Looking for a Guaranteed Trade

My new strategic portfolio is intended to receive all of my best ideas, conviction trades that I often miss out on because I’m too busy trading to and fro. One of my best ideas, if not the very best, is being long US long dated bonds. This trade has been poor and the specter of renewed inflation is always just around the bend ready to grab our legs when we start running. Nevertheless, it’s only a matter of time when we see MATERIAL WEAKNESS in the global economy, from which will bring forth a flight to safety into bonds — cascading yields and general acrimony.

My other dunk shot investment is UBER. People talk shit about UBER — but always use it when in the city. Their brand is unassailable and once they can figure out how to rid themselves of drivers — margins are off to the races.

I am trading extremely light today, since I do believe in my heart of hearts a great calamity looms.

More later, +16bps.

Inside Stocklabs there was a general sense of entitlement today — with members cavorting around the room feeling grande because markets rewarded them once again with outsized returns. There seems to be some confusion amongst the general populace who feeeeels as if this life is supposed to be fun, filled with passport stamps, and feeding until portly and disjointed.

This is a fallacy.

Life is hard and should continue to be hard. You should work until you are dead and travel very little, especially to places that do not have proper civilizations that understand how to produce clean water.

You have been lied to your entire lives and believe your own happiness is paramount to all and that your legacy should only be that of a jovial person who liked to smoke pot and eat cheese with his wine on a Saturday night whilst watching FOOLSBALL.

YOU SIR are wrong and your disconnect from the natural order of things is what is wrong with society today.

I hedged heavily, bled out by 81bps for the session, as the fats inside Stocklabs poked fun at me and pretended to be smart. I look forward to the reckoning to come and the great many pains that will be inflicted upon those who opted to soften themselves before the fires.

I am not focused on trading today, as I deal with day 4 without proper usage of my right leg. I am now incredibly grateful for once having full motion of my right leg and really would prefer if the Gods stopped clowning around with me and permit healing to expedite.

I had gains — but now they’re gone — down 65bps and I’m fully exposed to the perils of risk. I just had to blow out of both ACHR and JOBY for 4-5% losses — who the fuck knows what’s happening in the flying taxi cab space.

Truth is, I am bored of making money so frequently and stacking gains atop of gains without challenge. What am I doing it for? What in the fuck do I get out of it?

Exactly.

Into the close, I’ll attempt to build for tomorrow. My bias is for a continuation of a commodity run — but this trade has been a very stupid one for quite some time now.

One of Russia’s mistakes in the war is not understanding the level of hatred the west has for it. The west blew up their pipeline, sent men and weapons to kill Russians, and yet Russia continued to supply Europe with the materials they needed to survive.

Yesterday’s announcement of the Ukrainian – Russian grain deal ending topped off with missile attacks on the Port of Odessa might elucidate the thinking inside Moscow: total disconnect from the west.

If so, the duplicitous Turks will not be used to transit gas and oil into Europe. And if so, indelibly, Europe will freeze due to lack of natural gas.

This was always Russia’s trump card, but they were too soft to play it. I suppose they wanted their cake and eat it too. But this war has devolved and the rhetoric borders on pro genocide.

Markets are beginning to price this in today, with a major lift in fertilizers, drillers, coal, and anything commodity related. This trade appeals to me incredibly and I’ll be partaking in its bounty.

Pardon the seedy verbiage in this title — but it must be emphasized there isn’t any fear in this fucking tape in a world rife with risk.

The VIX is now sub $14 and the US/UK/URK blew up the Crimean bridge last night and the Black Sea grain deal was canceled by Russia — and let’s not forget the Pentagon just dispatched a destroyer and F35s into the Straight of Hormuz to check Iran. We also, if you weren’t paying attention, sent more troops to Syria.

It doesn’t matter what side you’re on in this war. Markets have concluded Russia is losing and America is easily winning without fear of escalation. This is perhaps a grave disconnect from reality, which can cause some severe drawdowns if anything to the contrary develops.

NEVERTHELESS, like you, I slavishlessy obeyed the tape and finished +93bps without any hedges into tomorrow. The only difference is, between me and you, I am wholly convinced that doom, or whatever you want to call it, looms right around the corner.

Here are some stats for you.

Stocks with market caps over $100b are -7% on a median basis over the past 52 weeks.
Stocks with market caps under $1b are -55% over the past 52 weeks.
Mid cap stocks from $5 – $50b are -11% over the past 52 weeks.

