18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
The market is going thru a sundry of issues now. While it fetters out what it wants to do, I’ll be here buying perfectly legal and very healthy drugs. The more you smoke, the healthier you get.
I’m already long NBEV, NEPT and TLRY and have now added to CGC.
What wonderful charts!
With CGC, this is a high confidence trade for me. As a matter of fact, should I lose money on this ordeal, I’d be willing to chop my own head off on live television. This is just to show you my level of commitment to the stock game. How many other bloggers are willing to remove one’s head, just to prove a point?
ZERO, I bet.
At any rate, all of my SAAS stocks are lower and I am very sad faced about that. I did sell my TZA hedge for a 2.5% loss and now find myself saddled with 40% cash, 100% confidence in the cannibai drug trade.
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:41am ESTComments Off on Futures Are Soft; But Expectations Are Hard AF
I know many of you are saddened by this morning’s news — Sears has been shot dead and is now bankrupt. What will America do without the haunted hall of Sears, festooned with bad appliances, ugly clothes, and filthy mattresses? More importantly, once the stores are finally shuddered and closed for good, what will the shopping malls do with the space?
How about laser tag? That’s always a fun thing to do. When my kids were younger and liked to do things, I’d take them to a laser tag place in Jersey and we’d run around like animals for hours — Fly being a sniper and all — making the kill because I was part of a team, an elite squadron of laser tag shooters, and we needed the win. Now the kids parlay on their phones throughout the day, gossiping about nonsense — living the life.
Futures are soft this morning; but you can feel the Autumn winds settling down now and the brisk coolness of October moderating. It won’t be long now until stocks reverse and barrel higher. Can one barrel higher?
At any rate, my favorite stocks to watch will be pot (TLRY, NBEV) and a wide array of SAAS stocks. To be able to select good stocks, as opposed to bad ones, isn’t important now. Everything will shoot higher in a convoy. The trick now is to time being “all in” perfectly to maximize exposure to a bottoming out tape.
Saudi Arabia and the United States have a very curious relationship. If you look at it on face value and how friendly they are with Israel — it makes no sense. But why bother trying to understand the machinations of world leaders? Let’s play the game and see where it takes us.
In response to growing calls to punish The House of Saud for potentially murdering a Wapo journalist, Saudi Arabia issued an official statement, and an unofficial one via proxy. The proxy statement is a threat.
“The kingdom affirms its total rejection of any threats and attempts to undermine it, whether by threatening to impose economic sanctions, using political pressures or repeating false accusations,” the government said in a statement released to Saudi media. “The Kingdom also affirms that if it receives any action, it will respond with greater action.”
Turki Aldakhil, who leads the Saudi-controlled Al Arabiya television news network, warned Sunday that U.S. sanctions could ignite an “economic disaster that would rock the entire world.”
“If the price of oil reaching $80 angered President Trump, no one should rule out the price jumping to $100, or $200, or even double that figure,” Aldakhil wrote in an opinion piece on the Al Arabiya website. He said the fallout could drive “the entire Muslim world into the arms of Iran.”
If Saudi Arabia think they could get away with it, they’re probably right. The idea that oil skyrocketing higher is a concern for the US is a joke. We are net producers of crude and I believe it is in America’s best interest to see oil skyrocket. So let’s play the game and see where it takes us.
Buy refiners.
The US refiners source oil domestically and will be gifted with a unique situation with the price of Brent running way higher than WTI, should we sanction the Saudis. Remember, the refiners source in WTI, but retail in Brent. Hence the blow out in Brent vs WTI becomes pure profit.
Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:06pm ESTComments Off on Gameplan for the Week Ahead
Being very oversold, we should get a nice lift and resumption of the previously scheduled bear rally. Having 35% in cash and 10% allocated long TZA, I am either going to add to my TZA position and reduce longs or the opposite. Much of that will depend on the tone of the tape. While I sometimes pretend to know exactly what’s going to happen, more often than not I am simply making decisions in real time — watching the tape, drawing from my experience and using Exodus to isolate ideas suited for investment.
My hunch is gap lower on Monday and then a rally into the latter part of week, providing succor and confidence to an otherwise weak and very fat investor public.
