already absurd supply glut.

“We paid for our barrels with our centrifuges,” the source said, referring to Iran’s acceptance of curbs on its nuclear program in order for Western sanctions on Tehran to be lifted.

“We are going to get our share back. For us, oil is only 12 percent of our GDP. We used to sell oil in the war (between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s) at $6 a barrel.”

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The Iranians are serious about punching Saudi Arabia in the face with jellied donuts.

Is it starting to resonate?

OPEC isn’t cutting supply. Iran is ADDING supply. Russia is operating at peak capacity with zero plans to slow. By my vantage point, the only major oil producing nations that will end up on the receiving end of a giant fucking L are the United States and Canada. To that point, in order to cut production, companies must go bankrupt. When that occurs, losses for the debt associated with those companies will be around 80 cents on the dollar.

At any rate, crude is trying to rally here, on news that we added ‘just’ 2.1 million barrels of crude to storage for the week, upping our stockpile to a mere 538 million fucking barrels of crude.

Our main storage hub, Cushing, OK, is just about full–dangerously close to being at full capacity. As a point in fact, we’ve never had more oil at Cushing than we do now.
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Capacity is 73 million barrels.

Go crude!

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Ford Pays $200k For a Tesla Model X, $55k Over Sticker

It was a limited edition, founders series, car. The Ford Motor company paid up to spy on the competition, paying about $200k for the latest Tesla suv.

These cars are ridiculous. I want one.

“Wow, I hope that investment pays off in some good intelligence,” Michelle Krebs, senior analyst for researcher Autotrader.com, said of the premium Ford paid. “If you’re going to be one of the early buyers, you’re probably going to pay well over list. But that’s significant.”

“We’re going to definitely see more electrification and light-weighting,” Krebs said. “Those are the things I suspect Ford would be taking special note of as they develop their sport utilities of the future.”

Tesla’s first Model Xs are limited-edition Founders Series — fewer than 100 of them were made — that typically go to board members and close friends of the company like Google co-founder Sergey Brin. Those are followed by the Signature Series models, which require a $40,000 deposit from customers and start at $132,000. The window sticker price on the all-wheel-drive Model X P90D that Ford purchased is $144,950, including the $10,000 Ludicrous Speed Upgrade that boasts a 0-to-60 miles per hour time of 3.2 seconds.

It’s worth mentioning that without the economic system called capitalism, none of this would be happening now. The fucking electric car, an SUV no less, can get up to 60mph in 3.2 seconds?!

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By the way, the government is mandating cars run at 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. I like the direction the automakers are going, especially TSLA.

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An Early Morning Fireside Chat

Futures were lower by 60; now they’re slightly higher. This banana run we’ve been on has instilled a sense of entitlement amongst traders, something unseen since 2013. Both 2014 & 2015 were abysmal years, both taxing and filled with misdirection. Aside from the first 5 weeks of 2016, this has been a bullish traders nirvana.

Traders have enjoyed melt up after melt up, with very little repercussions or reprisals. There have been very few pullbacks since February and people are starting to get bold again. The run in crude stocks, as oil idles itself in the low $40s, is absolutely asinine. I see what’s taking place in the market and can’t help but to shake my head–because I know what’s coming next.

None of this propping up can hold. The recovery story is a lie, always has been. It was fun playing the POMO game, pretending that the economy was pistol hot–but it wasn’t. Financial engineering can only take you so far. All hope and responsibility for a prosperous economy has been laid to rest at the feet of the federal reserve. There is nothing left for our politicians to do, as they’ve spent the treasury and more. Fiscal disaster is all but a certainty for a number of western economies, as well as China.

The prime risk to the market is recession during a time of stark fiscal uncertainty, the sort of debt to GDP that disables government from stimulus spending. Sadly, that’s the position we’re in, defenseless spendthrifts hanging onto every word of our Fed overlords, who all but control our economy and country by controlling the supply of money.

Does this seem healthy to you?

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Fears of a January Repeat: China is Plunging Again

It might be a councidence, or not. But something tells me the Chinese don’t want Amercia to become great again.

Trump wins big; China’s stock market slams into a cement wall and explodes.

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“The fear of a January plunge is back,” said Wei. “We haven’t heard anything particular for the decline and it’s strange and surprising that the market is dropping at such a fast and steep rate.”

U.S. futs are off a bit and WTI is trading lower by 3%.

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