Generally speaking, the market has rewarded mega cap monopolies and following the previous path of FANG. We had a brief period during and after COVID where small caps busted loose and it left the mega caps in the dust. But that bubble popped and if you’re only focusing on the smalls, you should expect to be disappointed.

Presently I am 45% cash, +105bps, one small hedge.

Bears got a little excited on Friday after a bad session where risk was removed from the tape. But lo and behold here we are again SHOOTING THE FUCK HIGHER amidst a frenzy. People want and like the deals. I am +55bps with mostly cash now.

I have been hobbling around on what I imagine to be a TORN MENISCUS. I of course will never visit a doctor or get surgery for it — but will instead recover in my own way. I am sure a great many of you FOOL have gotten surgery for it because you’re stupid and your doctors fooled you out of your money. I will not fall for such trickery and will do my own version of physical therapy, which entails letting it heal for a week and then lots of flexibility exercises. Before you know it, I’ll be running the 40 yard dash again, as if I were trying out for the NFL.

Breadth is 70%, focus is on tech. As you were.

I was looking forward to playing some pickle ball in the 94 degree heat yesterday. That might sound like sarcasm to you — but I do like to be active and I like the feel of the hot sun on my skin. When I was younger I’d take the sun and bask in it for hours — but now in my late 40s I generally avoid too much sun due to its deleterious effects.

I took my 20yr old daughter and wife to play and was really excited since we haven’t played in months. Usually we go for tennis; but we’ve been absent from that too — busy with life and all sorts of distractions.

Ten minutes into the 2 on 1 match, me dominating them, my knee gave out and now I’m hobbled. I probably have a small tear and it’s preventing me from twisting my knee. I can walk at about 1mph and feel generally stupid for injuring myself in a sport most preferred by geriatrics.

As a boy I’d swing from trees like an ape, play baseball 7 days a week, tackle football without equipment on the concrete, and a varying assortment of running games with my friends. Now I can’t even maneuver 3 ft to my left at 10% speed without injury.

There is an old saying that applies here “youth is wasted on the young.” And I know I’m not “old” per se — but I was younger once and I can tell you that I much prefer to be younger than wiser.

You hate to see it you bastards; but you cannot stop me. You try to stop me — but it inevitably fails. I get it — it’s annoying to see someone, such as myself, sashay through every god damned market with ease and poise — and yet there you are fucked in your lowly positions and confused about what to do next.

Let me show you something now.

Here is the industry page inside Cocklabs and what it basically is telling you is all of the coolest and best “hot stocks” got blown the fuck out today. Before you head off making assumptions, I will tell you that more than 200 stocks fell more than 5% today. It was a drubbing for anyone stacked with risk and patience.

Does this mean it’s over?

No. It’s just one day. But every market tops the fuck out somewhere. This is as good a place as anywhere else, as Jim Biden cavorts brainlessly sniffing children and ordering American reserves to Europe.

When I said “recourd high” I meant it.

I closed with 10% TZA, 5% UVIX up against what I determine to be a risk averse portfolio stacked with low beta. By the way, this is how I both avoid massive drawdowns and miss out on major rallies. I simply remove risk when things get dicey. More often than not the market rallies huge and we’re back to fresh highs. But sometimes, every so often, PANDEMONIUM busts loose and we dive lower amidst angst and fear. Since I live for those days, I rarely, if ever, miss out on the opportune to get involved on the downside pin action fun.

I will have you know I remain, inexorably, at recourd highs. I sit amongst Kings and hold court viewing jesters fumble over themselves; but know that I act in the concert of Kings and know exactly what I’m doing at all times.

Year to date gains stand at +48%. How can that help you make money from now until forever?

Quite simply, and I mean this sincerely, I never lose. I might go through dry spells of inaction, frustrate those who mirror me with lackluster days when markets are up 1,000 and more. But I never lose.

My recourd speaks for itself.

This is where it started in an experiment testing out the tools inside Stocklabs.

And this is where we’re at, pal.

I hate to come across as scammy — but when talking about money there really isn’t any way of coming across as reposed. But I’m starting a new portfolio at $40k — for more longer term best ideas of mine. Truthfully, I think my sweet spot is tactical trading and intra-day scalps. But I am capable of wearing many hats and will take this on for members only of course.

I’d like to give you free things — but quite frankly giving them to you for free would be like throwing them away. They’re for members only.

I’m 80% cash, 10% TZA +50bps for the session.