I see you “donut fuckers” chuckling, not laughing, at “The Fly’s” most recent set back. You’re over there, in your bullshit pleather chair, chewing on some tobacco, polishing up your Confederate flag, chuckling.
Keep in mind, if any of you said the shit you are typing in the comments section to my face, I’d be sure to have a jelly donut punched into your face, knocking your eyebrows clean off.
Today’s losses is resulting in bodily harm to others (trader/servant) at my office, as the marble paperweights and the bullshit printers get tossed around. Before the day is done, I will need “Frank the Contractor” to come here and put up some new sheetrock.
However, don’t worry, I’ll be sure to tell him to “take it easy” on the materials, since our friends in China and India need them.
It is very tempting to give into common sense here and cover my shorts and get long. All of my ag shorts are simply running away, while my bank shorts squeeze the fuck out of me. Truly an arduous situation.
To be careful, I will reduce my downside exposure—in order to finance better places to put money, such as betting against banks.
If I could get [[SKF]] under $105 again, I will back up the tank and put some in it.
As for [[SMN]]
I would like to see the inventor of this God forsaken ETF arrested and tried for “crimes against humanity.” Do not follow me into my folly.
However, one mans trash is another mans treasure. Nonetheless, it blows goat balls.
Finally, [[VMI]] reports earnings after the bell. I have a small position. With worldwide famine occurring, they would have to be absolute fucktards to mess up this quarter.
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Wrong again.
I’ve been long SKF since 85.
Short FED from 33
DSL from 22
LEH from 49
WM from 19
etc.
With VMI up over 7% today, do you think its possible for them to beat estimates by enough to support this??
I live about 3 miles from Monsanto – say when
B:
Not sure.
TradeBot reloading for a surge at 2:30PM?
C and GS trading like they smell something funny.
I’d laugh at you, if I wasn’t in the same sinking ship. I have a real ability to play your bad calls and avoid the good ones.
-DT
buy list
COMV
ENS
SOA
ZOLT
SUG
HXL
Duc said: “With the Banks, you came late to the party, it’s finished.”
The fact that the banks can shelve their trash for a week or even months does not mean the party is over Duc. 2010-2011 is what you fail to understand.
Sierra,
Let’s have a Sierra Gold post on the PG. I’d like to see your thoughts on Gold and your other usual useful information.
whataya say?
Duc,
I’m not sure were even 20% of the way through the banks, not to mention the utilities and other corporate holders of bad commercial paper. It is entirely possible that another I.B. will fail. Even worse it feels like analysts are making ridiculous calls for the sole purpose of shoring up bank’s balance sheets so they don’t implode into complete worthlessness.
Off to the SEC Conference Golf Championship at Sea Island, GA. Keep the market open.
Ag stocks cheap at any price. I bid infinity for all.
Broker I am wondering:
What changed today to all of the sudden make the market a euphoric place for the bulls?
Haven’t we seen this movie before last week or the week before?
When did
$114$115 oil and $8 a bushel corn become a good thing?Has housing really turned around with a spike to the upside?
Is the fed cutting rates a lot from here?
Have earnings really been that stellar?
Could Goldman Sachs be that wrong with their SnP comment yesterday or was that just something I made up in my head?
Recession? What was that? Everyone was right, we were never in a “technical” recession.
So WaMu is booking stellar prime mortgages hand over fist now?
Sub Prime car loans will never default?
What all of the sudden changed other than the market having a sharp upside move in a bear market? Does everyone cover their shorts when this happens or do they wait for the retest and the real gravy?
What am I missing that all of you suddenly know including “Big Mike”?
The Fly lives out in Staten Island, but is still representing Brooklyn! I’m blazing in-and-out of SKF, SRS, and FXP with a stem full o’ stop rocks. Eventually their fuses will light… In the meantime I’ve got DGP and DBA to cover my costs.
Post up some real hip hop:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=VuDob7xDtKk
Honey I don’t know about ag but could you bring
home some milk and butter, the kids are starvin’
Gapping: When did $114 oil and $8 a bushel corn become a good thing?
