Next Week Will Decide the Fate of Markets for 2023

I finished the sesh +44bps with a long bias, hedged at 16%. For the week, I managed a gain of +1.3% and for my quant +1.9% — which is fantastic when taking into account the Nasdaq is -1.5% and the $IWM -2.5% for September.

The quant, which is a monthly allocation driven solely by the Stocklabs algos, is heavily invested in oil stocks now. We have seen a divergence between tech and oil — which is noteworthy and something to keep an eye on.

I left a net bullish book because of the shenanigans. I am accustomed to them and expect them often. After a week of hell for traders, it would not surprise me in the least to see stocks quickly bust loose to the upside on Monday, only to later fall victim to relentless selling.

We’ve got a fucking head n shoulders happening here. Doom awaits.

Markets are bouncing today — but it’s more bullshit than anything else. Small cap breadth is sub 50% and people are jimmying stocks higher based upon rates being FLAT. Buddy — you’re gonna need a lot better than that to extricate the plebs eating canned-slop out from their housing troubles.

I know — the people in NYC are paying ALL CASH for their $5m apartments. Meanwhile, outside of the fucking lunatic asylum we have people paying 60% of their salary for rent — unable to even contemplate the concept of buying a home.

Also in the real world — Brent crude is $90 and we’re just getting started. When the sun dims and the clime chills — you will reflect upon $90bbl as a cheap bargain — something to be enjoyed at the pump. Ultimately, you’re all tax slaves to pay for Ukraine. We must, at all costs, stop Putin from becoming Hitler 2.0 and taking selfies in front of the Eiffel Tower. Meanwhile, the Russian army is having difficulty expanding their bridgehead a few miles in the Donbas. Of course we can have it both ways — eat cake and have it too.

California just announced transgender history month — the first state to recognize our medicated friends who like to dress up in Mommies clothes. I didn’t bother to look at the month they proposed — but I’m assuming October — for obvious reasons.

I’m +48bps because I am a professional. I used to do this for a living — unlike you bastards who shit-trade in between large bites out from your sandwiches. I am adding to hedges and will make sure to keep them over the weekend — mainly because it’s September, after all, and I’d really hate to miss out on a great spectacle of a market crash — traders FESTOONED all over their computers — screens painted red laden with brain matter.

Listen to me.

Stocks YTD are down, in spite of what the homosexuals tell you.

Unlike you morons, we track this shit inside Stocklabs.

Over the past year, the median return for all stocks is -3.7%. Oh, you want to see 2023, do you?

Choose a time frame you bitch.

So how is the fucking NASDAQ +39% YTD?

Because $NVDA +216%, $META +148%, $TSLA +104%, $AMZN +64%, $GOOGL +53%, $AAPL +37%

You do realize those same stocks were fucking annihilated in 2022 yes? Those gains are in fact RETARDED and if you’re buying into those returns — you yourself are RETARDED and low IQ.

Now I know what you’re going to say next.

“Oh Fly, fuck off you piece of shit. You’re always coming on here declaring the sky is falling and it never does!”

But that is not true — cunts. The sky has fallen so many fucking times since I’ve been blogging here, circa 2007. All it does is fall, recover, fall, recover etc. We have been collapsing for decades, interrupted by soaring stocks buoyed by FOMC easing. I might’ve just muddled the waters with that scattered thinking there — but believe me when I tell you nothing is copacetic.

It’s true, I want stocks to cascade lower — burying the permanent bulls in sell tickets — margin calls depleting their funeral expenses to the point of having to be cremated out of necessity. But I play ze game and pretend to go along and get super bullish when feeling gregarious.

I closed +33bps heavily hedged against my longs — haven’t lost a fucking cent since this market began collapsing again.

I think it’s important we discuss the difference between the American businessman and the government. Your average businessman doesn’t give a fuck about politics. His goal is to increase shareholder value, create a nice environ for his employees, and leave a legacy. The government by definition is PARASITIC — feeding off the businessman to fix things — solely for the purposes of getting re-elected. Since we are in late stages corrupt Pax Americana — we see government meddle much more and tend to assign our hatred to markets because of it. But remember, the progression of our civilization and tributes to the greatness of them built grand cities and things that helped people live better and longer. The government didn’t do that — you did.

The loser gets angry at successful people and rattle their fists and demand government seize their money to “give everyone else a chance.” WRONG. Even with insane levels of nepotism in America — capitalism is and always will be the best form of government. All you need to do is leave people alone and they will create wonderful things.

In America, we do not give people chances — those people need to take it — at least that’s how it used to be. I suppose now we are delving into Reverse Darwinism, rewarding the weak whilst suppressing the strong. This is why I believe Pax Americana is over. But my point remains — people good, government wholly and absolutely bad.

Bulls will point to the market and cry “we are oversold — you must buy stocks.” While I do agree, we are extended to the downside in the short term, long term we are wayyyyyy the fuck up.

The bears will point to Mitch McConnell, Biden and all of the other fucking retards and say “this cannot last — sell short now.” But to fade Biden is to vote him out — not to sell short $AAPL. I think we all get confused about that some times. This isn’t Trumpenomics or Bidenomics — this is American ingenuity.

