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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

HERE IS THE VERY BEST PICK

I carefully monitored all of your ideas, ran it through my computer simulator, and none of them came out as being “good.” While it’s true, I appreciate the zeal that many of you put forward, offering slapshot advice for free on the internets and all. But the sad, yet salient, fact remains: you are all but the reader class, nothing more or less.

Some of you might work at large investments banks or even manage billions of dollars for the benefit of your partners. However, when you are here on the site, unfortunately, you are nothing but a reader. That’s not to subtract anything from your persona. I am sure you are a very kind and generous person, even though you are a mere morsel of a specimen in a sea of specimens here at iBC.

The answer to the previous question: “What is your top pick heading into the holidays?” read many things, none of which highlighted the correct answer, provided from the milk of the bosoms of Mother Market herself: YELP.

See, YELP is what one might describe as being a “good pick”, whilst many of yours are simply adequate or “amusing.”

I’d be lying to you if I said that I wasn’t disappointed in you. Shame on your house– for the sins you put forth in these halls tonight.

Good night.

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I Have Lots of Work to Do This Weekend

My current roster of holdings just isn’t working. It has been many months since I’ve underperformed the markets. For whatever reason, I find myself surrounded by the lowliest creature of stocks, unable to trade higher because they’re too busy going lower.

I have a lot of ideas. For one, I want to bulk up on JAZZ. My leverage is extended, which makes my underperformance even more frustrating because these stocks will knife lower in a bad tape. If you have stocks that are trading down in a good tape, just know, they will murder you in a bad. It’s best to divest from those stocks before they become an albatross.

The boys over at 12631 and After Hours with Option Addict are killing it on a daily basis. If you haven’t given our premium services a shot, due to lack of commitment towards the art of trading or miserly ways, do yourselves a favour and baptise yourselves with the fire of iBC and her affiliate services.

Into the bell, I dumped out another 0.7%, effectively ruining my Friday.

I will have some names to invest in by Sunday evening.


UPDATE ANDROID LOVERS:

The iBC Android App is almost done. Here is a vid from our developer.

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CHINA IS A GIANT GHETTO

They can never overtake the United State because they are without top hat.

Many years ago, inside of The PPT, I purged all stocks related to China and segregated them into its very own sector, named “CHINESE BURRITOS”–because you never know what you’re gonna find inside. On the main screening page, I allowed for a check box that says “not a China stock”–because everything reported by these companies is fiction.

It cannot be a coincidence. This must be state policy, to defraud the Americans, rob them of their coin. Or, there mental disorders are running rampant throughout China.

The truth is a little simpler. The Chinese people are very new money. The overwhelming majority of their millionaires were created over the past 10 years. If you look at the stats, you will not believe it This upper class are foaming from the mouth consumers. They make Russian oligarchs look like misers, buying the best first growth Bordeaux, fine art, even replicating French cities because they can.

Basically, all of this new money is making the “try-hards” crazy, which in turn is leading to vast amount of securities fraud in America.

The SEC needs to ACT NOW and purge the Chinese from our top hatted markets. The most recent fraud allegation is NQ. I genuinely feel sorry for their shareholders, as it’s nearly impossible for the layman to discover fraud without vast resources.

AVOID ALL CHINA NAMES. I believe this NQ situation has tainted the pool and the seasonal November decline for Chinese shares will prove to be somewhat horrendous.

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Flat is For Idiots

I can’t believe I am flat for the day. I see some of my peers making money and I want to kill someone because of it. Just because I am up nearly 60% for the year doesn’t mean I shouldn’t be up 70% or even 200%. If there’s one thing that I’ve learned well over the years it is this: the stock market knows no limits. If you are a well prepared and talented trader, you can make millions, billions, and become someone of importance. Naturally, one cannot do this by himself. One needs investors to believe in one’s crap. If you are an introverted hermit, I’m afraid you’re destined for a life of over-bearing poverty, subsiding on gluttonous cans of spam.

The window cleaners are gone and so is the cigarette flavoured perfume they drenched themselves in.

