Back in NYC

I dropped my daughter off in college at Boston, bought he some supplies and made sure she was all set. Whilst at two different $CVS stores inside the city, I bore witness to 4 people ransacking the place without ramifications. In the last looting I witnessed, a small Asian security guard made a large black homeless looter leave, but without giving back his loot.

We then circled down to my favorite niche place in the northeast, Stonington, CT and Mystic, CT — both splendid places with genteel people and no looting.

After several more hours of drive, I am now at a family members house directly on the shithole island of Manhattan. It took me 2hrs to find a parking spot and I’m exhausted.

Tomorrow we will take my mother in law to do whatever she wants to do, shopping, visiting sites, making sure she’s ok. We’ll be here for a few days and then I’ll go to see my mother, sister, cousin and then back down south by Wednesday.

Basically I won’t be trading or blogging too much. In case you’re thinking I’m enjoying myself in luxury and comfort, just know that I’m not and instead imposed upon with a dreadful penance. But I’m ok with that, because I’m accustomed to toil and do not feel comfortable when comfortable.

Off to shower and then bed.

CIAO

A boring tape is a tape you do not sell short. Although the NASDAQ is lower today, I’d venture that this is, ahead of a holiday extended weekend, nothing more than the calm before the storm.

I am, at the moment, fully long without hedges. I might grab a hedge by the close — but probably not. I depart for Boston and then NYC, so I will be busy catching planes and making sure Mrs. Fly doesn’t make me late.

Barring a late day collapse, I made more than 3% for the week, a refined move higher after weeks of surrender. I look forward to re-establishing the long tradition of winship back at these confines. It should be noted that Stocklabs nailed the trough on 8/16 and those following the signal made coin without having to break a sweat.

I wish you all well and hope you find happiness and fortune in this market. But just know that whatever salients of success you progress through pale in comparison to what The Fly transcends into on a regular basis. It’s good for you that I, as a point in fact, discuss markets in a public venue so that, perhaps you, might glean from me small tidbits of greatness and wisdom — like chum bandying around a great white shark.

Signing the fuck off — happy Labor Day work slobs — be well.

The trans people at the Federal government keep trying to get away with it — but they’ve been apprehended and will not be let go. The payrolls report was a scam, has been a scam since 2020, and that’s all there is to it.

Note that every single monthly report since 2020 has been REVISED lower. Zh has the full rundown.

Sadly, there’s not much to do with information such as this, but lament about it online to a blind and deaf audience. Markets are somewhat fucked this morning, with a large move higher in yields and a collapsing of stocks at the open. I was fortunate to have runners in my quant, up nearly 150bps. That account and my trading are now 100% cash. I will make my monthly quant allocation after 12pm.

As for the balance of the day, you will have to contend with buying stocks as rates surge — something extremely retarded. For this alone, I want no part of it and might not do much today.

I closed the day +33bps, but down more than 8% for August. I started off bad and remained bad until this past week. Overall, the NASDAQ and SPY were down 1.55%, but the small capped $IWM shed 5%. It was a poor month for stocks, leading up to, what is traditionally bad, September.

Here is the data for September over the past decade.

Because of my mean downside bias, I hedged at 17% of holdings in $TZA — with directional longs of the mega capped to tera capped varietal. We are shifting here — I can feel it. The tone of this market has been poor — but the mean reversion to the upside from the recent depths of our lows turned out to be successful.

What I am suggesting is, for whatever reason — markets are adhering to the status quo. Bullish. You can pretend it isn’t — but it is. We might see stocks take off tomorrow, further confirming my theory. I do, however, believe that September will not be accommodating to markets as we really get into it. The earnings season has been mixed: ok for tech but really bad for retail. Very soon the focus will shift severely onto the consumer, as we fast approach autumn and the holiday shopping season.

I make no stern commitments. I am open to all ideas, a sailboat guided by the winds and not obstinately following a pre-destined direction.

