CRYPTO LOSSES EXCEED $2T, WHAT NEXT?

The way tops work is most new money chases at the top because of the underlying asset’s popularity. The vast majority of people out there are presently racked with losses. Some of you are up big from much lower prices and have been reduced by 60%.

What to do now?

I cannot tell you what to do, only what I’m doing. I stopped trading cryptos several weeks ago and only kept my ETH position because of the fucking nonsense I was seeing with cummies and garlic coins and all of the fucking Moon coins that made a mockery of the asset class. The problem with cryptos is lack of regulation. The people making these scam coins should be placed on the Catherine Wheel and beat until dead.

The beginning of the end started when DOGE jumped from 7 cents to 20. After that, the SHITCOIN market got very frothy and then moron Musk tried to make DOGE into a real thing while undermining the very essence of crypto: bitcoin. That was the end and I hope you laughed heartily watching Elon made a fool of himself on SNL.

The way tops work in the stock world is we get bailed out by central banks and V shape rally up. Unfortunately for cryptos, you have nothing but levered bets to the upside and a shareholder base that is very green and naive and poor.

Rule of thumb is 90% down is where you go all in. We are presently down 70% in numerous coins, – 60% in ETH. Down 90% on ETH would put prices at around $500.

Absurd?

Yes. Alas life is absurd so deal with it.

I’ll continue buying ETH and 4 other coins every month. My cost on ETH is in the 200s and I was always disappointed to have such few coins at 4K+. Well, this is a chance to add to the position and build upon it as the asset class washes away the weak hands and wipes away the excess. My best guess is recovery by Xmas.

Another day born from hell, designed to frustrate — false starts and oddball endings repeat over and over again. I am not exactly churning myself to death — since I was +4% for the week — but I haven’t been crushing either. I am currently FLAT for the month and some fucked for faces will believe it to be a good thing since “the markets have been soooo hard.” Please. This market is like cottoned candy clown shows in comparison to what I’ve seen. Back in my days, when I was starting out, we’d get our brains blown out for breakfast on $1 spreads and make up for it by lunch, only to lose 15/16s in a market order near the bell. This version of the market is much more conducive to making coin.

Imagine being old enough to have traded Intel Warrants.

Going forward, Stocklabs will be launched officially next week. We are running beta trials now and if you’ve used Exodu in the past — trust me when I tell you you will be extremely surprised and pleased at the upgrade. We have improved the algos, created new ones, portfolio functions, price target analysis based off valuation data + earnings and sales estimates, volume tools that flag for rapid increases to let nothing escape your greedy claws and much much more.

You’ve been reading for a while, or at least many of you have. At a minimum you see with 21,000 posts deep that I am passionate about this shit — being the most prolific finance blogger this country has ever known. Stocklabs is second to none in terms of being a VERY PC trading room, a place to bring the family for a BBQ, wolf down a few hotted dogs and fuck off for the balance of the day drunk off wine coolers.

Ciao

Mining for Bitcoins is no better than opening up fresh coal mines in Pa, only much much worse. We must of course STOP all cryptos for the sake of the (wink wink) environment. Yes please plebs, the US govt goes thru great lengths to make sure your currency is produced in a very ECO FRIENDLY manner. You should immediately sell your BTC and convert back to dollars…to save the planet from melting iced bergs.

China is the bitcoin bears biggest friend: as long as bitcoin can be mined in China it is "dirty"

Once China bans bitcoin mining there, the anti-ESG case collapse

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 21, 2021

Today China reiterated their intent on stopping crypto mining, news that has been released for 10 times over the past year. On this, CRYPTOS paused their ascent and then COLLAPSED. It’s over.

Over in stock lands, I have been making a mockery of myself, trying hard, running fast, breaking a sweat, trying hard again, running fast: +25bps for the day.

My YOLO account was leveraged long UPRO at the open and sold and is +183bps. The quant is +82bps. Aside from my retirement accounts, this is what I managed now. Overall, I have more money today than yesterday, so that is good. But I feeeeel like I blew it because intra day volatility is nil and it’s real hard to catch runners these days. We have a drought of runners and nothing but false starts and FUD.

I am presently 50% cash.

My birthday LOOMS and I will be 45, as good as dead. The good news is, 45 yr old Fly can kick 25 yr old Fly’s ass and can do just about everything better than 35 yr old Fly. I am either delusional (possible) or I haven’t peaked yet, which I do not believe I have. I am, however, in possession of an odious visage, a monstrous display of a humans head. Truthfully, I couldn’t care less. What the fuck for?

Moving on, I will attempt at staving off loss today, although I sense it will be hard, as all of the crypto retards lose their shit. Panic is infectious. Yes I own a shit-load of ETH, but I honestly couldn’t care less. I do not neeeeedd the money.

I had a hard time increasing my gains today, due to the narrow bands from which the market traded inside. Therefore, I increased the juice and leveraged over 130%. I can’t see how I get hurt and look forward to the opening bell so that I might harvest my crops.

Feels like summer trading, slow molasses dripping over a kitchen table in the middle of a corn field in Mid July.

Ciao.

There is a large divergence between the wealth of American citizens and her government. The government is piss poor, run into the ground deliberately by lunatics, while her citizens are grande and rich because she is smart and industrious. The only way to close this gap is to raise taxes and make sure people are paying their fair share. Ergo, and this goes without saying, Biden is going to bulk up the IRS in order to audit you more.