I hate starting new positions on Friday, since “anything can happen over the weekend.” I’ve been spending my spare time obsessing on two things.

1. Playing chess.

2. Reading olde newspapers on Google news, circa World War 1- World War 2. Absolutely fascinating stuff. We were all taught this stuff in history class. However, when reading the actual reports in real newspapers, from people living in that era, you get a totally different vibe from it. You can sense the anxiety of the writer as he describes Hitler’s advance throughout Europe. I can spend days reading this stuff. You can even date back to the revolutionary days, read about what the men with powdered wigs and wooden teeth were up to.

One stock that is peaking my interest is ANGI. What a dog. However, this flush out represents opportunity for those who aren’t in it and who believe in the longer term story. Eventually, ANGI gets acquired, in my opinion of course.

Out of all of my stocks, I am most excited to see what BALT reports this quarter. I believe they will surprise many, on the upside, and finally earn the respect they deserve–from the vagrant, degenerate, speculator class.

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Very, Very Busy: BEING ENTERTAINED

I am listening to this hilarious NQ conference call, while reading Muddy Waters rebuttals on Twitter. Suffice it to say, I am entertained. One of my favorite quotes from the call is “Hold on a second Sir, we are translating into Chinese.”

On a side note, the window cleaners are here and wreak of cigarette smoke and coffee. I literally want to kill them.

Markets look fine; but my stocks look like cancer.

I’m up 0.4% so far.

Oh, one more thing before I go: stop referring to your investment forays as “battles” and “wars”. You’re just a bunch of jackasses with down stocks.

Thanks.

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What Hasn’t Run Yet?

Enough of the creative writing: let’s get down to brass tacks.

Every heap of trash has had its 15 minutes of fame this year, so what’s left? What has Mother Market neglected?

Using The PPT engine, I have 332 stocks to comb through (members only link, pal). The criteria is simple: stocks down 10% or more over the past six month, organized by industry, and a minimum market cap of $100 million.

Rubber shoes and played out hand bags: CROX (-13%), COH (-12%).

An olde Devil stock: CALL (-19%)

Steel and Iron: SIM (-19%), MTL (-12%), ROCK (-18%)

Vitamins: VSI (-11%)

Nail polish and books: SBH (-10%), BKS (-17%)

Silver: MVG (-25%), CDE (-16%), PAAS (-12%)

Semis: UTEK (-22%), IMI (-37%), BRCM (-24%), MLNX (-42%), PSMI (-14%), ADNC (-14%)

Grub: PNRA (-13%), RT (-35%), BJRI (-13%)

Homies: TPH (-16%), MDC (-15%), KBH (-18%)

REIT, Retail: MITT (-25%), CCG (-22%), AGNC (-20%), ACC (-17%)

REIT, Healthcare: UHT (-19%), HCP (-19%)

REIT, Diversified: ARR (-25%), CYS (-23%), JMI (-30%), ANH (-14%)

Refiners: ALDW (-37%), MPC (-15%), DK (-30%), ALJ (-32%)

Oil Men: CAM (-14%), CIE (-16%), HK (-21%), EVEP (-20%), KWK (-14%), IOC (-18%)

Mortgage: DX (-11%), RWT (-18%), NLY (-17%)

Medical Equipment: ISRG (-22%), OFIX (-35%), MDCI (-11%)

Internet cast outs: ANGI (-27%), TZOO (-15%), INAP (-20%)

Miners: PCG (-45%), TRQ (-30%), ACI (-13%)

Gold:  GORO (-47%), BVN (-33%), SAND (-27%), BAA (-29%), ANV (-61%)

Building and Materials: TXI (-11%), OC (-10%), HW (-15%)

Foreign Utilities: SBS (-25%), CIG (-14%), EOC -13%

Utilities: SO (-10%), FE (-17%), ELP (-21%)

Biotech: AMRN (-67%), DVAX (-53%), ARNA -22%), AGN (-16%), ARIA (-81%), DNDN (-46%), GTXI (-63%), VICL (-60%), ACHN (-63%), AVEO (-72%), SQNM (-39%), OGXI (-21%)