They’re not a good thing obviously. But they’re both denominated in dollars which are worth-less-than-before. IMO, not backed up by any statistics, the rise in oil, ag, commodities, and to some extent the rise in equities is partially due to the flashing red signal of the depreciating dollar. That is why Fly will be right in the long term. In the meantime the confusion will continue and the Paulson/Bernanke team will help throw $4 a gallon gas on the fire, not to mention the IMF pending sale of gold will muddy the waters even more.
Did I meet my mixed metaphor and cliche quota for the day?
Fly, typically, when you get like this, things reverse.
To be clear, I’m not chuckling at you. No schadenfruede for me.
However, this post does remind me of your “Last Bull in Rome” tirade. Remember that one?
Your greatest strength is your resilience and determinism to stick with your thesis until you see your goals realized. Although I can’t blame you for reducing short exposure.
Look it people, some of my hedge funds friends are telling me that there will be some massive commodities liquidation coming up. The $1,000,000 question is quantifying “when”.
Havent you ever wondered if the US was not in a recession, what would the fair value of these securities be, if there wasnt irrational exuberance? $200 oil? $3 bagel? $20 for a fuckin cereal box? $500 Potash?
Oh, IBM is beating estimates big time today…and COF (capital one) is going to get killleeeddd… a good chunk of their credit card operation is in Britain, and believe it or not, those fuckers are even more levered than us.
Short the fuckin pound too…
By summertime, maybe late summertime, I believe the Fly will be very right. JMO.
LOL.
What is Duc talking about?
Do you think the money raised by the banks is enough?
WM will have to raise money EVERY single qt. for the remainder of the year, in order to retain its credit rating.
You’re being naive.
Dilutive deals will bring these stocks lower.
It’s rather amusing to see Ducati bullish.
If you believe they’re safe, buy the banks Duc. Paulson will be pleased.
I for one believe the banks are capable of massive duplicity and fucked-up-ness and don’t believe any of what they say, and very little of the figures they present.
Beige book just in confirming that we will have a consumer and an corporate profit lead slowdown/ recession.
While I will trade the upticks the long term indicators are down from here. I still remain strong on DOW 10,500 and S&P 1100-1200 range. There seems to be no way out.
Ducati,
Stop being so sore…you have good info, but are dry as hell and jealous of the Fly’s popularity. Bugger off kid!
Big Mike,
Evidently the worst kept secret on IBM…
I sit here chuckling quietly. You fuckers can argue amongst yourselves. I know the inevitable cannot be postponed. Maximum ARM adjustments occured in March. It takes 3 months for the effects to be seen. This whole credit crunch started with housing. Housing prices go down, the crunch becomes worse as banks write down assets. Come June we are going to see an ungodly spike in foreclosures. The decline in average home prices will be even uglier. Its the inevitable that cannot be postponed. The bulls are fighting the laws of nature. They cannot win.
Remember, home prices peaked well in advance of the overall market peaking. Based on my thesis, home prices will bottom prior to the overall market bottoming. Home prices are nowhere near a bottom and therefore equities will go lower.
Duc:
Exactly. Money does not grow on trees.
Much of that money was invested when things were ambiguous. Now that things are perfectly clear, I believe it will be difficult to get good terms on financings.
Sort of like GOOG investing 1 billion in AOL a few years ago. Today, 5% of AOL will probably fetch for 1/10th.
irrational exuberance, anyone?
Hey look……..Ducati chimes in with more wisdom. I love it when he tells everybody what was going to happen…….after it already happened.
Useless fucking tool.
Fuck everybody in this board…here I am…giving out excellent info…and I’m being called a fucking idiot.
Anybody watching E*Trade?
Big Mike:
Seriously, you are a fucking idiot.
Besides making absurd calls on the size of short term market movements (ex: “Monday the market will rally 300 points,” etc) which is something that not even the smartest people in the game (with the exception of those luck few with time machines on hand) can or would do, your posts are riddled with so many insanely retarded statements that even a first year eco student would spit up his beer in a spasm of laughter.