I will sell my TZA on Monday and then add to some longs, and most likely sell all of those longs by Thursday — booking immense profits, and then segue back into TZA awaiting crash.
See how I have it all figured out?
The week will be exciting, fluid, and I’ll be on my fucking A game. Get inside Exodus and join the fun. Invest in your god damned trade, you miserly son of a bitch.
I enjoyed last week, immensely. The down ticks were exhilarating and made me remember how much fun the market is when it’s behaving like a market, instead of a rigged cesspool for the rich. I also had a good Friday, with gains in TLRY, NBEV, DOCU, NTNX, NEWR, OKTA — and a 2.5% rally in the quant.
For the week, naturally, I lost money. My losses, however, were limited by the fact that I had limited my exposure to the market and because I was disciplined enough to stop out of my longs before they did some serious damage.
I was going to do a post about how much money I am going to make when the market finally repairs itself and boast and brag and chortle about how superior a trader I am, to the likes of you. But that’d be self-serving, and also boring. You’ve read a thousand Fly posts like that and it only serves to make you laugh.
Pretend you’re a monkey and you keep seeing other idiot monkeys slipping on banana peels, falling down the trough and into the crevasse, where they end up breaking limbs and eventually perishing. That’s how I feel when I bear witness to some of you investing. Even though you’re not telling me what you’re doing, having been doing this forever, I can feel the danger and the care-free regard for risk — in your endless pursuits to become rich.
By the way, money only takes away problems — it won’t make you happy.
Back to the subject at hand. I know what you’re doing and how you think this will play out — but let me be the asshole to tell you now: YOU’RE NOT GONNA GET RICH TRADING STOCKS. Wealth is hard to attain and this iteration of the simulation is set on difficultly level 8, meaning you have to earn your money; and when it comes to stocks — it will take a long time for the gains to amount to something meaningful. I always tell people, the fastest way to zeroing out your account is trying to increase it by 1,000%.
Sure, you read online by self-professed gurus, of grande stories — high school drop outs, C students, attaining Gatsby like wealth, driving lambos, all by whipsawing in and out of stocks. While those instances might occur in real life, let me be the one to tell you, you’re more likely to be struck dead by lightening, whilst bathing in your tub, than getting rich trading in and out of stocks.
The only way to get rich in stocks is by compounding returns, over a long period of time, diversified, and managed position sizes.
How do I know this?
BECAUSE I FUCKING KNOW IT — GOD DAMN IT.
Did you see the correction last week? Any idea how many people got wiped out?
I have over a thousand subscribers in Exodus and I’ve received email after email about extreme hardship due to the recent slide. Years worth of progress down the drain, all due to avarice, greed, and temporary insanity. I know most of you mean well, and some of you do not get enough oxygen into your brains like normal people, but will you please stop swinging for the fences? Fly is older now and doesn’t really care about notoriety or getting people to visit his blog. I just want to see everyone do well and not have to go thru the pangs of misery, a feeling that I am all too familiar with.
I’ll make this my final post of the day — a headline my kids can see when they get home from school.
I bought some TLRY here — because it’s about to bust loose — Kool-Aid man style. Markets made a nice recovery and we look like we’re heading back to the highs on the Nasdaq. For the day, I net increased my long positions, via purchases of DOCU, COUP, TLRY, sale of TQQQ, purchase of TZA for insurance — just in case we barrel into hell come Monday.
I’m 35% cash, attempting to be patient and wait until the direction is very clear. Sure, we’re oversold and the market should go higher — but I don’t expect it to abide by my exact timeline and neither should you. The big money will be made buying into falling knives; and the easy money will be made once the battle has been won and the psychology is better.
See you on Monday and be sure to click on the Exodus link to take a free trial.
A 400 point open ruined. All of your hopes and dreams dashed in yet another market crash — calamity strikes and it’s coupled with cataclysm. What to do? Should you simply sit there like a boxFAG and preside over your net worth sinking? Is it un-gentlemanly to interfere with your investment during the day? As you well know, the most indecorous human beings alive are day traders, people swinging to and fro in futures contracts — zeroing out their accounts every other year as a matter of tradition.