Retail: JCP (-56%), SHOS (-32%), BONT (-18%),

Beaten Down Tech: BBRY (-44%), EBIX (-38%), VCLK (-33%), RLOC (-19%)

Software: MODN (-52%), UPIP (-15%), SWI (-24%), NUAN (-27%)

Apparel: CBK (-14%), ARO (-31%), ANF (-21%), AEO (-23%), FRAN (-35%)

Ag: UAN (-19%), MOS (-23%), POT (-20%), RNF (-16%), IPI (-17%), SQM (-43%)

Beer and Soda: CCU (-17%), FMX (-20%), KOF (-26%), COT (-25%)

 

 

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I Am Missing This Run

So far, I am positioned wrong for the rally. Between my boat and refinery exposure, I’ve managed to trade my way out of a fine rally today. If it wasn’t for JAZZ, AMBC and HK, I’d be down today.

All of the money is racing back towards housing. Stocks like MHO and USG are on fire. With rates coming in again, I expect the REITs will start heading back to previous highs. The whole taper scare business is behind us. All we have to fear is fear itself, which is voided null by the good folks at The Federal Reserve.

I will give my boat and refinery plays some more rope, hopefully not to hang me with. My other low brow stocks are disgraceful. I’ve fixed myself with a ridiculous portfolio. Only in a treu Costanza world will I make money, as presently constituted, into Halloween.

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What Do You Think of Muddy Waters?

I know they do great work and have an eye for fraud. But what is your opinion of that firm, the way they destroy shareholder value with a singular blog post? To be fair, I suppose it’s no different from an analyst research note at Goldman or Morgan. However, not all short only research houses are created equally.

Due to the success of Muddy Waters, many copy cats have sprung up, especially on vagrant, low brow, website: Seeking Alpha. The perverts at SA don’t have a clue about stocks. I really believe many of them are rookie investors, trying to make a name for themselves by besmirching publicly traded corporations.

To be a successful contrarian is to be a genius. When markets are going lower, if you are able to muddle through it and make money on the long side: you’re a genius.

The same can be said about successful short sellers in run away bull markets. Those guys are insanely smart.

But the question I want answered is this: who is getting Muddy Waters’ research before it is published? Is it sold to selected hedge funds? Judging by the sudden drop in NQ today, I’d guess that answer to be NO. If the report was leaked in advance, the stock would’ve careened lower before the news.

Either way, this adds a very unwelcomed element to trading. It’s the equivalent to skipping through a minefield in a banana suit, while gorillas try to peel your skin off.

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Missed Opportunities

I recall doing a lot of research on CWEI. I even highlighted some of my early work, here on the site. The stock has nearly doubled since then.

I was also short JCP from $19. I covered my short in the teens, after making some money, even though I felt the stock would trade to zero.

I was also big into NFLX at $60, before Icahn got in. I kicked it out for a minor profit. After Icahn got into HLF, I bought some of that. And, like NFLX, I sold it too early.

Let’s not forget FTK. I did an immense amount of work on that one, having bought a few million shares in the $1’s. I sold it around 4ish. Now it’s $20+. Had I held it, my life would’ve changed.

Other missed opportunities include TRIP, Z, GSVC, ICEL, PPC, SVU, ULTA, MU, BX, SNE, SOL, YGE, FSLR, NAV, CTRP, DECK, NXPI, CXO, CLR, GWW, CIEN, TEX and FLS.

I am sure I missed a few.

Am I mad at these “missed opportunities?”

Absolutely not.

I know that doesn’t make much sense, especially since some of these gains are outright astronomical. The fact remains, I am incredibly capable of finding winners. I am not talking ordinary 10-20% returns. I’ve been able to swing and miss at multiple 100-500% gainers, over the past ten years. All the while, I’ve been banking coin, steady returns of 20-90% since 2003.

On the upside, I am still young, getting better every day, and we’re in a rip roaring bull market. I am confident that, one of these days, I will have the internal fortitude to see one of these ideas through.

Until then, the “struggle” will continue.

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