Lets examen just a few of your gems:
“CORE CPI is still fine”
So we can just ignore rising food and energy prices? Considering that the average American spends roughly 13% of their income (older figure) on food and 6.3% on gasoline, higher energy prices do cut meaningfully into consumer spending. This does not even take into consideration the effects of higher oil prices on heating and its use as a raw input in the manufacturing of many products. Big surprise! PPI finished goods costs are up 2.8% YoY. CPI is up 4% YoY
“plus the Fed will start easing”
Start easing? I won’t even address this point specifically. I’ll assume it was written whilst a minor stroke was occurring in your cerebral cortex. I will say, however that you can’t deflate asset bubbles by printing cheap money. Its not working. Thats why the Fed had to get all creative at the discount window.
“and the housing problem is over-stated”
Overstated? Nationwide, foreclosures are up 57% while one in 538 homes is now in some stage of the foreclosure process (hat tip Mish)Not to mention the diminishing wealth effect from deflating savings.
“$115 oil is good because it’s showing DEMAND…”
Higher oil is never good, you dumb fuck (except perhaps for the countries that produce and export it), regardless of demand. Its a de facto tax on consumers and producers. Even if I interpret your statement more loosely as ” higher energy prices are the result of increased demand, which is itself good,” your statement would still be mildly retarded as it assumes that the only factor affecting oil prices is global demand for the stuff, which of course ignores that little known part of the equation known as supply.
“about the food riots…clearly…I mean anybody can see this…they are NOT food riots…they are just protesting for TIBET’s freedom.”
Right. Thats why many emerging market govts are instilling price control measures on food necessities while the world bank held an emergency meeting this past weekend aimed at addressing rising food prices. Also I’m sure many of the Haitians who are rioting currently really care about the plight of Tibet.
I can’t go on any further dissecting all of the errors in your posts. Truly you are one dumb fuck.
Fly: This from Flecks Rap last night. The dude has been a professional short seller for a couple decades. He has learned a few nuances, like getting out of the path of drunken bulls throwing egregious parties.
=========
Staging the Scenery for Illusion of Greenery
Which brings me to tonight’s report from Intel. For some time I have thought that this quarter would be a poor one. I’ve been particularly keen to see what management would say about the future, and how the stock would react to both outcomes. Upon looking through the numbers today, it’s clear to me that Intel has worked the bar much lower, which sets up a complication for tonight’s report.
Originally, Intel estimated earnings of 34 cents for this quarter, which of course it lowered, and then lowered yet again when it preannounced. However, in the wake of that preannouncement, expectations have continued to drift lower. Now the “beat-the-number line” is down to 25 cents — which is obviously about 35% lower than what folks expected in the first place. And, considering that the stock is higher than when this estimate was set, it ought to sink.
However, given the way lunatics like to play the game of beat-the-number, Intel now has itself positioned to potentially win at that game for this quarter. As for next quarter’s estimate of 28 cents, I think that’s probably not doable, but I don’t know what Intel is liable to say. Thinking all that through, I decided to trim my INTC short somewhat and just react to the news as it’s released. I bring all this up because how the market responds to Intel’s results — and, more importantly, what the company has to say — may give us a clue as to how much trouble the tape is in right now.
Honk If You’re Disinclined to Tangle with Armonk
I will also be curious to see how IBM responds to whatever it can report. IBM has a new mainframe to power results for this quarter, and it already said this quarter is fine. Recently, Compuware (CPWR) preannounced positively, indicating that the introduction of IBM’s new product may be proceeding smoothly. And, given the fact that Infosys Technologies (INFY) reported positive results this morning, I’m inclined to give IBM a little rope, as I have no position in the stock at this moment in time.
Other than Intel and IBM, I think the rest of the reports on tap for technology are liable to be on the weak side. So, I plan to adjust my speculative strategies based on dancing around these two potentially positive reports (“positive” in the sense that they might be sufficient to win at beat the number, but not positive if common sense were to prevail). At the moment, my short exposure is about 50%. I will modulate it, depending on what the market dishes up. Regrettably, short-selling is not just about analysis. It’s about having to speculate and understanding the “personalities” of each individual stock, and the bulls on the other side of the trade.
