I’ve Seen This Stupid Shit Before

Long ago, before some of you were born, there was a place and time in this country when young Fly and his idiot broker friends would buy stocks because they split their shares. I even wrote two stories about my ordeal. Go ahead and see what happened to me.

Shares of TSLA are higher by 6 to 10% today, depending on when you tuned in and the only explanation is stock split. Apple, the world’s largest company, is up 3.2%. Most stocks are down, led by speculative small caps. Dare I say, the cosmetic nature of weighted indices is fucking retarded?

I can tel you this with 100% certainty, at some point this fucking bubble is going to blow into 1 billion pieces and your arms and legs will be strewn apart across your office walls. Your wife is going to leave you and your kids will spit in your face for zeroing out the family nest egg. This is, without question, SPECULATIVE EXCESS.

Knowing full well how this ends, I am also KEENLY aware how irrational people can be and for how long. This can last a long time — but never take your guard down. No one is safe and anyone can get it.

Yes, that was also a double entendre.

Breadth is a giant dicksucker again at just 31%. That means if you randomly bought stocks on Friday, you’re down without a question.  I have several irons in the fire heating up and feel somewhat good about my prospects for today, but none as optimistic than my position in ETH.

Cryptos roared over the weekend, into the Summer of Love — as Americans beat and shoot one another over meaningless politics. Last week Ethereum got down into the $370s. Today it is north of $430 — no big deal and no need to discuss further. It will be higher 12 months from today.

My strategy for the next hour is food related. I am thinking croissant, eggs, and coffee.

DEVELOPING…

This rampant soaring infectious disease that has a kill rate of less than the chicken pox is the greatest social experiment of all time. To preface this article, I will disclose what I’ve been doing during the lock-down and social distancing.

Because I am a gentleman first and always, I don a SKULL FACED fucking mask — pirate fashioned, and I always behave with courtesy — because that’s what civilized humans do. Wearing the SKULL FUCKING MASK doesn’t provide me with any comfort, nor does it greatly disturb me. But it might disturb you. I find the whole mask hysteria to be somewhat hilarious — but a necessary evil whilst struggling to FLATTEN THE FUCKING CURVE. Plus, I truly and thoroughly despise the flu.

I exercise basic hygiene slightly elevated to conform with the times. I clean my hands more often than usual — UTILIZE HAND SANITIZER SPRAY to destroy the COVID viruses that attempt to enter my vessel. Also, because Mrs. Fly is a bit an extremist, we wipe down all groceries when they come in. To be honest, if it were just me, I’d say fuck it and do nothing. Then again, I am an Alpha plus and tend to err on the side of courage. But I have to address something I’ve seen throughout this ordeal, for the sake of posterity.

The mask has overtly become a symbol of conformity and has been politicized. People on the right think it’s 100% shit; but people on the left suck the masks dick. People on the right have no problem drinking beers and talking to each other like normal times — but the left is stuck in this hysteria and avoid contact — unless they’re rioting together to kill the police and overthrow the government — or seeking out gibs at Nordstrom.

I’ve bore witness to endless people donning masks inside their cars while driving and I felt like Stunt Man Miking into the them — but I have my kids in the car. I’ve also seen people walk into their homes with their masks on and often wonder if they fuck with them on too. I know parents who refuse to see their adult children because COVID and I know of many people who refuse to leave their homes.

This scourge we are dealing with has become a perversion of logic, with illiterates on both sides claiming to understand science they’ve never been trained for. Admittedly, I do not know what the fuck is happening and only take precautions for the sake of my children. I am, after all, a fatalist and see little purpose in going the extra mile to cede my manhood in exchange for a few extra years on this god forsaken shit-heap of an existence.

With lockdowns in place and furloughs being dished out like candy, my question to you is — are you consuming enough? Have you taken some of your savings and directed it towards unneeded things in order to satiate yourselves from the pangs of boredom?

Gone are sports, new movies/shows, plays, any form of theatre and gatherings in large groups. We’ve been relegated to hermit-hood where we sneak outside to isolate a piece of meat and if we’re lucky a roll of toilet paper, fully masked, and then we hurry back home to pretend life is exciting online.

Another question for you is — are you at all concerned that the shortages we faced in March and April might soon repeat, especially if COVID-20 busts loose early next year? Having said that, are you consuming more than usual to stockpile flour, papered towels and rolls upon rolls of toilet paper?

Have you, by chance, taken the opportune to SEIZE UPON clothing sales, now that they’re destitute and pathetic — unable to sell their wares in large shopping malls?

Are you consuming enough? Have you decided upon a new STAYCATION — where upon you will sit idle in someone else’s home, via AirBnB in order to find a morsel of variation?

I understand there is a shortage of cars now, since they’re not being made anymore. Are you plotting a new car?

Markets have priced in record consumerism and pent up demand for all items. It has long been known to me that poor people do not mean much to America or the ruling class. They are, more or less, non active players in all of this and easily assuaged to riot and cause mayhem in order to destabilize things. Through this instability, new order will be established and new winners made. The divergence of wealth between the rich and the poor have never been this wide and the overall impact on the economy from poor people have never been so meaningless. Most poors offer a negative equity situation to the country — strong enough reason to not care so much as to SHORTEN their life expectancy.

I’ve had an uneventful week of trading, erring on the bland side with pussified positions and quick fire losses coupled with small winners. For me, it was a rather limped dick week and I hope to regain my steel next week.

