On Second Thought

I have so much cash right now, my arms involuntarily punch people in the face when walking down the street. I was going to deploy cash today because, traditionally, this is the time to go long, following a steep decline on nebulous news. However, upon further review, I am out of my fucking mind.

Congress is voting on the debt ceiling deal tonight? PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

There is no fucking way I am betting on those dogs. If you are buying stocks today, you are betting on Congress. Are you willing to do that? Well, are you?

I didn’t think so.

I have DECK going into earnings today and I still own BPFH, GSVC and some VXX puts, alongside other small positions. But I’m not buying today, or shorting.

Trade accordingly.

So jobless claims registered below 400,000 for the first time in 16 weeks. WOO-HOO! Rally fucking on, Jack. Who gives a shit about LOGI or JNPR? We have momo going in GMCR, as people get their coffee on.

I must say, the earnings season has been dreadful for a variety of industries, especially communications equipment. I thought we had a boom going in fiber? GLW, CIEN, FNSR, JNPR, CSCO all suck goat balls. It’s really hard to get long that sector. However, the market doesn’t need that sector to bounce, in order to apply “the iron lotus” to the heads of bears.

Providing we stabilize this morning, I will be deploying cash into a variety of stocks. For personal,  I am getting long more XIV and VXX puts, betting that volatility, as always, will compress.

Finally, the steel sector is dead, fucking dead. AKS, X, CLF are all horrible, just to name a few. This market is really hard to navigate, due to the bouncing betty landmines littering the field.

Be careful out there, you nebulous pancake flippers, and try to avoid those murderholes.

Why are we going lower? Is it because the economy is weak? No. How about the Euro debt crisis? Nope, not that either. Are we trading lower on valuation? Funny, definitely not. Think for a second and tell me, why are we trading lower?

Is it the debt ceiling? NO.

I am sure you expected me to say yes. The truth of the matter is, even without the debt ceiling, we’d still be trading lower now, sans the added bonus of panic. The market is stuck in a range because we are digesting massive gains. That’s it. We need a catalyst to trade up to new highs and the economy is not good enough to provide one. Coupled with the dreadful earnings coming out of the tech sector, there are zero reasons to chase stocks. We keep continuing this circle of carnage, where big money sells to retail near tops and buy it back from them at bottoms. The sad truth is, the playing field is not equal, mostly due to resources.

Look, when you’re managing $10 billion, you have room for error. Retail guys with $500k in stocks can’t handle the extreme lower ranges and always opt out near the bottom. I would not be surprised to see people dump out here, ahead of a debt deal and miss out on an epic debt ceiling deal rally.

See, that’s what just happened today. If a deal got done last week, we’d sell off on that news. However, now that we are much lower, we have all but guaranteed a massive short squeeze rally upon confirmation of a deal. What you have to ask yourself now is “what is the high probability trade?” Granted, your bet may be wrong and you’re simply going to have to deal with the consequences. There is no room for mediocrity.

I will try my best and position wisely, with the intention of growing my +16% to 25% on the next upswing.

Remember, the market is uncertain until it isn’t. Everything is a mathematical equation. I try to focus less on the individual names these days, in favor of macro moves. If I sense we are going to spike higher, I have a handful of “go to” stocks that will get the job done for me, irrespective of underlying fundies.

My sense, an inflection point is coming soon. Stay light, but don’t get caught short, else end up on the receiving end of a “fuck you, you’re dead” funeral card.

This is what you get paid for, to nail tops and bottoms with space alien magician precision. I closed out my TZA position today because I captured the “fat middle.” I am not interested in the scraps. Now, I will turn my focus, over the coming days, to buying the blood.

I know your natural instincts are to run for cover in such a barbaric tape. But, just know, this too shall pass. It will become nothing more than a memory or a blip on your little charts, in the big scheme of things. I am not interested in following the herd, which is why my gains stand at 16% year to date, while my peers catch homo-hammers to the cranium.

Some stocks of interest to me include: FLS, WNR, EXK, ROSE, IPGP, CLR, ULTA, PLAB, HFC, ALJ and CVI.

I suspect we might dip another day or two, thanks to weak handed fund managers responding to CNBC. However, as they liquidate, it is your responsibility as a person with strong cognitive thinking to buy the blood and urinate on the heads of those who trade against you.

Into the bell, I faded volatility, buying XIV and August 23 puts on VXX.

NOTE: I will be live on StockTwits tonight, answering your pathetically pressing questions, from 11:30pm to midnight. $FLY Stream. Be there.

I bought a small amount of XIV and VXX puts.

I sold TZA for 125% gain (calls).

