Ok, I have a balancing act going now — short REITs, banks, oil, long GE, gold, bonds, tech. It’s working, for now. I took my GE position to a 10% weighting based on the assumption that markets are rallying and people will continue to worry about GE into asset sales. It’s wholly possible that GE bends and breaks, shatters my dreams of climbing hard and arduous walls. But it’s also possible that I can get a god damned trade out of it first, and then parlay into comfort amidst cigar fumes and whiskey.
I don’t think markets can rally with WTI getting poleaxed like this. Even still, we might get a bifurcated market, with pockets of strength. For now, I’m betting on GE being one of those zones of zen.
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Interesting thesis. I would assume that GE would lead any further downside action, but given the strength that i noted yesterday, your idea (market down, GE up) might pay off.
Still, I’m clearing out my short-term positions and raising cash. The FED will likely raise rates, which means the the larger move (a rally, in this case) would be caused if they don’t. Personally I’m hoping that they don’t raise rates so the lemmings will buy stocks on news that the FED’s view on the economy is worsening.
So I’ve got a simple plan for tomorrow:
1) Rates steady -> stock rally -> buy Jan/Feb puts
2) Rates raised -> bonds drop -> buy high quality bonds
Mkt only rallies if they raise.
Maybe best case for bulls is FED raises, but then messages that they will only raise twice next year.
The manipulators of who gets what will announce their moves to the unwashed at 2PM est tomorrow. When did their bosses get the info? What did their bosses bid them to do?
I probably won’t do much based solely on yesterday’s newspaper showing up on my stoop.
Vix still gaining momentum.