During this week I was immensely busy with the development of Stocklabs as well as setting up an office for myself deep within the caverns of House Fly. While this home is temporary until I move into a proper estate for a man such as myself, it is large enough to accommodate a proper 500sq ft office, for which I am pleased to most gratefully accept as a way to escape the horrors of two bitch dogs upstairs who do nothing but bark and menace all day long. Down here I am secluded and I have a rather nice set up — big assed screens in portrait and landscape modes — big faggot television and of course music. All of this tech has resulted in a fucked trading week — which goes to show you. You might dress up a whore in Chanel — but she’s still a whore.

Next week “The Fly” returns to the market place with a full hard and erect penis. I will be doing all of the fucking, and much much more.

Today we completed portfolio management functions on Stocklabs — presently 15 months into development. I am not fucking around with this data platform. I am taking my time and creating something world class, with zip fast functions and sophisticated algorithms — added layers of data atop layers of data. Everything you could possibly want in a platform to perform your task will be here. You can monitor our progress via the twitter account.

Good day.

So this is how the rest of you feel — lost in the gravy of the market — trying to run but your feet are ostensibly glued to the ground. Today I sold DUST for -9% and PLAY for +12% — both overnighters. Truth is, most of my trades the past two weeks have been middling to bad and I’ve been attempting to extricate myself from the morass of plebian living.

While I do relish the idea of my back being up against the wall, fighting the good fight, underdog persona, I’d much rather get back to 100% intra-day returns.

I’ve been trading stocks since I was a small boy, practically an infant. While you were jumping over fire hydrants and getting slam dunked at the park, Le Fly was reading the Wall Street Journal. I am equipped for the long haul and know, as a matter of fact and point, that it is only a matter of time before I break loose again — punching jaws of my enemies the fuck off.

Big numbers out of OKTA, WDAY, VEEV, and NTNX. Expect some more gains out of the hottest sector the past decade, SAAS. With one of their own, CRM, now entering the Dow 30 — I suspect nothing at all can stop them.

I had some AYX — but pared down my holdings today. I now own ZEN and like it for the hundy roll. Look to position into other software related names tomorrow, in spite of their absurd valuations — based off momentum.

Most of the protesters in the streets today, ridiculously, imitate art seen in movies, and sadly, a few have gotten shot in the head dead as a result. Very few of these people give two shits about social justice and are only there for the show — the never-ending soap opera to keep themselves busy during an otherwise moribund time. This is their Normandy. While misplaced and entirely delusional, one common theme amongst most agitators is their desire to “eat the rich” whilst at the same time participating in wanton consumerism, aspiring to be rich themselves.

You’ve got to be honest with yourselves, are you mad at Jeff Bezos because he’s accomplished what you never could — or is there something nebulous about Amazon? Are you, per chance, a hero for the local retail store, whilst at the same time burning it down? Do you, per chance, deeply care about black lives whilst at the same time willingly ignore black on black murders?

The hypocrisy is rich with narrative and while I do not believe a fucking cop should ever shoot an unarmed man, period — I don’t ever advocate for hate against anyone — especially when painting with a broad brush. Not all black men are criminals and not all white men like the NHL. When you demonize people — you justify their downfall — and permit evil to exist.

Believe in nuance. People can be both good and bad at the same time. Your buddy might be an absolute prick — but he might also have a soft spot for animals, or elderly people or people in need. I’ve known many people like that and I harbor prejudices like all normal humans with a conscience of his surroundings. I am, at the end of the day, bullish on humanity. The only issue for me, honestly, is if I want to spend my time in a country so wrought with civil discord? I do not sense what you’re seeing in the streets will dissipate any time soon and is more likely to explode with rage in the coming months.

As for markets, it’s an absolute clown show — disconnected from any semblance of reality. The trends are now shifting rapidly, making it hard to keep up, and the angst of trading at the top end of the range after such a large melt up is palpable. As such, I’ve sold most of my positions and have north of 65% in cash.

This could change rapidly, naturally, as I am trading all day long, every day, inside Exodus. Eventually, like always, I will find a seam and catch it early and boast about my oversized cock and ego.

Until then, ciao.

Things getting back to normal stocks are outperforming again this morning, sending the COVID19 vaccine stocks into the sewer. This has been a fairly consistent trade for more than two weeks, accentuated after Russia claimed to have a vaccine cure.

Meanwhile, breadth is once again dreadful and the sense of being trapped is once again all around me. Since I am fully invested, I have an anxious vibe all around me — mostly because the price action on the screen doesn’t mesh with reality.

On the other hand, selling short has been a suckers bet of magnanimous proportions since March. My plan, for now, is to manage my positions — harvest gains and cut losses when necessary. What I ought to be doing, what I am likely to do, is raise some cash and prepare for some sort of fucking downside — because the never-ending ride higher doesn’t feel the same and the narrow nature of this rally is bound to give way soon.

Just my two cents.

As I work thru my trading slump, I have been thinking about the longer term future of retail and commercial RE, both significant parts of the US economy. Because Americans are malleable and adapt well to change, we have see a remarkable shift in consumer and workplace behavior due to COVID-19.

Companies have learned they can maintain productivity whilst ceding office space to the Vacancy Gods and increase profits. Amidst the retailers benefitting from this shift, AMZN, W, OSTK, ETSY — FCF has surged. Companies like WSM with significant mall square footage just reported good numbers and said online sales now make up 75% of their revenues. What we are seeing here is significant. Companies were forced to produce online and have done so with great results.

How could retail REITs survive? What sort of environment are we heading into for commercial RE, when companies can perform just as well remotely?

The grim scenario creates a barbell trade for online operators vs physical and then extends into banks who have exposure to CMBS. There is massive potential downside to CMBS — only held up now because of the Fed.

Eventually, the vacancies will mean something and those fucking bonds will have to be properly marked to market. Until then, up we go because the clown show continues.