FLASHBACK to last week: As seen only in The PPT

I like a lot of things, even some of you. If you are commenting on iBC, consider yourself “Fly approved,” as I thoroughly screen who I let into my inner circle. While some bloggers are happy to be told to “go fuck yourself,” just for the traffic, “The Fly” views iBankCoin as his parlor, where he entertains guests with tales of grandeur and events that bend the imagination to the very end of “imaginarium” (fuck you, it’s a word now). As you walk around my parlor, dressed in a tuxedo, white gloves and top hat, behave like a gentleman and you will be received with open arms. However, should you behave unseemly, your mustache will be knocked off with a fucking gravity hammer and your torso will be sent seaworthy.

As you can see, I nailed the market, yet again. Life is a game of peeks and troughs. You’ve seen me trough in some fucked up trades; but for the most part, I am in a perpetual state of winship. At 70% cash, long a few hundred contracts of TZA August 33 calls, cost basis ranging from $2 to $2.70, I believe it’s fair to say I nailed this downturn.

New policy dictates that the Overall Hybrid score will not be discussed here on iBC, out of respect for paying members. It is proper decorum to withhold such information from the non-paying meatloaf throwers. However, I will tell you now, and again, The PPT nailed the top to the exact day and has guided me to safety, AND MORE.

In closing, my DECK is getting clawhammered; but my BPFH is shooting higher, indeud. I am milking the guy on welfare, via BPFH, as if he was my cow, sitting in a barn, providing the neighborhood with fresh milk and cheese—retailed by yours truly (disgusting).

The countless millionaires and billionaires who don’t pay their “fair share” are on the verge of yet another victory, this time over Prezident O’bama. Seriously, if you just agreed with that statement, you’re a reprehensible goatfucker with a dogs brain.What the fuck is “fair share” anyway? Last time I checked, less than 50% of this country pays any taxes at all. Despite having a fucking magician for a tax attorney, I still managed to pay the cocksuckers in Washington a 6 figure tax bill last year. At the same time, my taxes are going up everywhere I look. I can’t fucking drive on the NJ turnpike for more than 5 miles without paying a toll. And to get onto my God forsaken island, I have to pay $13 for the privilege, via the Verrazano bridge toll.

Whatever the fuck they are doing in Washington isn’t working. Believe me, I am not hating on O’bama only. George Bush was the worst President in the history of the United States, which caused me to lose all faith in the political process. The policy for more than a decade has been to spend like fucking idiots. Why not try something different? Let’s cut the spending by $4 trillion over 10 years, just for shits and giggles. See what happens.

Oh, let’s not touch the seniors, right? Fuck you. My grandmother, rest her soul, used to visit her physicians 5 times per week for 20 years. There is no way she needed to see all of those idiot doctors. Old people use doctor appointments as social gatherings. Someone needs to tell those old fuckers they are NOT entitled to bankrupt the country for the sake of quelling their boredom.

I pay $1,300 per month for insurance and visit the doctor maybe 3 times per year. This society is filled with pussies, who live on hamburgers and fries then panic their way into a coronary, wondering how the fuck it happened.

I am a seller into this market. I am 70% cash, long DECK, BPFH, GSVC and a little WNR, FORM, VCLK with a TZA hedge. I intend to watch the bozos fuck up America’s credit rating and will buy the subsequent dip.

Complacency is high, while competency is low. A bad mix for stocks.

I sold out of 90% of my VCLK position for the explicit purposes of allowing myself to be exposed to DECK earnings, scheduled for this Thursday. My sale of VCLK upped my cash position to about 70%, leaving very little exposure to the market. I intend to build up my DECK position up to 15% of assets going into earnings. The company disappointed last quarter, but still beat estimates with ease. I suspect the guidance they provided was a sandbag, luring estimates lower, just so they could shatter them now. Either way, I have such little exposure, I can afford to take a gamble with DECK. Out of all of the high growth apparel names, DECK is most reasonably valued, trading just 15x next years eps.

VLO is down post earnings, mainly because they suck. I suspect WNR, DK, ALJ and HFC will trade down in sympathy over the next few days, making way for a buying opportunity. The earnings for WNR, HFC, DK and ALJ should be nothing less than stellar.

Finally, I have no intentions to sell GSVC at all, no matter what. If the stock dropped to $12 tomorrow, I’d triple my position. Within 30-60 days, they will announce their new investment. Are you willing to miss out on a potential Twitter investment press release for the sake of adhering to your fucking charts? I didn’t think so. There are so many great privately held companies now. GSVC is in the sweet spot of VC, having exposure to mature, well established companies, like Facebook and Chegg, providing exposure to a market that is normally closed to the average Joe.

It’s only a matter of time before this story get out. And when it does, no matter who you are, you’re gonna be shining my fucking shoes.

NOTE: My favorite way to hedge longs here is still TZA.

NOTE II: As told earlier inside The PPT, I sold out of BLTI.

I sold out of 90% of my VCLK position and added to my TZA.