Thoughts on the RNC Convention

Placing my feelings aside, the purpose of the convention wasn’t to be revolutionary and the Trump admin part 2 isn’t going to be the great change that anyone on the right wanted. This was a carefully crafted campaign to mold an image of Trump as this grandfatherly, harmless, kind old man. Gone is the acerbic Trump with threats to Mexico and whoever fucked with America’s interests. The only controversial thing he said was that President Bukele of El Salvador was emptying his prisons and sending them here.

If you wanted to win an election this is exactly the sort of convention you run and that’s the deal Trump made: power for his compliance. It’s really that simple and if you were looking for substantive change, you’re not going to get that with Trump 2.

If you love Trump the person and the character, you won via this convention. It rocked zero boats and made staid commitments, in what only can be construed as an out of date and out of touch movement by a party that is supposed to represent the right wing.

Here is the truth: the right wing nationalist do not have representation in America. You have no party to vote for and no hope for change. Is it all horrible and heading wayward down into the depths of hell? Well, that all depends on your level of acceptance to change and how unhappy you are with the status quo because that’s exactly what we are going to get.

America isn’t an idea, but an amalgamation of people who engineered a land of dense forests to make mega cities and the strongest economy the world had ever seen. You cannot deny there is a certain genetic heritage to the founding and success of a people and that is changing now, in Europe and here.

Wake me up when something interesting happens.

It had the appearance of a rally at the open, although tepid and I suppose that was the tell. Following yesterday’s rout we inched higher this morning and whenever that happens, it’s only a matter of time when the weak hands acquiesce to raise cash and then it all comes tumbling down.

The semis are down 10% from their highs, officially a correction. However, those highs are still extraordinarily higher than any previous bull run. We now are betwixt several prevailing narratives:

1. The current President of United States has dementia and will not step down.
2. The presumptive President has policies that were good in the previous administration for the economy, bullish for oil, banks, and retail: domestic oriented names.
3. Confidence has been fractured. We are not in panic mode but the beginnings of what might be a market rout is underway.

I had a 22% $SQQQ at the open and ended selling it for minor gains, while it was down. I have since reaquired half the position and gave up any gains that I had early on, now off by 115bps. The urge to sell short is palpable and it’s always very alluring, the idea of a comeuppance stemming from decades of frustration with the ruling class. I sometimes forget my entire fortunes are intermingled with the exchanges and if being honest I’d risk it all just for the satisfaction of wreaking havoc on this system of perfidy. Alas back to reality, this is only a minor blip in a larger never ending ride higher, fueled by cheap and accessible credit, hegemony, and technological innovation unmatched from anywhere else in the world.

We have the gameplan and you can see it as clear as the water is blue. If you look at what worked in November of 2016 when Trump got elected there is a very specific theme, one that has been picked up by professional money managers now, in attempting to price in a Trump win.

I am sure my colleagues will be angered at me for allowing the Third Estate in on our gambits, but I am a kind and generous person and you deserve money too.

NOTABLE SECTOR WINS IN NOV 2016:

$XLF +14%
$KRE +20%
$XME +22%
$IWM +11%
$UUP +3.3%

Let it be noted, the theme for a Trump victory in 2016 was domestic focus (i.e., small caps $IWM) and a strong dollar and soaring bank stocks and materials. Stocks like $CLF jimmied higher by 60%. There was a palpable disdain for tech and globalist companies, which is why the $QQQ traded FLAT for the month. In other words, there was an 1100bps spread between the two indexes and you can see that manifesting itself now.

Today was a terrible day and I’m afraid there might be a little more selling before we bounce. But we are also pricing in a totally different political reality, one that does not favor BIG TECH and one that might be more conducive with American industrial projects, defense, and demand for oil and materials.

I closed the day down 147bps, now hedged with a 22% weighted $SQQQ position.

Whether it’ll happen or not, the market is most certainly punishing all of the homosexual tech companies who’ve enjoyed peace and prosperity under the censorship friendly Biden regime. You can see it in the shares of $META, barreling lower by 5.5%. There is something to be said about retribution and the fact private prison stocks like $GEO have gone up since Trump dodged assassination.