I only wanted to say these things because they’re true and also because I regularly shit on stocks and call for their demise. This doesn’t mean I won’t still do that. I do believe the interest rate issue is a far greater calamity than Joe Biden will ever be.

Into the close, I might bulk up on secular stocks with a hedge.

I see lots of things that make me believe “this is it — this is the fucking crash”. But then I kindly and quietly remind myself the trannies in DC always win and the banksters in NYC always find a way out and rig this market higher.

I’m up 15bps thanks to a very light and hedged book. I’d go 100% short here only if I was insane. Since I like money and making it, I’ll probably remain in cash and then look to buy dips here.

Why?

We are oversold. In spite of pax Americana being over, they always find a way to save the stock market. This time will be no different from the others. HOWEVER, I am open to suggestion and might even acquiesce to my more carnal feeeeeeelings should rates begin to jimmy higher.

I live here now, always have lived in the Newark airport, meandering about in search of deep fried delicacies and cheap beer.

I made 13bps today and presently operate on 1 hr of sleep. It’d be nice to be home or even on a plane — but instead I sit on a hard wooden chair and I wait. After I waited long enough, I shift to the right and wait again and continue to do this until the meaning of life loses its purpose. I’m to stay here indefinitely and just deal with the 55 degree environ in short sleeves, wondering about the warm sun outside and what it might be like to sleep in a bed.

I expect a sharply rally soon, based upon the laws of Stocklabs. I’ll be closing out my shorts in the AM.

I had a long night, slept about an hour and now need to return the fucking rental car and then spend the next 8 hrs in the god damned airport waiting for my fucking plane. I also left my favorite sunglasses at the god damned restaurant last night, which means I’ll have to drive right into the damned sun squinting with the flap down on 1 hr sleep absolutely hating my life in thick traffic.

But I won’t complain — as it is not befitting of a gentleman such as myself.

Markets are meandering about and I have very small positions on, lightly hedged. If I attempted to trade heavily now, given my current mental state, I’d probably wipe myself out clean by noon.

Today is a day that I let the emotions and the angst bottle up inside, grin and pretend all is well. I’d like to destroy this fucking market and dump it in Staten Island with the rest of the trash — but I cannot control the lot of you who constantly buy dips and pretend any of this bullshit makes a bit of sense.

Having said that, I’m gonna buy some more $SQQQ now.

Good day —

I’m here in Bay Ridge Brooklyn now where the women are in FULL BURQA attire and I’m not even mad at it. You can either see whores clad with nothing, trannies with rainbow hair, or conservative women in Burqas. Your call.

I made 44bps today because I was short biotech and really hate the market. If rates are heading up, you’d be wise to sell short or face the horrors of a bottomless pit of a market.

Let me remind you — things are worse than you think and the fucking Ukrainians are being attrited to the point of absolute collapse. As such, NATO is in danger of becoming a grandiose laughing stock and with it the merchants of death who rule over it.

Hopefully in our lifetime we can see America freed from the occupation it’s under and we can once again hate on each other for the merits or de-merits of our person, casting behind identify politics and runaway individualism.

Off to dinner. I’ll be back to fill trading tomorrow.

I’m double parked waiting to encroach on new journeys in NYC today. Meanwhile, it appears doom encroaches on stocks, specifically because the US 10yr is soaring +8bps and the dollar is careening higher against the euro +0.8%. With oil up, it appears we have a small inflation scare again.

Stocks are somewhat tepid, down a little but not enough to instill fear. I do propose we knife lower in the afternoon. I feel it would be apropos.

I’m nearly all cash with only a 5% $LABD position. Since I’ll be out and about having so much fun, I doubt I’ll be able to really trade — seeing that I’ll be as happy as a NAFO shill beating off to HIMARS launchers.

Truthfully, markets should not think about going up with rates up. Don’t even think about buying this tape.

You must believe me when I say that I spent an entire day in a personal hell, a series of events thrusted upon me in what appeared to be sadistic ritual — but it wasn’t. For some, it was just another day — spending quality time with the very worst person alive today — a person as we speak staking out his own house in secret in order to catch prospective burglars for the purpose of shooting them dead. This is a person who used to convinced cocaine dealers in the old days to cook it into crack to affix 20 yr sentences to them out of fun. When he got back from his 2nd of 4th tours to Iraq — he boasted about all of the people he killed and even showed me the pictures of dead body trophies of his. As a boy, he told me he used to drown cats for sport, so pardon me if I stick to the point that this is the worse person alive today — and I’m related to him by marriage.

Aside from that, I had my first meal at 11pm, drove around stupid and insane mountain ranges with little fucking windy roads built by morons for hours, fearing I’d splash into one of the walls and over the top and down below, innumerable times. Then, after reaching Manhattan again, I was entreated to thick plumes of marijuana and water hydrants busted open and children robbing people in the streets and people milling about high on fucking crack and all sorts of degenerate shit.

It’s true, I don’t like degenerate shit and I don’t like being around it either. It’s also true I have to wake the fuck up before 7am to move the fucking car and then spend another 2 hrs fighting lunatics for another one.

Luckily I leave this hell hole tomorrow for another one: Brooklyn and then Staten Island.

I can’t even think about markets.