On this news, stocks and cryptos bid lower. This is stupid.

Here is the hourly seasonal data for QQQ during the month of May. Dare I say buy the 1pm dip for the 2pm ramp?

I have reduced my market exposure, 25% cash, portfolio festooned with risk averse plays — OFF THE HIGHS but still +85bps. I will look to trade better and with better methods into the closing hours.

I came out of the gates punching people in their faces, now up 140bps. A few things for you to know this morning.

1. Small plebs were eliminated from their crypto trading accounts last night, liquidated en masse.
2. The NASDAQ is busting loose.
3. Stocklabs beta trials are presently underway.

Check your email boxes and spam folders for your invites.

I am +140bps but cautious not to upset the Gods, since breadth is a flaccid 60%. In order to start dancing on graves, we need an 85%+ breadth day. For now. I tip toe through the markets, taking small gains here, small gains there, ebbing my way towards RECORD HIGHS. Presently, I am +183% for 2021 and there is nothing you or your stupid friends can do about it.

Had you slept in the entire day, you’d think today wasn’t a World War 2 reenactment between the allies and axis powers over dominance of the market. But it was, I assure you. In the end, a stalemate, with the Axis fucks on the run. But the war isn’t over and there is plenty of work to be done.

I reserve my predictions to the trash heap of the internet (twitter) and only tell you this: I am 100% long and nothing can fucking stop me from raging higher tomorrow, in what will be described as a steroid induced melt up for the ages.

Bubbles have popped. Shares of solar stocks have been pummeled into the ground, alongside a pastiche of alt energy and EV names, not to mention everything CHAMATH brought public. In the world of clowns, expect clownery. The latest bubble is pop is Bitcoin — off 50% from highs. We are now either mid- collapse to down 90% or perhaps the worst is behind us. I will not pretend to know where we are since the market is always up to new schemes and gambits. We take the market at its word every single day and listen to it carefully and try not to interpret things via our own biases.

Having said that, something are evergreen. Post collapse, people prefer to delve back into reliable growth names. In our market, that would be SAAS. Stocks like CRM, SHOP, and DDOG are very strong today because they’re real companies with real revenues and growth rates.

As I write this, Fed minutes are talking taper and markets are legging lower. This is yet another reason to be cautious since inflation is hot the Fed and their fucking mandate might tighten the money supply, which is bearish for stocks but you’ll later learn it can in fact be bullish. We will discuss at a later date.

Presently I am -150bps, back near session lows after buying the dip. I had been down just 60bps and was feeeeeeling real nice — but all of that has been washed away and the pangs and horrors of FOMC commentary have now soured my day.

The comical term “diamond hands” was coined by absolute know-nothings on Reddit in regards to their GME positions. Before the GME fever, lads in Bitcoin and SHITCOINville would simply HODL (hold on to dear life). It is the culture with these new type of investor to never sell, no matter the case. Coins like DOGE, seemingly scams, are held by people and fortunes have been made. In all of my years managing money both professionally and on my own I have never come across a more toxic sub-culture for investors. My feeeeelings, however, would have resulted in much less gains — had you and your idiot friends sold DOGE at 8 cents or perhaps never at all purchased GME, as it rocketed to the moon.

Why?

Chalk it up to an aberration, a frenzy. Like everything else, eventually, things go back to the way they once were. In the case of GME, it’s taking much longer than anyone ever thought to collapse and it’s quite normal now to see it trade above $150, as ridiculous as it seems.

Last night Bitcoin, ETH and the gang collapsed and today that selling has continued. The losses are staggering from the top, nearly 50% from a few weeks ago, and we all know when assets are at their highest — the people with least to risk are invested and now feeling the brunt of this reversion back to the mean.

What next?

I would have sold ETH when I started buying it last year at $300, if I was only trading it. The only reason why I was able to HODL with my diamond hands is because I was determined to hold for 2-3 years — just to see what happened. I buy ETH every month like paying a bill and it didn’t take long for my money to double and triple and eventually shoot higher by 17x to equal a sizable fortune. Did I sell? No. Why the fuck not? Because it was never a trade. I am holding the asset for another 2 years, period end of story.

But what if it goes back to $1,000?

If you look back on some of my blogs, I was hoping it would go back to its previous high of $1400 in 2021 and maybe by 2022 it could hit $3,000. My wife bought more ETH last month in the $1990s. I have no fucking idea what this shit will do next, so why bother trying to time it. One thing is indelibly clear, we are now in the midst of a harrowing decline, especially for people who need the money they’ve invested. For everyone else without the pressure of time, this dip is of course an opportunity to acquire more at lower prices.

As for the market, I went to 95% cash due to the deleterious nature of this decline, down 140bps for the session.

We were having a jolly good day up until it all ended. Not sure what the news was, but perhaps it was Pelosi releasing a statement with the intent to BOYCOTT CHINA in the 2022 olympics for “human right” issues. That is rich. This further confirms my theory that Trump’s hard on for China had nothing to do with his feeeeelings, but official US policy. Like a dog, he was instructed to fuck with them and appear to be unhinged. Now the US govt is affirming those feeeeeelings with another round.

I was fortunate to be mostly in cash towards the end of the day, only diving back in for a foray in some materials. I gave back 40bps and closed up 347bps in what can only be described as masterful trading, booking 18 of my last 19 trades for profit.

Into tomorrow, I suspect we will bounce back — but would not be surprised if we faded — depending on the news.

Off to tennis.