We are also seeing in the shares of $TSM and I suspect you’ll start to see Trump plays emerge in the tape the closer we get to the elections. Right off the bat, we are seeing banks soar, deal houses, tobacco, oil and residential construction. For example, the entire regional banking sector is +15% the past week and the homebuilders are +14%. We are also seeing gains in industrials, rubber, auto dealerships, machines and tools, farm equipment, and transports.

On the downside is tech, copper (china), and Chinese stocks.

Good day,

I speak to you once again from the future. About a week ago I issued warnings about the semiconductor index and foretold what is transpiring today.

“Well it didn’t and as much as I like $NVDA and all of the other supporting actors in this bubble; it’s going to fucking crash through the floorboards one day and suck the entire god damned market with it.”

At the time of that post the $SMH was +7% for July and now it’s down. Any questions?

Today’s melee is partly due to Trump saying Taiwan ought to be paying America a fee for keeping them alive and partly due to an $ASML miss. But that’s a European company and no one actually pays attention to what Europe says or does. If you’ve ever been to Europe you realize almost immediately that it’s a giant museum with indigenous white people so cucked they’re importing Africans and Middle Easterners to replace them, probably out of boredom to be honest. All of the really smart whites were either killed in wars or moved to America to create the ultimate white super state called The United States of America, which is also being cucked due to various reasons we don’t discuss on this blog.

My point is, Europe isn’t a real concern when it comes to semiconductors or innovation. They don’t invent things anymore. They have decent cars and ok airplanes; but have you ever seen their laundry situation? Most Europeans still fucking airdry their clothes and their washer machines fit like 5 articles of clothing. Sometimes they’ll have the washer/dryer combo thing going on but it’s really bad and not designed for large families, which I guess makes sense because Europeans do not have children anymore. I suppose they’re superior to America with their bidets; but everything else is really just subpar and very menial. I don’t mean to be harsh or mean spirited with my European readers; but you really need to get your act together and start being great again.

I’m down 137bps into this complete collapse in the NASDAQ, which is down by 400. I have a 12% $SQQQ hedge in place and might consider adding to it late on today, depending on how the market develops.

A Trump admin means more deals, means you ought to be long banks and deal houses like $BX, $LAZ, $GS, $MS and $JEF. I realize how suggesting to invest in the system whilst at the same time hating it and wanting it changed might seem contradictory; but alas this is my job and what I do.

It’s sort of like you, an auto mechanic or a T50 street sweeper, always angry and hiding things behind your blackened eyes. If curious as to what jobs best suit you, reference the chart below.

Grandpa Fly was blessed with A10 eyes and was always determined, no matter what he did. I, myself (pardon the redundancy), possess either A40 or A50 eyes, hard to tell since I am color blind. I offer true feelings and true meaning, both clean, white, and bright, all the way. While it’s true, I’ve known some T50s who were nice, I always felt they hid something behind their black eyes. What the fuck are you hiding over there, sneaking around with those T30s?

When peering into an A40 and up, you tend to be looking into the soul of a true and honest person: investors and philosophers.

At any rate, do not show this blog to Mrs Fly, as it might cause something of an upheaval at House Fly. It’s a good thing she never reads the olde blog.

Into tomorrow, 100% long and interested in more, as I am well deserving to receive maximum levels of success and aggrandizement.

It looks like the Russell will eclipse July of 2022 as its best July on record.

You can view it in two ways.

1. Markets have broken out and the risk is expanding into non tera caps.
2. We are extended near the maximum edge of the range.

If the latter, we are ebbing into men reversion territory. In other words, this “might” be a good spot to hedge of reduce risk. Admittedly, I don’t feeeeel like doing that because the gains feel good, as I am fully long +186bps for the session. However, you should be alerted to the idea that the gains enjoyed might dissipate soon, not due to any bearish news or change in sentiment; but merely based upon the laws of mean reversion.