My Bubble Basket is still higher by 3.2%, in spite of the Russell 2000 being down 0.6%
Gains are being evaporated and major psychological damage is being done now. This isn’t margin call selling — but program selling hitting triggers and moving out of the way. The way I see it, nothing should hold this market together into the late hours. People are deadly afraid of another drop and the weekend offers nothing but respite, since there aren’t any news events on the calendar that can change investor psyche.
I’d like to give you better news and I hope that I am wrong — but I’m fairly certain markets will drift away into the oblivion and beyond today. Your weekends will be filled with regret and fear, memories of better times will haunt you and you’ll pine for the past, as if it was a lover who slipped away.
The time for half measures are over. It is your duty to hedge now, into the 3 o’clock hour and hold those hedges into Monday — because being oversold to this degree and not stopping is how crashes happen. Remember, crashes happen during periods of extreme uneasiness, not joy.
I bought some DOCU this morning, a stock down more than 20% the past two weeks. I have a special SAAS buy list and I intend, at some point, to buy all of them.
Thus far, things are going quite well and stocks are really soaring. I see there is a little selling now, most likely by FUCKHEADS who didn’t cover their margin calls yesterday, thankful for the respite today. I’d be shocked if this rally did not hold. As a point in fact, I am willing to decapitate myself on live internets, should this rally unravel and spoil.
Presently, I am 50% cash, angling towards buying more if we dip today.
The NASDAQ is on pace for a +160 open and the Dow +400. Don’t gaze into the screen too hard, or you might get enamored with what you see and end up playing yourself back into the poorhouse. This is a rally of the reflex varietal. For a day, the good times are back. Trump is winning trade wars again. The bears are getting their dicks cut off. And, most importantly, we, as distinguished gents, get to enjoy profits on the long side.
Sec. Mnuchin is out with comments this morning.
“Markets tend to go too far in both directions,” he said, adding the U.S. economic story is “incredibly positive” and inflation is under control.
“The fundamentals are still very strong,” Mnuchin said. “The U.S. economy is strong. U.S. earnings are strong. I see this as just a natural correction after the markets were up a lot.”
There’s really “no new information in the market” on inflation, interest rates, or trade, he argued.
“[Trump] doesn’t feel that he has to attack at all,” Mnuchin said. “The president is concerned about the Fed raising interest rates too much and slowing down the economy. And those are, obviously, natural concerns.”
Powell is doing a “good job” at the Fed, Mnuchin said, adding Powell “understands the regulatory environment” around the financial industry. “We took bank regulations too far in the other direction” since the 2008 financial crisis.
I ran a poll last night on Twitter to see what people would do with a +100 Nasdaq open. Here were the results.
I’ll tell you what to do — be wary of the ‘retest the lowsFAGS.’ They’re relentless and always get their way. Three months from now we’ll look back upon this time as an ideal opportunity to buy cheaply. Right now, we’re in flux and unsure what the fuck is going on — ’tis the nature of markets.
Word of advice: don’t chase a +160 open and if you could book some short term gains — do it. We might jump on Monday too, so bear that in mind before you get back into the FAZ mobile, or one of your retarded VIX instruments.
Let’s see if it sticks. I recall plenty of times being up big in the overnight session, as men like @Diddy suck the profits from others clad in pajamas, only to see it open down in a very big and disastrous way. Part of the good news is CNBC is out shilling like motherfuckers again.
In other news, here is the latest response to my Twitter poll on whether Dr. Benjamin Bernanke should come out from the darkest corner of his estate and conduct a hostile takeover of the Fed, in order to enact another round of QE.
SHOULD DR. BENJAMIN BLUNT SMOKING BERNANKE CONDUCT HOSTILE TAKEOVER OF FED AND DO ANOTHER ROUND OF QE?
I think it’s clear, the people have spoken. We demand change, and hope that it happens.
Before you start getting bearish and get to thinking there isn’t a bottom to be had in this current squall, understand how stupid you are and that all markets bounce, even the one’s embedded in depression styled economies.
According to Exodus, dating back to actual data measured from 2009, tonight’s score is the 6th lowest score of all time. More importantly, our % of large caps rated as bullish is now at its 3rd lowest rating ever.
Just 1.7% of large caps are bullish.
Bottom line: A gigantic rally will occur either tomorrow or early next week. When it happens, sell and don’t get lured back in for another week or so — because we will retest the lows.