Duc, I agree with you that the process of exchanging non-viable loans or commercial paper for Treasuries, ad infinitum, is a process of semi-nationalization of the banks.
Where I think we differ is in assessing the effects of such a nationalization process on the US economy and markets. I’m sure you’ll correct me if I’m wrong, but I think you view that as a stabilizing process. However, I view it as a seriously destabilizing process due to Bernanke’s proclivity to print the trillions of US dollars needed to fund the process, the massive spiral of problems caused by the unceasing dollar printing, and a Congress that is currently not capable of understanding the process or how to control it in any rational way.
This is far bigger than the problems that were solved by setting up the RTC in the early 90’s and taking over some commercial real estate assets that were then sold off in an orderly manner. I’m not sure what the solution is, but I think Bernanke’s riding his motorcycle straight to hell, do not stop.
btw, there is a nuclear ETF – NLR
WallStreetLurker,
How old are you?
Clearly the idiot is not me, when someone took what I typed as being factual. I mean…what the fuck?! Really? The 300 points rally was a joke referencing towards Fly’s remarks.
I mean…Haiti Tibet Riot? Please tell me AT LEAST you didnt believe that one.
Oh well, ‘printing’ was a metaphorical term…
I feel targeted.
I would talk shit…but I don’t want to jinx this rally and my exploding portfolio.
With my newfound gains via FLY’s short positions, I did upgrade to a new leather chair, as the pleather one was digging into my ass.
The Duc is loose[sic]!
Alright…
shit when Jake gets back from his 3 Martini lunch this will turn into an epic thread.
Looks like the bears are being heavily de-balled now.
Sorry, I’ve been out all day, which is probably a good thing for my nerves, considering… But I just wanted to send out “kudos” to Nullpointer for this bit from the last thread:
i was surprised to find out, after reading the FT this weekend, that my wife and i are not middle class, but rather “upper classâ€, based upon our income
but i gotta tell ya, every time i go to the grocery store or the gas station, i cause a disturbance because i can not control my incessant screaming of “JESUS FUCKING CHRIST!!â€
Topical, true, and funny. In fact, one of the funniest things I’ve read here.
Caveat: being wholly against it, I’m a sucker, sometimes, for “blasphemy humor.”
Ducal —
Do you know nothing of short trading? There’s always more time to be “late” with less risk, than “early” with much detesticulation risk.
By their nature, bears are curving, humped markets — they are not the jagged mountains of the bull market.
Big Mike:
Please. In every post you make retarded proclamations of market tops in this or that. You just proclaimed one in Tech and Ag.
Remember how you just encouraged everyone to go the financial and the homebuilders?
In every post you proclaim go long this or that, and then write retarded commentary to back up your position.
Shut the fuck up
Wow Duc… chill on the sarcasm, mate. I guess it’s a measure of the seriousness of the topic how excited we all get.
You and I differ on our opinion of the Fly’s abilities, but at least he says you two are brothers separated at birth. To me this means although your opinions on the markets are very different (often opposite) you two both provide valuable prisms or windows through which I can view different aspects of the same market. I can appreciate the insights both views give me, whether I agree or not.
Now I’m late getting ready to go to the casino, sorry, till tomorrow Duc.
Just about everyone here agrees that the market and more specificaly the financial and ag stocks are acting totally irrational. Come the end of the summer will they be down? Yes… But they could run up another 25% before they crash. Why try to figure out where they are going to go? Just trade what you know will work. Exxon already said they are increasing CAPEX a ton in 2008 which is great for BHI, SLB HAL etc… RIG can charge anything they want now to drill and oh yeah oil is at $115. Just buy OIH and hold it while these guys destroy numbers.
Why take the risk of shorting financials? We all know COF will shit the bed but who knows that may drive the sector up.
Actually, I just checked my LEH basis. I was “earlier” than I previously stated.
http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/index.php/2007/12/26/fly-sells-leh/
is ducati998 Hank Paulson? …
You guys waste a lot of time…