On a longer time horizon, a Trump win is inherently bullish for markets because it boosts investor confidence. Big winners will be banks and oils, but main banks. Expect deals and lower rates, and a runaway ship into inauguration.

I finally got my shit together and preside over at at recourd highs, +16.4% for the year and +155bps for the session. My latest mantra is to trade with just 20% of my assets around a pastiche of longer term, well diversified, holdings. The reason for this is simple: we are inexorably in a bull market and the chaotic whims of intraday pumps and dumps are distractions when crossed against the backdrop of the larger narrative.

I do not want to discuss the RNC circus and have to provide agitprop to my avowed enemies on the left. However, I will delve into the nonsensical economic mumbo jumbo that so many are repeating, blaming Biden for inflation while praising Trump for a great economy.

Firstly, Trump was a major proponent of sanctions on China. Given all of our stuff is made in China, you’d recognize that by applying levies on them that would inflate prices here, yes? That aside, and I will say this for one final time. The FOMC open market operations DID NOT create the inflation we saw in 2022. The Fed has been doing QE since 2008 and it never leaked into the general economy, because the money was sloshing around between big banks, papering over losses. The inflation came when Biden doled out $5t to the plebs during the COVID lockdowns. I don’t understand why that isn’t the main talking point, but perhaps it has something to do with Trump being the Father of the COVID vaccine.

Yes things are expensive. We have high home, rental, college, insurance and healthcare prices. Basically anything that cannot be outsourced is enjoying runaway inflation because the actual value of the dollar is denigrated. Why is is it denigrated? The dollar is shit because it’s being used in deficit spending operations, sent to places like Ukraine and Israel and whoever else needs some dollars. Essentially, the dollar is like an inverse ETF, designed to go lower, which is why $BTC is so alluring on a long enough time line.

Presidents do not cause economic booms or busts but they can instill confidence and that is exactly what Trump did when in office. But him getting in again isn’t going to lower your home prices or rent or insurance because that’s directly correlated to population. We have an open border with too many people searching for too few resources in this economic zone of ours. If you want a cheap home, you’ll have to move to a place where no one wants to live.

One day can make all the difference in the world. For me, it was simply a matter of letting enough time to elapse until my greatness embedded itself in my trading. I shifted from day trading to strategic with a minor in tactical and absolutely crushed the tape, +312bps into the whirlwind of a Trump presidency.

Trump chose JD Vance as his VP and although I hate JD Vance, whatever. At this stage in Pax Americana, I am willing to be tricked just once more before I give up and never vote in this system again.

We will be back to basics inside Stocklabs and iBankCoin, focusing on some longer term ideas with some short term trades asides. I view this market as wholly bullish with very little reason to sell, other than to take profits. For short term trades, I like $TNA, $CHWY, $RUM and $AMC. Even though I like Rumble short term, I also view them as a leader within the dissident right and growing rapidly enough to warrant long term interest.

The market is pricing in a Trump victory following the botched assassination attempt. You can see it clear in Biden friendly sectors hammered to pieces:

SOLAR down 5.5%
Cannabis down 1.5%
Alt Energy down 1%

On the upside

Banks +2.8%
Oil and Gas +2.3%
Trucking +2%

There’s a lot of speculation pertaining the shooter, who he was and how it happened. The disbelief is rooted in the perception that our government is competent. But you’d be wrong to think that. I’ve stated this opinion on numerous occasions and believe they’re fucking idiots, not the hand rubbing geniuses out of super villains cartoons. They can and will be supplanted by smarter people with more vigor. Whether the secret service was in on it or simply allowed it to happen is the only questions that needs to be answered now. There is no scenario where one or the other wasn’t the case: wanton conspiracy or wanton neglect and if the latter was it malicious neglect or simply a matter of morons freezing up when it counted most.

Either way, the net result will be a second Trump administration. Although I previously said “I would not vote” for him or anyone because I didn’t believe any candidate would properly address America’s problems; given the recent events I am willing to be tricked again and will be voting for Trump.

Reason being: someone who survives an assassination attempt might be empowered to do things normally not available to him and might be possessed with purpose to see it through. This development is bullish for markets.