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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Listen to Nokia or Not

It is hard being a bear. Frankly, “The Fly” is not accustomed to betting on world destruction or “wishing” for doom to strike those who bet against him. However, his superior “calculator brain” tells him “fuck the world, it’s going lower.”

Take a look at [[NOK]], shall we?

How do you want to spin that bad news?

Let me guess:

NOK blows. [[RIMM]] rocks.

Fair enough. That makes sense.

How about the [[MER]] disappointment? Spin that.

Hang on, I’ll do it for you:

It’s a kitchen sink quarter. Soon, they will be writing up those toxic securities, leading to 10’s of billions in balance sheet gains.

Thus, the market should rip higher, again.

Also, a splendid argument.

How about the fact that MER posted a larger writedown on their Alt-a paper (good credit mortgages) than subprime? Does that concern you?

Answer: Fuck no. Just buy a Chinese solar burrito stock and do a few lines of coke.

Anyway, I’m a bit busy here today, dealing with all sorts of tedious issues of business. In the meantime, be sure to bottom dip some bank stocks down here, since the worst is now behind us.

In all seriousness, I will be raising cash today, covering my shorts in [[FED]], [[DSL]] and [[WM]]. With the proceeds, I will redouble my efforts in loser positions.

More on this later.

UPDATE: Mr. Mortgage explains the Alt-A issue:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeBSWI9sF8 450 300]

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Fuck Me; I’m Dead

Today was the most egregious trading day of the year for “Dumb Fly.” As expected, I get all sorts of pile on type giving me financial advice in the comments section.

Oh Lord, I wish doom upon those who bet against me. Nonetheless, the banks weren’t up too much. However, should [[MER]] “delight,” expect to get your balls eaten by a jackal.

On the long side, I have [[RIG]], [[AAPL]] and [[VMI]] going on. Without a doubt, the spastic retards from VMI will disappoint with tonights earnings, considering Mother Market is into punishing “The Fly” with vicious losses.

Long story short: I’m not worried until 13,000.

NOTE: Because I just wrote that, the market will be at 13,000 tomorrow.

Good Day.

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Putting Things into Perspective

It’s rather amusing to see long time bears, all of sudden, bullish on banks. Keep in mind, these same people thought the *true* break up value of [[CENX]] was $2.

The Dow is at 12,550. This is not a breakaway market, but a rally within a bear market.

I will say this over and over again, until I’m blue in the face: it is impossible for the market to sustain a rally, with oil at $115, Natty above $10 and food commodity prices at record levels.

None of the above is a result of pure demand, but inflation. Do what you like. I will stick to my guns, protect my positions, via long hedges and bank on gold as a stable source of funds.

We now have a situation where earnings expectations are elevated. Any misses, like [[GE]], will knee-cap the rally.

With regards to Ag:

Forget it. These stocks have gone parabolic. Eventually the sector will come crashing down, but not yet—most unfortunately.

Bottom line: It’s only a matter of time when investors realize the monumental headwinds in the way of growth.

As for the banks:

Buy them? Please. Their businesses will never be the same. Sell them into this rally.

NOTE: Every two weeks the market rallies 200-400 points in a day.

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Portfolio Imploding Lower

I see you “donut fuckers” chuckling, not laughing, at “The Fly’s” most recent set back. You’re over there, in your bullshit pleather chair, chewing on some tobacco, polishing up your Confederate flag, chuckling.

Keep in mind, if any of you said the shit you are typing in the comments section to my face, I’d be sure to have a jelly donut punched into your face, knocking your eyebrows clean off.

Today’s losses is resulting in bodily harm to others (trader/servant) at my office, as the marble paperweights and the bullshit printers get tossed around. Before the day is done, I will need “Frank the Contractor” to come here and put up some new sheetrock.

However, don’t worry, I’ll be sure to tell him to “take it easy” on the materials, since our friends in China and India need them.

It is very tempting to give into common sense here and cover my shorts and get long. All of my ag shorts are simply running away, while my bank shorts squeeze the fuck out of me. Truly an arduous situation.

To be careful, I will reduce my downside exposure—in order to finance better places to put money, such as betting against banks.

If I could get [[SKF]] under $105 again, I will back up the tank and put some in it.

As for [[SMN]]

I would like to see the inventor of this God forsaken ETF arrested and tried for “crimes against humanity.” Do not follow me into my folly.

However, one mans trash is another mans treasure. Nonetheless, it blows goat balls.

Finally, [[VMI]] reports earnings after the bell. I have a small position. With worldwide famine occurring, they would have to be absolute fucktards to mess up this quarter.

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Inflation is Dead!

According to the Government, inflation rose by a tepid 0.2% in March, not even close to giving a fuck. God willing, oil will march its way up to $400 per barrel, effectively poleaxing all of those poor fuckers who clog up NYC city streets with their bullshit “shitmobiles.”

Think about it, dear Sirs.

When gasoline is “vasolined” up to $30 per gallon, it will cost like 600+ bucks to filler up. This, as you know, will eliminate traffic and leave only the rich in cars. There will be no more delays during the morning commute to work. Clear sailing.

Plus, think about this pal, our steel manufacturers will no longer have to waste their time sending product to the losers at [[GM]]. They can just put that stuff on a ship and deliver it to China. Without a doubt, [[DRYS]] will trade up on that news.

Looking at some of the news, I am pleased to see the dollar at a record low versus the euro, since most of my savings is in gold/euros. The sharp, precipitous “death fall” of the dollar is good for U.S. corporations, like [[KO]] and [[CL]]. Fuck all of those people who want to “see Paris for the first time.”

[[BLK]] missed earnings, but who cares?

[[JPM]] beat and warned of more credit problems. However, Mr. Dimon is just talking shit, so that he can buy [[MS]] or [[MER]] for 2 dollars per share.

[[WFC]] smashed estimates and have demonstrated to Wall Street that they are true pimps, despite the fact that their capital reserves stand at a paltry 7.3%.

[[INTC]] fucking ripped the head off of their guidance, which, inadvertently, was lowered a month ago. Well done Sirs at Intel. You’ve mastered the ol’ “fuck you analyst, you’re dead” routine.

It’s a fascinating thing with INTC. Lots of poor folk are without rice, due to high prices. Apparently, those same people are forgoing food, in order to stockpile INTC chips. That is very shrewd thinking on their behalf.

After all, the Chinese are known for thinking 100-1,000 years in advance, unlike us backward Americans—who only think about what’s for lunch.

See, the Chinese are thinking “hey, forget about buying rice and feeding the family. Let’s just buy these chips from INTC. After we die, these chips will continue to increase in value so that future generations may be able to afford $1,000 per bag of rice.”

Regular JP Morgans they are. Or may I say, “regular Jamie Dimons.”

Finally, I expect to see the market take the fuck off on the 11.9% decline in housing starts newz [sic]. This, as you well know, is good news for everyone, except the poor schmucks who build houses for a living. What’s wrong with those idiots? Hasn’t anyone else told Mr. Joey Bag-o-Hammers that all available steel, concrete and construction equipment needs to be preserved here, so that we may supply our friends in China and India?

Geez.

Long [[DGP]]

NOTE: China reported inflation rose by 8.3% in March, up from 6.6% in February. And, they announced they will raise the reserve requirements at their banks to 16%, from 15.5%—which is a far cry from WFC‘s 7.3%. All of this is phenomenal newz [sic].

What is this “good news Wednesday” or something?

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