Just when you thought it was safe to go for a swim — the sharks are back and biting into legs. The market has legged down the past two hours — giving up 2/3rds of its gains. But need I remind you, the US 10yr is still down 3bps and the market is still up.

I had to hedge up fast to preserve my gains. I failed to save them all — but have +24bps of gains left. I am pretty sure the lot of you are down now — staring into your bullshit PC wondering what happened.

I will tell you what fucking happened. We are in the latter stages of Pax Americana. A shift of grand proportions is taking place and you’d be wise to stay out of their vindictive radars, else end up like Joe Biggs sentenced to 17 years in prison for MUHHHHH Jan. 6th. As you well know, January 6th was the worst American disaster since the Civil War, when American patriots exercised their state’s rights and sovereignty and were genocided for it.

American history is an ugly ordeal and it’s best not to think about it too much. It would be better to believe in all of the fluff and cry upon seeing the American flag, holding nothing but love in your heart’s for the founding fathers and present leadership who want nothing else but to preserve freedom and democracy around the world — advancing civilization with dignity.

I won’t attempt to delve into truths — except for one undeniable fact. Government produces nothing of value, other than overseeing its people. The people have produced extraordinary advances in industry, science, and have created the envy of the world — a place where everyone wants to come in order to succeed. We still attract the very brightest of minds. A brand like America, after all, is a very hard thing to destroy. But like $DIS — they are doing a great job at tarnishing it. Without fairness and safety, America doesn’t have the same luster it once did. Luckily, we now attract the very best from nations who have failed states, so we can draw from them aggressively without pause. A generation or two down the line — we might regret it. But everyone reading this will be dead by then, so who cares, right?

33% cash, 10% hedged the rest long with a bias for market recovery into the close.

All it took was for the NASDAQ to sperg out +400 to the upside in unabated buying for yours truly to, once again, feel like a genius. Instead of being downtrodden and thinking about the worst, I’m now leisurely sitting in my parlour listening to classical music — pretending I could, in fact, conduct the symphony if I so chose to do so. I could, in fact, do almost anything.

Now with gains of +66bps for the session, I have increased my gains for the week to nearly +4%. To idly suggest that I am back is of course a grotesque understatement. I now view the lot of you, my competitors, as bowling pins and I am holding what looks like a giant bowling ball. HOWEVER, I am not holding a bowling ball — but a fucking cannon ball and I am going to fire it at you and tear you to pieces!

I jest — relax — I’d never shred you to pieces, otherwise who’d come to read my missives every day?

Here is the bottom line: stocks are higher and oil is busting loose. There is presently an end of month fervor by the permanent bull class of investor who is interested in deals. I suspect the buying may continue; but I am cautious at 50% cash.

With a little more good fortune and confidence, I will next perform great feats that will both shock and amaze.

I am talking my book here — because if I don’t — who the hell else will do it? I won’t bother offering picks — but overall direction which I feel is definitely up. For the bear-tards out there grappling with this new reality — consider it to be the “calm before the storm.” You can still dream of big fires and America’s financial system collapsing — even if it’s not happening. They can take everything away from you — but your dreams.

On Friday I depart for Boston to drop my daughter off at college. I will then rent a car and drive down to see family in NYC — where I intend to hate the place and its filth. Only people who live in NYC and cannot leave it like it. They will tell you about the wonderful food and the variety and how the theater is “so good” and this and that — as if retarded and not knowing those same things exist elsewhere sans the crime.

It really is over and the societies genteel MEN created have been disabused and ransacked, discarded by those who want more. They work towards its destruction because it reminds them of their failures and the vindictiveness of it all is bad for the soul. I left NYC because I felt it was bad for my family. All you had to do was look around, really look around, past the skyscrapers and the glitz, and the $100,000 cars and $5m apartments and see that there was nothing good happening there.

My family settled in NYC in the early 1900’s and they always “loved it” and suffered in poverty and raised their families under hard conditions — but they had pizza and bagels and the theatre, so it all made up for the endless night’s of pain.

As for markets — yes I believe we go higher and have positioned fully bullish. They tried to knock the market down in August and largely failed to rout it so it’s going back up. You may not like it, nor do I, but that’s just the way it is.

Before we crash in September, I have a strong feeling of bullishness coursing through my veins now. I am uneasy and have been plagued with nightmares for weeks — but shares of $NVDA must go higher.

I’ve also SOLD MY $BTC — because the conditions of doom from which I bought it in no longer persists. The days of ‘Cash Sorting’ and regional bank runs are long past us and in the future we only have kinetic energy and tumult and toil and spin and yarn and entanglement and joy and sadness and horrors — but no bitcoins.

I have seen the future and in it is a gray landscape strewn with people flailing and scraping and clawing — all seeking for the same thing — the essence of life and truth without animosity — pleasure seekers misguided by the two faced devil.

I can see to it, and I am invested alongside the empire, that my personal fortunes will grow rapidly like a sunflower in late spring, only halted by my own apprehension and the cowardice of my desire for self preservation. After decades of trials and errors, I still manage to repeat the same trials with the same errors — but with less rapidity thanks to a far more persistent tenor to my drum beating.

Into the close and beyond it, I shall endeavor to give it my very best — into the fires and through it — no matter the expense. I am rich in this regard and maintain a magnanimous demeanor about myself — with a singular purpose to leave a trace of something, anything, of importance in my wake. I trade stocks and I blog and I read and I cook and I am a master barista and amateur bartender and I have a whole library of books that I read from and I attain what I consider to be important information about things and places and people — who had causes and feelings of love and hate and made a grand spectacle of themselves living.

I can think about all of this and ponder it very seriously over an estate pipe and whiskey or I can just fuck off and buy $NVDA and tweet all day and night memes about Biden and receive Elon Bucks, from which I can draw from and buy more $NVDA and live simply very wealthy and happy.

Let’s pretend you gave up trading and resigned yourselves to only trade when Stocklabs flagged oversold. You’re old now, partially retarded, unable to trade like you once did. How would this system function for you?

Here are the signals YTD.

The data for buying and selling after 10 days.

3/10: +4.15%
4/5: 1%
4/25: 2%
6/23: +3.8%
8/16: +2.7%

If you only did 5 trades the entire year using the OS, you’d be up in the range of +14%. On the current signal you’d have 1 more day of holding until the cycle completes. Now let’s pretend you didn’t buy $SPY but instead bought $SOXL — because semis are the place to be in 2023 and everyone loves them.

SOXL price on OS/gains

3/10: $14.05 / $16.57 +17.9%
4/5: $15.92 / $15.2 -4.5%
4/25: $13.20 / $13.92 +5.5%
6/23: $21.89 / $24.32 +11.1%
8/16: $20.53 / $23.55 +14.6%

Total return: +44.6%

Think about how lazy a fuck you could be and how much money you could’ve made in 2023 if you only had a god damned Stocklabs membership at $99 per mo?

INDEUD

Look at me strutting into this fucking place — smacking people in the face who get in my way. I know what you’re thinking — “look at this internet son of a bitch.”

How can I prove otherwise? Should I meet you with pistols at dawn and demand satisfaction?

All you need to concern yourselves with is my winship.

LOOK AT IT

If you look closely you will see a $TSLA focus account, which likely gets you really mad — because Elon’s words make you really really upset.

Ha! Fuck off again.

Listen to me, my losing streak has concluded. It was fun to relate to some of you losers out there, feeling the pangs of defeat and being on the losing end of so many trades for the balance of August. But like all things in my life, things need to keep progressing from lower left to upper right. I will have you know, the Stocklabs algorithms called the bottom on 8/16 with an oversold signal. You’re probably skeptical of that too. Trust is a high IQ trait and people who do not trust their fellow man belongs, mostly, to an undesirable haplogroup.

In closing, FUCK OFF and congrats to me for making all of that money — extremely well deserved in light of the generosity I display each and every day.